Table 1

Regression models showing the predictive power of first names of oldest children on number of children born to mothers in the 1900 U.S. Census (full-count census data sample)

Model 0: TrainModel 1: TestModel 2: Test (1) + AgeModel 3: Test (2) + GeographyModel 4: Test (3) + OccupationModel 5: Test (4) + Surname
Fertility Score (of name) 1.000***
(0.006) 
0.962***
(0.006) 
0.673***
(0.006) 
0.350***
(0.006) 
0.323***
(0.006) 
0.278***
(0.006) 
Age of Eldest Child   0.183***
(0.001) 
0.174***
(0.001) 
0.173***
(0.001) 
0.174***
(0.001) 
Urban (vs. rural)    −0.480*** −0.292***
(0.007) 
−0.314***
(0.008) 
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $)     −0.019***
(0.0003) 
−0.019***
(0.0003) 
County Fixed Effect    ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Last Name Fixed Effect      ✓ 
Constant 0.000
(0.023) 
0.143***
(0.023) 
−1.396***
(0.022) 
— — — 
N 617,871 617,086 617,086 617,086 617,086 617,086 
R2 .040 .037 .186 .271 .276 .409 
Adjusted R2 .040 .037 .186 .268 .273 .283 
Model 0: TrainModel 1: TestModel 2: Test (1) + AgeModel 3: Test (2) + GeographyModel 4: Test (3) + OccupationModel 5: Test (4) + Surname
Fertility Score (of name) 1.000***
(0.006) 
0.962***
(0.006) 
0.673***
(0.006) 
0.350***
(0.006) 
0.323***
(0.006) 
0.278***
(0.006) 
Age of Eldest Child   0.183***
(0.001) 
0.174***
(0.001) 
0.173***
(0.001) 
0.174***
(0.001) 
Urban (vs. rural)    −0.480*** −0.292***
(0.007) 
−0.314***
(0.008) 
Occupational Income Score (of father in 1,000s of 1950 $)     −0.019***
(0.0003) 
−0.019***
(0.0003) 
County Fixed Effect    ✓ ✓ ✓ 
Last Name Fixed Effect      ✓ 
Constant 0.000
(0.023) 
0.143***
(0.023) 
−1.396***
(0.022) 
— — — 
N 617,871 617,086 617,086 617,086 617,086 617,086 
R2 .040 .037 .186 .271 .276 .409 
Adjusted R2 .040 .037 .186 .268 .273 .283 

Notes: Training data (50%) are used to generate fertility scores. Set-aside test data (50%) are used to check the predictive power of scores. Analysis was restricted to names that appear 30 or more times, to native-born White women aged 35–44, and to oldest children younger than 21. Standard errors are shown in parentheses. “Geography” includes urban/rural dummy variable and state fixed effects.

***p < .001

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