Table 3

Sibling fixed-effect models showing the predictive power of first names of eldest children on the family size of adult brothers in the 1900 U.S. Census

Fertility for 1900 (siblings linked 1870)Fertility for 1930 (siblings linked 1900)Fertility for 1940 (siblings linked 1910)
Sibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + UrbanSibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + UrbanSibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + Urban
Fertility Score (of name) 0.137*
(0.065) 
0.126
(0.065) 
0.166***
(0.034) 
0.132***
(0.034) 
0.136***
(0.026) 
0.115***
(0.026) 
Urban (vs. rural)  −0.375***
(0.090) 
 −0.413***
(0.034) 
 −0.279***
(0.022) 
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $)  −0.005
(0.003) 
 −0.014***
(0.001) 
 −0.010***
(0.001) 
N 8,810 8,810 36,311 36,311 60,101 60,101 
R2 .680 .682 .651 .657 .646 .649 
Within R2 .159 .165 .138 .154 .119 .128 
Fertility for 1900 (siblings linked 1870)Fertility for 1930 (siblings linked 1900)Fertility for 1940 (siblings linked 1910)
Sibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + UrbanSibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + UrbanSibling Fixed Effect+ Occ Inc + Urban
Fertility Score (of name) 0.137*
(0.065) 
0.126
(0.065) 
0.166***
(0.034) 
0.132***
(0.034) 
0.136***
(0.026) 
0.115***
(0.026) 
Urban (vs. rural)  −0.375***
(0.090) 
 −0.413***
(0.034) 
 −0.279***
(0.022) 
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $)  −0.005
(0.003) 
 −0.014***
(0.001) 
 −0.010***
(0.001) 
N 8,810 8,810 36,311 36,311 60,101 60,101 
R2 .680 .682 .651 .657 .646 .649 
Within R2 .159 .165 .138 .154 .119 .128 

Notes: Sibling linkages are based on coresidence in the census from 30 years earlier, with between-census record linkage provided through a recent IPUMS-related project (Abramitzky, Boustan, and Rashid 2020). Linkages require that the father have a valid occupation score. Children must be linkable to their mother, who is in the correct age range. Also, fathers, mothers, and children are White and U.S.-born. Standard errors are shown in parentheses. All models also include the eldest child's age.

*p < .05; ***p < .001

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