Sibling fixed-effect models showing the predictive power of first names of eldest children on the family size of adult brothers in the 1900 U.S. Census
. | Fertility for 1900 (siblings linked 1870) . | Fertility for 1930 (siblings linked 1900) . | Fertility for 1940 (siblings linked 1910) . | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . |
Fertility Score (of name) | 0.137* (0.065) | 0.126 (0.065) | 0.166*** (0.034) | 0.132*** (0.034) | 0.136*** (0.026) | 0.115*** (0.026) |
Urban (vs. rural) | −0.375*** (0.090) | −0.413*** (0.034) | −0.279*** (0.022) | |||
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.014*** (0.001) | −0.010*** (0.001) | |||
N | 8,810 | 8,810 | 36,311 | 36,311 | 60,101 | 60,101 |
R2 | .680 | .682 | .651 | .657 | .646 | .649 |
Within R2 | .159 | .165 | .138 | .154 | .119 | .128 |
. | Fertility for 1900 (siblings linked 1870) . | Fertility for 1930 (siblings linked 1900) . | Fertility for 1940 (siblings linked 1910) . | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . | Sibling Fixed Effect . | + Occ Inc + Urban . |
Fertility Score (of name) | 0.137* (0.065) | 0.126 (0.065) | 0.166*** (0.034) | 0.132*** (0.034) | 0.136*** (0.026) | 0.115*** (0.026) |
Urban (vs. rural) | −0.375*** (0.090) | −0.413*** (0.034) | −0.279*** (0.022) | |||
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $) | −0.005 (0.003) | −0.014*** (0.001) | −0.010*** (0.001) | |||
N | 8,810 | 8,810 | 36,311 | 36,311 | 60,101 | 60,101 |
R2 | .680 | .682 | .651 | .657 | .646 | .649 |
Within R2 | .159 | .165 | .138 | .154 | .119 | .128 |
Notes: Sibling linkages are based on coresidence in the census from 30 years earlier, with between-census record linkage provided through a recent IPUMS-related project (Abramitzky, Boustan, and Rashid 2020). Linkages require that the father have a valid occupation score. Children must be linkable to their mother, who is in the correct age range. Also, fathers, mothers, and children are White and U.S.-born. Standard errors are shown in parentheses. All models also include the eldest child's age.
*p < .05; ***p < .001