Table 2

Predicted probability of marriage at five, 10, and 14 years after educational transition, by risk parameterization, gender, parental education, and respondent education, NLSY97

Since High School CompletionSince College EnrollmentSince BA Completion
5 Years10 Years14 Years5 Years10 Years14 Years5 Years10 Years
Women         
 High school graduate         
  Parent <BA .32 (.27, .37) .50 (.44, .57) .60 (.53, .67) — — — — — 
  Parent ≥BA .29 (.15, .42) .45 (.29, .61) .57 (.39, .75) — — — — — 
 Some college         
  Parent <BA .29 (.26, .33) .54 (.49, .59) .66 (.61, .72) .28 (.24, .32) .54 (.48, .60) .66 (.60, .72) — — 
  Parent ≥BA .25 (.20, .31) .56 (.48, .63) .66 (.58, .74) .24 (.19, .30) .55 (.46, .64) .66 (.57, .75) — — 
 Bachelor's degree         
  Parent <BA (first gen.) .16 (.13, .19) .47 (.42, .52) .65 (.60, .71) .15 (.12, .18) .47 (.41, .52) .65 (.59, .72) .40 (.33, .47) .67 (.58, .76) 
  Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) .12 (.10, .15)* .47 (.42, .52) .69 (.63, .74) .12 (.10, .15) .47 (.41, .53) .69 (.63, .74) .40 (.33, .46) .70 (.62, .78) 
Men         
 High school graduate         
  Parent <BA .22 (.18, .25) .42 (.36, .48) .49 (.43, .55) — — — — — 
  Parent ≥BA .21 (.12, .30) .33 (.23, .44) .40 (.28, .53) — — — — — 
 Some college         
  Parent <BA .21 (.18, .24) .45 (.40, .50) .57 (.52, .63) .21 (.18, .25) .44 (.39, .50) .56 (.50, .62) — — 
  Parent ≥BA .14 (.11, .18)** .34 (.28, .40)** .48 (.41, .55) .14 (.10, .17)*** .34 (.28, .40)** .49 (.41, .56) — — 
 Bachelor's degree         
  Parent <BA (first gen.) .18 (.14, .21) .47 (.41, .52) .66 (.60, .72) .16 (.13, .20) .45 (.39, .52) .65 (.58, .72) .38 (.30, .45) .63 (.54, .72) 
  Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) .09 (.07, .11)*** .39 (.34, .44)* .62 (.56, .68) .09 (.07, .11)*** .39 (.34, .45) .62 (.56, .69) .32 (.26, .39) .66 (.57, .74) 
Since High School CompletionSince College EnrollmentSince BA Completion
5 Years10 Years14 Years5 Years10 Years14 Years5 Years10 Years
Women         
 High school graduate         
  Parent <BA .32 (.27, .37) .50 (.44, .57) .60 (.53, .67) — — — — — 
  Parent ≥BA .29 (.15, .42) .45 (.29, .61) .57 (.39, .75) — — — — — 
 Some college         
  Parent <BA .29 (.26, .33) .54 (.49, .59) .66 (.61, .72) .28 (.24, .32) .54 (.48, .60) .66 (.60, .72) — — 
  Parent ≥BA .25 (.20, .31) .56 (.48, .63) .66 (.58, .74) .24 (.19, .30) .55 (.46, .64) .66 (.57, .75) — — 
 Bachelor's degree         
  Parent <BA (first gen.) .16 (.13, .19) .47 (.42, .52) .65 (.60, .71) .15 (.12, .18) .47 (.41, .52) .65 (.59, .72) .40 (.33, .47) .67 (.58, .76) 
  Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) .12 (.10, .15)* .47 (.42, .52) .69 (.63, .74) .12 (.10, .15) .47 (.41, .53) .69 (.63, .74) .40 (.33, .46) .70 (.62, .78) 
Men         
 High school graduate         
  Parent <BA .22 (.18, .25) .42 (.36, .48) .49 (.43, .55) — — — — — 
  Parent ≥BA .21 (.12, .30) .33 (.23, .44) .40 (.28, .53) — — — — — 
 Some college         
  Parent <BA .21 (.18, .24) .45 (.40, .50) .57 (.52, .63) .21 (.18, .25) .44 (.39, .50) .56 (.50, .62) — — 
  Parent ≥BA .14 (.11, .18)** .34 (.28, .40)** .48 (.41, .55) .14 (.10, .17)*** .34 (.28, .40)** .49 (.41, .56) — — 
 Bachelor's degree         
  Parent <BA (first gen.) .18 (.14, .21) .47 (.41, .52) .66 (.60, .72) .16 (.13, .20) .45 (.39, .52) .65 (.58, .72) .38 (.30, .45) .63 (.54, .72) 
  Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) .09 (.07, .11)*** .39 (.34, .44)* .62 (.56, .68) .09 (.07, .11)*** .39 (.34, .45) .62 (.56, .69) .32 (.26, .39) .66 (.57, .74) 

Notes: 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses (bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations). Predictions are based on an individual with the following characteristics: White, Protestant, grew up with both biological parents, Northeast resident, graduated high school at 18, enrolled in college at 19, and graduated college at 23. BA = bachelor's degree.

*p  <  .05; **p  <  .01; ***p  <  .001 (significance test of differences between parental education groups: Parent ≥BA vs. Parent <BA; bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations)

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