Risk of incarceration by age 38 and effects of declining incarceration rates: Real and synthetic cohort analyses for the United States, 1999 and 2019
| . | . | Risk of Incarceration by Age 38 . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Scenario . | All . | Men . | WhiteMen . | HispanicMen . | BlackMen . |
| A | Real cohort 1999–2019 (%) | 6.5 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 12.8 | 33.7 |
| B | Synthetic cohort 1999 (%) | 5.8 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 12.7 | 35.8 |
| C | Synthetic cohort 2019 (%) | 4.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 10.1 | 18.3 |
| A – B | Effect of declining incarceration rates for 1999 cohort | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | −2.1 |
| C – A | Effect of declining incarceration rates for 2019 cohort | −1.8 | −3.4 | −2.1 | −2.6 | −15.4 |
| C – B | Effect of declining incarceration rates on synthetic cohort risk | −1.0 | −2.3 | −0.8 | −2.5 | −17.4 |
| . | . | Risk of Incarceration by Age 38 . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Scenario . | All . | Men . | WhiteMen . | HispanicMen . | BlackMen . |
| A | Real cohort 1999–2019 (%) | 6.5 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 12.8 | 33.7 |
| B | Synthetic cohort 1999 (%) | 5.8 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 12.7 | 35.8 |
| C | Synthetic cohort 2019 (%) | 4.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 10.1 | 18.3 |
| A – B | Effect of declining incarceration rates for 1999 cohort | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | −2.1 |
| C – A | Effect of declining incarceration rates for 2019 cohort | −1.8 | −3.4 | −2.1 | −2.6 | −15.4 |
| C – B | Effect of declining incarceration rates on synthetic cohort risk | −1.0 | −2.3 | −0.8 | −2.5 | −17.4 |
Note: Differences represent percentage-point differences.
Source: Authors' calculations from multiple-decrement life tables for real and synthetic cohort risks of incarceration in state or federal prison.