Estimated impact of the Southern Border Plan on migration intentions. The results are obtained from ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions of Eq. (1), including the full set of control variables, state of origin, state of apprehension, and time fixed effects, as well as an interaction with a linear time trend. Confidence intervals are calculated at the 95% level, and the standard errors are clustered at the origin department level. The parameters for the quarters 14q3–16q4 are jointly statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. ^a Quarter when the SBP was introduced.