Nonparametric bandwidth estimation: Impact of the PAJE reform on fertility and labor supply
| . | A: Birth Probability (announcement effect) . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | –.004 | –.010 | –.013 | .006 | ||||
| (.009) | (.010) | (.012) | (.019) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | –.014† | –.013† | –.008 | –.013 | ||||
| (.007) | (.008) | (.009) | (.015) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,374 | 1,268 | 1,158 | 964 | 777 | 649 | 373 | 336 |
| R2 | .000 | .002 | .001 | .003 | .001 | .001 | .000 | .002 |
| . | B: Birth Probability (implementation effect) . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | .006 | .004 | .003 | .000 | ||||
| (.004) | (.004) | (.006) | (.011) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | –.008* | –.009† | –.006 | –.012 | ||||
| (.004) | (.005) | (.004) | (.009) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,374 | 1,268 | 1,158 | 964 | 777 | 649 | 373 | 336 |
| R2 | .002 | .032 | .001 | .003 | .000 | .003 | .000 | .006 |
| . | C: Hours of Work/Week for Women . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | 1.256* | 1.275* | 1.165 | 0.859 | ||||
| (0.533) | (0.582) | (0.727) | (0.919) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | 0.310 | 0.674 | 1.576* | 2.088* | ||||
| (0.564) | (0.641) | (0.769) | (0.975) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,167 | 1,106 | 998 | 857 | 656 | 588 | 304 | 310 |
| R2 | .005 | .000 | .005 | .001 | .004 | .007 | .003 | .015 |
| . | D: Hours of Work/Week for Men . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | 1.458** | 1.513* | 1.889* | 1.115 | ||||
| (0.551) | (0.603) | (0.733) | (1.026) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | 1.707** | 1.418* | 1.617† | 2.116† | ||||
| (0.605) | (0.693) | (0.852) | (1.112) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,248 | 1,230 | 1,069 | 942 | 732 | 637 | 349 | 324 |
| R2 | .006 | .007 | .006 | .005 | .009 | .006 | .003 | .011 |
| Year Fixed Effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Distance From Threshold | ±10,000 | ±10,000 | ±7,500 | ±7,500 | ±5,000 | ±5,000 | ±2,500 | ±2,500 |
| . | A: Birth Probability (announcement effect) . | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | –.004 | –.010 | –.013 | .006 | ||||
| (.009) | (.010) | (.012) | (.019) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | –.014† | –.013† | –.008 | –.013 | ||||
| (.007) | (.008) | (.009) | (.015) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,374 | 1,268 | 1,158 | 964 | 777 | 649 | 373 | 336 |
| R2 | .000 | .002 | .001 | .003 | .001 | .001 | .000 | .002 |
| . | B: Birth Probability (implementation effect) . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | .006 | .004 | .003 | .000 | ||||
| (.004) | (.004) | (.006) | (.011) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | –.008* | –.009† | –.006 | –.012 | ||||
| (.004) | (.005) | (.004) | (.009) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,374 | 1,268 | 1,158 | 964 | 777 | 649 | 373 | 336 |
| R2 | .002 | .032 | .001 | .003 | .000 | .003 | .000 | .006 |
| . | C: Hours of Work/Week for Women . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | 1.256* | 1.275* | 1.165 | 0.859 | ||||
| (0.533) | (0.582) | (0.727) | (0.919) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | 0.310 | 0.674 | 1.576* | 2.088* | ||||
| (0.564) | (0.641) | (0.769) | (0.975) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,167 | 1,106 | 998 | 857 | 656 | 588 | 304 | 310 |
| R2 | .005 | .000 | .005 | .001 | .004 | .007 | .003 | .015 |
| . | D: Hours of Work/Week for Men . | |||||||
| . | (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | (4) . | (5) . | (6) . | (7) . | (8) . |
| Half Benefits | 1.458** | 1.513* | 1.889* | 1.115 | ||||
| (0.551) | (0.603) | (0.733) | (1.026) | |||||
| Zero Benefits | 1.707** | 1.418* | 1.617† | 2.116† | ||||
| (0.605) | (0.693) | (0.852) | (1.112) | |||||
| Number of Observations | 1,248 | 1,230 | 1,069 | 942 | 732 | 637 | 349 | 324 |
| R2 | .006 | .007 | .006 | .005 | .009 | .006 | .003 | .011 |
| Year Fixed Effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Distance From Threshold | ±10,000 | ±10,000 | ±7,500 | ±7,500 | ±5,000 | ±5,000 | ±2,500 | ±2,500 |
Notes: Robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. Each cell presents a regression discontinuity estimator using household-level data in panels A and B and individual-level data in panels C and D. Analysis is restricted to households within ±10,000 euros of yearly household income from the income threshold defined by the 2014 policy reform in columns 1 and 2, within ±7,500 euros in columns 3 and 4, within ±5,000 euros in columns 5 and 6, and within ±2,500 euros in columns 7 and 8. In panel A, the dependent variable is a dummy variable indicator for the probability of birth at the household level, nine months after the law was first discussed in March 2013. In panel B, the dependent variable is a dummy variable indicator for the probability of birth at the household level, nine months after the law came into force in April 2014. In panels C and D, the dependent variables refer to the number of hours of work per week for women and men, respectively. “Half benefits” is a dummy variable indicator equal to 1 for households that receive half the amount of PAJE benefits and to 0 for households that receive the full PAJE benefits. “Zero benefits” is a dummy variable indicator equal to 1 for households that receive zero PAJE benefits and to 0 for households that are eligible for full or half the PAJE benefits. Distance from the discontinuity threshold is reported in the last row.
†p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01