Examining the risk of selective migration or fertility composition change by Marcellus HYPE location and tests of exclusion restriction: District-level DiD models
| . | All Districts (n = 282) . | Low-Poverty Districts (n = 131) . | High-Poverty Districts (n = 151) . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Coef. . | SE . | Coef. . | SE . | Coef. . | SE . |
| A. Risk of Selective Migration: ACS and PA Tax Data | ||||||
| ln(number of women aged 15–44) | 0.0034 | 0.0125 | 0.0211 | 0.0196 | −0.0123 | 0.0154 |
| % population aged 15–44 | 0.0050 | 0.0033 | 0.0053 | 0.0032 | 0.0057 | 0.0052 |
| % women aged 15–44 married | 0.0077 | 0.0085 | −0.0004 | 0.0140 | 0.0147 | 0.0098 |
| % household heads cohabiting | 0.0017 | 0.0008* | 0.0027 | 0.0011* | 0.0010 | 0.0011 |
| % enrolled in higher education | −0.0011 | 0.0021 | −0.0038 | 0.0022† | 0.0017 | 0.0032 |
| Property sales income | 201.9638 | 323.5368 | −48.7388 | 531.9747 | 511.8022 | 396.8011 |
| B. Risk of Change in Fertility Composition: Birth Certificate Data | ||||||
| ln(total births) | −0.0037 | 0.0356 | −0.0291 | 0.0538 | 0.0174 | 0.0498 |
| General fertility rate for those aged 15–44 | 0.5476 | 0.4897 | 0.3986 | 0.5126 | 0.7494 | 0.8212 |
| % first births to those aged 15–44 | 0.6720 | 1.1539 | 1.3106 | 1.8902 | −0.1852 | 1.0803 |
| % births to married individuals | 0.2411 | 1.1420 | 0.1346 | 1.5192 | 0.5051 | 1.6634 |
| Births by birthing parent's age | ||||||
| % to those aged 15–19 | −0.0199 | 0.5462 | 0.4570 | 0.5891 | −0.6270 | 0.8410 |
| % to those aged 20–24 | 1.4478 | 1.0133 | 0.4446 | 1.1989 | 2.4167 | 1.6358 |
| % to those aged 25–34 | −0.8960 | 0.9612 | −0.4354 | 1.1086 | −1.4784 | 1.5513 |
| % to those aged 35–44 | −0.5319 | 0.6409 | −0.4661 | 0.9946 | −0.3113 | 0.6636 |
| Births by birthing parent's educational attainment for those aged 15–44 | ||||||
| % with high school diploma or less | 1.7158 | 1.2012 | 5.0765 | 1.8345** | −1.1652 | 1.3078 |
| % with some college | −1.4445 | 0.9499 | −3.1806 | 1.6439† | 0.2192 | 1.1376 |
| % with college degree or more | −0.2714 | 1.2264 | −1.8959 | 2.0915 | 0.9460 | 1.3421 |
| % births to non-Hispanic White persons | 0.2565 | 0.6059 | 0.3882 | 0.8480 | 0.0905 | 0.8621 |
| C. Test of the Exclusion Restriction and Environmental or Contextual Changes: Multiple Data Sources | ||||||
| Formaldehyde air pollution (lbs./m3) | 915.108 | 533.606† | 719.8304 | 721.8464 | 1,124.7310 | 804.3774 |
| Water pollution (milligrams/liter) | ||||||
| Antimony levels | 0.000054 | 0.000036 | 0.000028 | 0.000010** | 0.000073 | 0.000063 |
| Arsenic levels | 0.000138 | 0.000074† | 0.000105 | 0.000067 | 0.000163 | 0.000123 |
| Barium levels | 0.002284 | 0.004420 | 0.002308 | 0.003130 | 0.002104 | 0.008359 |
| Chromium levels | −0.000019 | 0.000024 | −0.000036 | 0.000043 | −0.000005 | 0.000026 |
| Mercury levels | 0.000002 | 0.000001 | 0.000003 | 0.000002 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Selenium levels | 0.000009 | 0.000011 | 0.000008 | 0.000005† | 0.000009 | 0.000020 |
| Thallium levels | −0.000022 | 0.000021 | −0.000009 | 0.000006 | −0.000031 | 0.000037 |
| PA EPA compliance violations | −2.7406 | 4.5076 | 3.4163 | 1.7422† | −7.3932 | 7.6955 |
| Traffic per capita (1,000 miles/capita) | 0.1877 | 0.9588 | 0.5537 | 1.6708 | −0.2696 | 0.8623 |
| Local roads added (miles) | 1.6234 | 79.5333 | 109.7227 | 55.1526* | −97.7975 | 143.4534 |
| Mean gross rent (000s $) | 5.0252 | 7.4453 | −6.6416 | 11.8568 | 14.7997 | 8.7514† |
| % housing owner-occupied | 0.0003 | 0.0044 | −0.0041 | 0.0048 | 0.0039 | 0.0071 |
| . | All Districts (n = 282) . | Low-Poverty Districts (n = 131) . | High-Poverty Districts (n = 151) . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Coef. . | SE . | Coef. . | SE . | Coef. . | SE . |
| A. Risk of Selective Migration: ACS and PA Tax Data | ||||||
| ln(number of women aged 15–44) | 0.0034 | 0.0125 | 0.0211 | 0.0196 | −0.0123 | 0.0154 |
| % population aged 15–44 | 0.0050 | 0.0033 | 0.0053 | 0.0032 | 0.0057 | 0.0052 |
| % women aged 15–44 married | 0.0077 | 0.0085 | −0.0004 | 0.0140 | 0.0147 | 0.0098 |
| % household heads cohabiting | 0.0017 | 0.0008* | 0.0027 | 0.0011* | 0.0010 | 0.0011 |
| % enrolled in higher education | −0.0011 | 0.0021 | −0.0038 | 0.0022† | 0.0017 | 0.0032 |
| Property sales income | 201.9638 | 323.5368 | −48.7388 | 531.9747 | 511.8022 | 396.8011 |
| B. Risk of Change in Fertility Composition: Birth Certificate Data | ||||||
| ln(total births) | −0.0037 | 0.0356 | −0.0291 | 0.0538 | 0.0174 | 0.0498 |
| General fertility rate for those aged 15–44 | 0.5476 | 0.4897 | 0.3986 | 0.5126 | 0.7494 | 0.8212 |
| % first births to those aged 15–44 | 0.6720 | 1.1539 | 1.3106 | 1.8902 | −0.1852 | 1.0803 |
| % births to married individuals | 0.2411 | 1.1420 | 0.1346 | 1.5192 | 0.5051 | 1.6634 |
| Births by birthing parent's age | ||||||
| % to those aged 15–19 | −0.0199 | 0.5462 | 0.4570 | 0.5891 | −0.6270 | 0.8410 |
| % to those aged 20–24 | 1.4478 | 1.0133 | 0.4446 | 1.1989 | 2.4167 | 1.6358 |
| % to those aged 25–34 | −0.8960 | 0.9612 | −0.4354 | 1.1086 | −1.4784 | 1.5513 |
| % to those aged 35–44 | −0.5319 | 0.6409 | −0.4661 | 0.9946 | −0.3113 | 0.6636 |
| Births by birthing parent's educational attainment for those aged 15–44 | ||||||
| % with high school diploma or less | 1.7158 | 1.2012 | 5.0765 | 1.8345** | −1.1652 | 1.3078 |
| % with some college | −1.4445 | 0.9499 | −3.1806 | 1.6439† | 0.2192 | 1.1376 |
| % with college degree or more | −0.2714 | 1.2264 | −1.8959 | 2.0915 | 0.9460 | 1.3421 |
| % births to non-Hispanic White persons | 0.2565 | 0.6059 | 0.3882 | 0.8480 | 0.0905 | 0.8621 |
| C. Test of the Exclusion Restriction and Environmental or Contextual Changes: Multiple Data Sources | ||||||
| Formaldehyde air pollution (lbs./m3) | 915.108 | 533.606† | 719.8304 | 721.8464 | 1,124.7310 | 804.3774 |
| Water pollution (milligrams/liter) | ||||||
| Antimony levels | 0.000054 | 0.000036 | 0.000028 | 0.000010** | 0.000073 | 0.000063 |
| Arsenic levels | 0.000138 | 0.000074† | 0.000105 | 0.000067 | 0.000163 | 0.000123 |
| Barium levels | 0.002284 | 0.004420 | 0.002308 | 0.003130 | 0.002104 | 0.008359 |
| Chromium levels | −0.000019 | 0.000024 | −0.000036 | 0.000043 | −0.000005 | 0.000026 |
| Mercury levels | 0.000002 | 0.000001 | 0.000003 | 0.000002 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Selenium levels | 0.000009 | 0.000011 | 0.000008 | 0.000005† | 0.000009 | 0.000020 |
| Thallium levels | −0.000022 | 0.000021 | −0.000009 | 0.000006 | −0.000031 | 0.000037 |
| PA EPA compliance violations | −2.7406 | 4.5076 | 3.4163 | 1.7422† | −7.3932 | 7.6955 |
| Traffic per capita (1,000 miles/capita) | 0.1877 | 0.9588 | 0.5537 | 1.6708 | −0.2696 | 0.8623 |
| Local roads added (miles) | 1.6234 | 79.5333 | 109.7227 | 55.1526* | −97.7975 | 143.4534 |
| Mean gross rent (000s $) | 5.0252 | 7.4453 | −6.6416 | 11.8568 | 14.7997 | 8.7514† |
| % housing owner-occupied | 0.0003 | 0.0044 | −0.0041 | 0.0048 | 0.0039 | 0.0071 |
Notes: Each cell represents a separate OLS regression. Across all models, data are restricted to PA districts with 51+% of land area above either the HYPE or the Periphery of the Marcellus Shale geological formation. Coefficients shown (ϖ) are for the interaction between location above the HYPE and postboom period (2011–2012) (i.e., HYPEd × Postt). These district-level DiD models use IPWs and population weights with robust and clustered standard errors and include period fixed effects.
p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01