Illustration of the effects of assumptions about coverage error, emigration, and mortality
| . | Panel A: Unauthorized Foreign-Born, 35 Years After Baseline . | Panel B: Percentage Difference After Baseline . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | No. of Unauthorized Foreign-Born . | Percentage Difference From Original Estimate . | 40 Years . | 45 Years . | 50 Years . |
| (1) Original estimatea | 6,934 | ||||
| If assumptions increased by 50%: | |||||
| (2) Coverage error among unauthorized foreign-born (10%–15%) | 7,341 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| (3) Coverage error among LNH foreign-born (1.0%–1.5%) | 7,095 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (4) Emigration rate among LNH foreign-born (1.0%–1.5%) | 9,409 | 36 | 49 | 61 | 70 |
| (5) Mortality rate among LNH foreign-born (.0010–.0015) | 7,194 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| . | Panel A: Unauthorized Foreign-Born, 35 Years After Baseline . | Panel B: Percentage Difference After Baseline . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | No. of Unauthorized Foreign-Born . | Percentage Difference From Original Estimate . | 40 Years . | 45 Years . | 50 Years . |
| (1) Original estimatea | 6,934 | ||||
| If assumptions increased by 50%: | |||||
| (2) Coverage error among unauthorized foreign-born (10%–15%) | 7,341 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| (3) Coverage error among LNH foreign-born (1.0%–1.5%) | 7,095 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (4) Emigration rate among LNH foreign-born (1.0%–1.5%) | 9,409 | 36 | 49 | 61 | 70 |
| (5) Mortality rate among LNH foreign-born (.0010–.0015) | 7,194 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
Based on the scenario in which there are 1,000 LNH admissions each year, 10% coverage error among unauthorized immigrants, 1% coverage error among LPRs, 1% emigration rate among LNH foreign-born, and 0.1% mortality rate among LNH foreign-born; in addition, the census enumerates 35,000 foreign-born 35 years after baseline, and the enumerated foreign-born population increases by 1.5% each year. LNH = LPR/naturalized/humanitarian.