Predicted probability of marriage at five, 10, and 14 years after educational transition, by risk parameterization, gender, parental education, and respondent education, NLSY97
. | Since High School Completion . | Since College Enrollment . | Since BA Completion . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | 5 Years . | 10 Years . | 14 Years . | 5 Years . | 10 Years . | 14 Years . | 5 Years . | 10 Years . |
Women | ||||||||
High school graduate | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .32 (.27, .37) | .50 (.44, .57) | .60 (.53, .67) | — | — | — | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .29 (.15, .42) | .45 (.29, .61) | .57 (.39, .75) | — | — | — | — | — |
Some college | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .29 (.26, .33) | .54 (.49, .59) | .66 (.61, .72) | .28 (.24, .32) | .54 (.48, .60) | .66 (.60, .72) | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .25 (.20, .31) | .56 (.48, .63) | .66 (.58, .74) | .24 (.19, .30) | .55 (.46, .64) | .66 (.57, .75) | — | — |
Bachelor's degree | ||||||||
Parent <BA (first gen.) | .16 (.13, .19) | .47 (.42, .52) | .65 (.60, .71) | .15 (.12, .18) | .47 (.41, .52) | .65 (.59, .72) | .40 (.33, .47) | .67 (.58, .76) |
Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) | .12 (.10, .15)* | .47 (.42, .52) | .69 (.63, .74) | .12 (.10, .15) | .47 (.41, .53) | .69 (.63, .74) | .40 (.33, .46) | .70 (.62, .78) |
Men | ||||||||
High school graduate | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .22 (.18, .25) | .42 (.36, .48) | .49 (.43, .55) | — | — | — | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .21 (.12, .30) | .33 (.23, .44) | .40 (.28, .53) | — | — | — | — | — |
Some college | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .21 (.18, .24) | .45 (.40, .50) | .57 (.52, .63) | .21 (.18, .25) | .44 (.39, .50) | .56 (.50, .62) | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .14 (.11, .18)** | .34 (.28, .40)** | .48 (.41, .55) | .14 (.10, .17)*** | .34 (.28, .40)** | .49 (.41, .56) | — | — |
Bachelor's degree | ||||||||
Parent <BA (first gen.) | .18 (.14, .21) | .47 (.41, .52) | .66 (.60, .72) | .16 (.13, .20) | .45 (.39, .52) | .65 (.58, .72) | .38 (.30, .45) | .63 (.54, .72) |
Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) | .09 (.07, .11)*** | .39 (.34, .44)* | .62 (.56, .68) | .09 (.07, .11)*** | .39 (.34, .45) | .62 (.56, .69) | .32 (.26, .39) | .66 (.57, .74) |
. | Since High School Completion . | Since College Enrollment . | Since BA Completion . | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
. | 5 Years . | 10 Years . | 14 Years . | 5 Years . | 10 Years . | 14 Years . | 5 Years . | 10 Years . |
Women | ||||||||
High school graduate | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .32 (.27, .37) | .50 (.44, .57) | .60 (.53, .67) | — | — | — | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .29 (.15, .42) | .45 (.29, .61) | .57 (.39, .75) | — | — | — | — | — |
Some college | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .29 (.26, .33) | .54 (.49, .59) | .66 (.61, .72) | .28 (.24, .32) | .54 (.48, .60) | .66 (.60, .72) | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .25 (.20, .31) | .56 (.48, .63) | .66 (.58, .74) | .24 (.19, .30) | .55 (.46, .64) | .66 (.57, .75) | — | — |
Bachelor's degree | ||||||||
Parent <BA (first gen.) | .16 (.13, .19) | .47 (.42, .52) | .65 (.60, .71) | .15 (.12, .18) | .47 (.41, .52) | .65 (.59, .72) | .40 (.33, .47) | .67 (.58, .76) |
Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) | .12 (.10, .15)* | .47 (.42, .52) | .69 (.63, .74) | .12 (.10, .15) | .47 (.41, .53) | .69 (.63, .74) | .40 (.33, .46) | .70 (.62, .78) |
Men | ||||||||
High school graduate | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .22 (.18, .25) | .42 (.36, .48) | .49 (.43, .55) | — | — | — | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .21 (.12, .30) | .33 (.23, .44) | .40 (.28, .53) | — | — | — | — | — |
Some college | ||||||||
Parent <BA | .21 (.18, .24) | .45 (.40, .50) | .57 (.52, .63) | .21 (.18, .25) | .44 (.39, .50) | .56 (.50, .62) | — | — |
Parent ≥BA | .14 (.11, .18)** | .34 (.28, .40)** | .48 (.41, .55) | .14 (.10, .17)*** | .34 (.28, .40)** | .49 (.41, .56) | — | — |
Bachelor's degree | ||||||||
Parent <BA (first gen.) | .18 (.14, .21) | .47 (.41, .52) | .66 (.60, .72) | .16 (.13, .20) | .45 (.39, .52) | .65 (.58, .72) | .38 (.30, .45) | .63 (.54, .72) |
Parent ≥BA (cont. gen.) | .09 (.07, .11)*** | .39 (.34, .44)* | .62 (.56, .68) | .09 (.07, .11)*** | .39 (.34, .45) | .62 (.56, .69) | .32 (.26, .39) | .66 (.57, .74) |
Notes: 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses (bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations). Predictions are based on an individual with the following characteristics: White, Protestant, grew up with both biological parents, Northeast resident, graduated high school at 18, enrolled in college at 19, and graduated college at 23. BA = bachelor's degree.
*p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 (significance test of differences between parental education groups: Parent ≥BA vs. Parent <BA; bootstrapped, 1,000 iterations)