Predicted probabilities (shown in %, with standard errors in parentheses) from Firth logit models estimating demographic variations in sexual identity mobility
. | . | Heterosexual . | Gay or Lesbian . | Bisexual . | Other . | Prefer Not to Say . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | Overall Mobility . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . |
Covariate . | Model 1 . | Model 2a . | Model 2b . | Model 3a . | Model 3b . | Model 4a . | Model 4b . | Model 5a . | Model 5b . | Model 6a . | Model 6b . |
Age Group at T | |||||||||||
16–24 (ref.) | 7.89 | 4.03 | 2.88 | 0.26 | 0.69 | 1.09 | 2.07 | 0.65 | 0.88 | 2.08 | 1.59 |
(0.62) | (0.46) | (0.37) | (0.13) | (0.19) | (0.25) | (0.36) | (0.17) | (0.23) | (0.32) | (0.29) | |
25–34 | 6.19* | 2.63** | 2.86 | 0.29 | 0.25* | 0.73 | 0.94** | 0.86 | 0.41* | 1.79 | 1.85 |
(0.41) | (0.27) | (0.29) | (0.10) | (0.08) | (0.15) | (0.17) | (0.16) | (0.11) | (0.23) | (0.23) | |
35–44 | 5.02*** | 2.43*** | 2.08* | 0.18 | 0.25* | 0.45** | 0.64*** | 0.78 | 0.40* | 1.30* | 1.73 |
(0.32) | (0.23) | (0.21) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.12) | (0.13) | (0.10) | (0.17) | (0.19) | |
45–54 | 5.64*** | 2.35*** | 2.68 | 0.18 | 0.28* | 0.56* | 0.36*** | 0.89 | 0.45 | 1.76 | 1.92 |
(0.34) | (0.22) | (0.24) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.11) | (0.09) | (0.14) | (0.10) | (0.19) | (0.20) | |
55–64 | 5.11*** | 2.29*** | 2.45 | 0.12 | 0.09** | 0.29*** | 0.30*** | 0.71 | 0.37* | 1.80 | 1.95 |
(0.35) | (0.24) | (0.25) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.14) | (0.10) | (0.22) | (0.22) | |
65+ | 7.42 | 2.73* | 4.39** | 0.10 | 0.22* | 0.37** | 0.35*** | 0.83 | 0.51 | 3.53** | 2.04 |
(0.43) | (0.27) | (0.34) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.10) | (0.15) | (0.12) | (0.31) | (0.24) | |
Sex | |||||||||||
Women (ref.) | 6.32 | 2.81 | 3.05 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 2.13 | 1.96 |
(0.21) | (0.14) | (0.15) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.06) | (0.13) | (0.12) | |
Men | 5.67* | 2.44 | 2.59* | 0.23 | 0.42** | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.43 | 1.82 | 1.73 |
(0.23) | (0.16) | (0.16) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.09) | (0.07) | (0.13) | (0.13) | |
Ethnicity | |||||||||||
White (ref.) | 5.04 | 2.26 | 2.30 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 1.58 | 1.48 |
(0.15) | (0.10) | (0.10) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.08) | |
Non-White | 15.54*** | 6.07*** | 8.71*** | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.90* | 0.97* | 2.40*** | 0.83* | 6.59*** | 5.58*** |
(0.80) | (0.51) | (0.66) | (0.12) | (0.09) | (0.19) | (0.18) | (0.36) | (0.20) | (0.60) | (0.53) | |
Higher Degree | |||||||||||
Consistently no from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 (ref.) | 7.30 | 2.93 | 3.80 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 1.13 | 0.53 | 2.58 | 2.20 |
(0.23) | (0.15) | (0.17) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.07) | (0.14) | (0.13) | |
Consistently yes from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 | 4.47*** | 2.25** | 1.70*** | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.35*** | 0.42 | 1.32*** | 1.42*** |
(0.22) | (0.16) | (0.14) | (0.04) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.12) | (0.12) | |
Newly obtained from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 | 4.74** | 2.67 | 1.50*** | 0.17 | 0.55* | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 0.39 | 0.78*** | 1.66 |
(0.63) | (0.47) | (0.38) | (0.12) | (0.18) | (0.15) | (0.15) | (0.32) | (0.17) | (0.27) | (0.46) | |
Enter Different-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.00 | 2.65 | 2.79 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.98 | 1.89 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 6.71 | 2.70 | 3.94* | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.62 | 2.30 | 1.31 |
(0.70) | (0.44) | (0.58) | (0.10) | (0.07) | (0.23) | (0.23) | (0.28) | (0.21) | (0.45) | (0.33) | |
Exit Different-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.01 | 2.58 | 2.86 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.48 | 2.00 | 1.81 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.10) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 6.52 | 3.57* | 2.76 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 1.90 | 2.49 |
(0.61) | (0.46) | (0.41) | (0.06) | (0.12) | (0.16) | (0.23) | (0.23) | (0.17) | (0.34) | (0.40) | |
Enter Same-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 5.93 | 2.58 | 2.86 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 1.98 | 1.86 |
(0.16) | (0.10) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 43.25*** | 25.06*** | 0.97 | 2.14** | 17.42*** | 4.15*** | 6.23*** | 2.81 | 2.01 | 10.41*** | 0.82 |
(6.02) | (5.13) | (1.35) | (1.71) | (4.32) | (2.22) | (2.28) | (2.25) | (1.65) | (4.06) | (1.16) | |
Exit Same-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.00 | 2.65 | 2.84 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 1.98 | 1.84 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 23.19*** | 2.46 | 5.49 | 8.40*** | 6.04*** | 3.51** | 2.08 | 3.83* | 2.33 | 7.84** | 11.61*** |
(5.18) | (1.96) | (2.84) | (3.43) | (3.02) | (2.17) | (1.65) | (2.37) | (1.88) | (3.50) | (4.18) | |
Bayesian Information Criterion | 9,895 | 5,392 | 5,616 | 599 | 740 | 1,519 | 1,764 | 2,046 | 1,385 | 4,242 | 4,089 |
. | . | Heterosexual . | Gay or Lesbian . | Bisexual . | Other . | Prefer Not to Say . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | Overall Mobility . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . | Move Out . | Move Into . |
Covariate . | Model 1 . | Model 2a . | Model 2b . | Model 3a . | Model 3b . | Model 4a . | Model 4b . | Model 5a . | Model 5b . | Model 6a . | Model 6b . |
Age Group at T | |||||||||||
16–24 (ref.) | 7.89 | 4.03 | 2.88 | 0.26 | 0.69 | 1.09 | 2.07 | 0.65 | 0.88 | 2.08 | 1.59 |
(0.62) | (0.46) | (0.37) | (0.13) | (0.19) | (0.25) | (0.36) | (0.17) | (0.23) | (0.32) | (0.29) | |
25–34 | 6.19* | 2.63** | 2.86 | 0.29 | 0.25* | 0.73 | 0.94** | 0.86 | 0.41* | 1.79 | 1.85 |
(0.41) | (0.27) | (0.29) | (0.10) | (0.08) | (0.15) | (0.17) | (0.16) | (0.11) | (0.23) | (0.23) | |
35–44 | 5.02*** | 2.43*** | 2.08* | 0.18 | 0.25* | 0.45** | 0.64*** | 0.78 | 0.40* | 1.30* | 1.73 |
(0.32) | (0.23) | (0.21) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.12) | (0.13) | (0.10) | (0.17) | (0.19) | |
45–54 | 5.64*** | 2.35*** | 2.68 | 0.18 | 0.28* | 0.56* | 0.36*** | 0.89 | 0.45 | 1.76 | 1.92 |
(0.34) | (0.22) | (0.24) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.11) | (0.09) | (0.14) | (0.10) | (0.19) | (0.20) | |
55–64 | 5.11*** | 2.29*** | 2.45 | 0.12 | 0.09** | 0.29*** | 0.30*** | 0.71 | 0.37* | 1.80 | 1.95 |
(0.35) | (0.24) | (0.25) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.14) | (0.10) | (0.22) | (0.22) | |
65+ | 7.42 | 2.73* | 4.39** | 0.10 | 0.22* | 0.37** | 0.35*** | 0.83 | 0.51 | 3.53** | 2.04 |
(0.43) | (0.27) | (0.34) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.10) | (0.15) | (0.12) | (0.31) | (0.24) | |
Sex | |||||||||||
Women (ref.) | 6.32 | 2.81 | 3.05 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 2.13 | 1.96 |
(0.21) | (0.14) | (0.15) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.06) | (0.13) | (0.12) | |
Men | 5.67* | 2.44 | 2.59* | 0.23 | 0.42** | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.43 | 1.82 | 1.73 |
(0.23) | (0.16) | (0.16) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.09) | (0.07) | (0.13) | (0.13) | |
Ethnicity | |||||||||||
White (ref.) | 5.04 | 2.26 | 2.30 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 1.58 | 1.48 |
(0.15) | (0.10) | (0.10) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.08) | |
Non-White | 15.54*** | 6.07*** | 8.71*** | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.90* | 0.97* | 2.40*** | 0.83* | 6.59*** | 5.58*** |
(0.80) | (0.51) | (0.66) | (0.12) | (0.09) | (0.19) | (0.18) | (0.36) | (0.20) | (0.60) | (0.53) | |
Higher Degree | |||||||||||
Consistently no from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 (ref.) | 7.30 | 2.93 | 3.80 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 1.13 | 0.53 | 2.58 | 2.20 |
(0.23) | (0.15) | (0.17) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.07) | (0.14) | (0.13) | |
Consistently yes from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 | 4.47*** | 2.25** | 1.70*** | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.35*** | 0.42 | 1.32*** | 1.42*** |
(0.22) | (0.16) | (0.14) | (0.04) | (0.06) | (0.08) | (0.10) | (0.06) | (0.07) | (0.12) | (0.12) | |
Newly obtained from | |||||||||||
T to T + 1 | 4.74** | 2.67 | 1.50*** | 0.17 | 0.55* | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 0.39 | 0.78*** | 1.66 |
(0.63) | (0.47) | (0.38) | (0.12) | (0.18) | (0.15) | (0.15) | (0.32) | (0.17) | (0.27) | (0.46) | |
Enter Different-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.00 | 2.65 | 2.79 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1.98 | 1.89 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 6.71 | 2.70 | 3.94* | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.62 | 2.30 | 1.31 |
(0.70) | (0.44) | (0.58) | (0.10) | (0.07) | (0.23) | (0.23) | (0.28) | (0.21) | (0.45) | (0.33) | |
Exit Different-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.01 | 2.58 | 2.86 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.48 | 2.00 | 1.81 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.10) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 6.52 | 3.57* | 2.76 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 1.90 | 2.49 |
(0.61) | (0.46) | (0.41) | (0.06) | (0.12) | (0.16) | (0.23) | (0.23) | (0.17) | (0.34) | (0.40) | |
Enter Same-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 5.93 | 2.58 | 2.86 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 1.98 | 1.86 |
(0.16) | (0.10) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 43.25*** | 25.06*** | 0.97 | 2.14** | 17.42*** | 4.15*** | 6.23*** | 2.81 | 2.01 | 10.41*** | 0.82 |
(6.02) | (5.13) | (1.35) | (1.71) | (4.32) | (2.22) | (2.28) | (2.25) | (1.65) | (4.06) | (1.16) | |
Exit Same-Sex Partnership | |||||||||||
No (ref.) | 6.00 | 2.65 | 2.84 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 1.98 | 1.84 |
(0.16) | (0.11) | (0.11) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.06) | (0.05) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
Yes | 23.19*** | 2.46 | 5.49 | 8.40*** | 6.04*** | 3.51** | 2.08 | 3.83* | 2.33 | 7.84** | 11.61*** |
(5.18) | (1.96) | (2.84) | (3.43) | (3.02) | (2.17) | (1.65) | (2.37) | (1.88) | (3.50) | (4.18) | |
Bayesian Information Criterion | 9,895 | 5,392 | 5,616 | 599 | 740 | 1,519 | 1,764 | 2,046 | 1,385 | 4,242 | 4,089 |
Notes: N = 22,673 respondents. T = Wave 3 (2011–2013). T + 1 = Wave 9 (2017–2019). Asterisks indicate levels of statistical significance for differences from the reference category. Intercepts were estimated in all models but were omitted from the table.
*p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 (two-tailed)