Duke University Press

Table 5

Uncertainty in residual estimates of unauthorized foreign-born population due to uncertaintyin underlying assumptions (standard deviation across 1,000 iterations; estimates in 1,000s)

		Uncertainty in Residual Estimate Due to Uncertainty in:
Year	Residual Estimate	Coverage Error	Emigration	Mortality	All Factors
Year	Residual Estimate	2005	11,713	1,778	1,342	11	2,200
2006	12,070	1,839	1,418	12	2,295
2007	12,220	1,887	1,495	13	2,380
2008	11,080	1,114	1,474	13	1,745
2009	10,591	782	1,516	14	1,568
2010	10,254	498	1,553	15	1,472
2011	10,229	484	1,632	16	1,548
2012	10,249	473	1,709	17	1,626
2013	10,301	458	1,785	18	1,702
2014	10,461	455	1,860	19	1,783
2015	10,577	445	1,933	20	1,861
2016	10,717	480	2,024	22	1,970
2017	10,800	515	2,140	23	2,100
2018	10,773	507	2,271	25	2,232

		Uncertainty in Residual Estimate Due to Uncertainty in:
Year	Residual Estimate	Coverage Error	Emigration	Mortality	All Factors
Year	Residual Estimate	2005	11,713	1,778	1,342	11	2,200
2006	12,070	1,839	1,418	12	2,295
2007	12,220	1,887	1,495	13	2,380
2008	11,080	1,114	1,474	13	1,745
2009	10,591	782	1,516	14	1,568
2010	10,254	498	1,553	15	1,472
2011	10,229	484	1,632	16	1,548
2012	10,249	473	1,709	17	1,626
2013	10,301	458	1,785	18	1,702
2014	10,461	455	1,860	19	1,783
2015	10,577	445	1,933	20	1,861
2016	10,717	480	2,024	22	1,970
2017	10,800	515	2,140	23	2,100
2018	10,773	507	2,271	25	2,232

Note: Residual estimates are averages of 1,000 iterations wherein assumptions for coverage error, emigration, and mortality are randomly drawn from postulated distributions; the estimate for 2018 is 10.8 million. However, when assumptions are fixed at their mean levels, the estimate for 2018 is 11 million.

View Large

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only