Duke University Press

Table 1

Estimated annual pregnancy-related deaths in the United States before and after a hypothetical ban on induced abortion, assuming no increase in the rate of unsafe abortions

Racial and Ethnic Group

A. PRMR, 2014–2017 (per 100,000 births)^a

B. No. of Births, 2017^b

C. No. of Estimated Deaths Before Ban^c

D. No. of Estimated Abortions Before Ban (denied after ban)^d

E. No. ofAdditionalDeaths in First Year of Ban^e(% increase)

F. No. ofAdditionalDeaths in Later Years of Ban^f(% increase)

G. Annual Rate Expressed as Lifetime Risk Before Total Ban^g

H. Annual Rate Expressed as Lifetime Risk in Later Years of Total Ban^h

Non-Hispanic White

13.4

1,992,461

267

334,060

11 (4%)

33 (13%)

1 in 4,500

1 in 3,900

Non-Hispanic Black

41.7

560,715

234

238,000

28 (12%)

78 (33%)

1 in 1,300

1 in 1,000

Hispanic

11.6

898,764

104

213,940

6 (6%)

18 (18%)

1 in 4,300

1 in 3,600

Non-Hispanic Other

17.3

403,560

76,310

3 (5%)

10 (14%)

naⁱ

All

17.3

3,855,500

675

862,300

49 (7%)

140 (21%)

1 in 3,300

1 in 2,800

National pregnancy-related mortality ratios (PRMRs) by racial and ethnic group, 2014–2017 (CDC Division of Reproductive Health 2020). Note that the PRMR for the non-Hispanic other category is the overall PRMR because the compositions of the births and abortions in this category do not align with the subgroups for which PRMRs are available.

Published total births by racial and ethnic group. Non-Hispanic other includes all births to individuals who were not identified as non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, or Hispanic of any race. This partitioning of births by race and ethnicity was selected because it was the most precise one for which annual abortions may be estimated based on published estimated totals.

Estimated pregnancy-related deaths before a ban were calculated as $\frac{(B i r t h s_{r}) (P R M R_{r})}{100, 000}$ using births from column B and PRMR from column A (rounded to the nearest whole number). Note that the All in this column is the sum of deaths from all racial and ethnic groups.

Estimated abortions in 2017 were calculated as 93% of estimated abortions by racial and ethnic group from 2014 (the most recent year for which group-specific estimates of counts or rates of abortions are available) on the basis of the ratio of total estimated abortions in 2014 to 2017 (the most recent year for which total estimated abortions are available) (Jones and Jerman 2017; Jones et al. 2019). This calculation assumes that declines did not vary across groups. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10.

Estimated as follows for each racial and ethnic group (r):

\frac{0.3 (A b o r t i o n s d e n i e d_{r}) (P R M R_{r})}{100, 000} - \frac{(A b o r t i o n s d e n i e d_{r}) (0.7)}{100, 000},

where abortions denied are the estimated abortions before a ban from column D and 0.7 represents the estimated mortality related to pregnancies ending in induced abortion in the United States (Raymond and Grimes 2012).

Calculated as above, but using 0.8 instead of 0.3, because each abortion denied is estimated to yield 0.8 births in subsequent years.

Estimated probability that a 15-year-old would die from a pregnancy-related cause if the prevailing fertility and PRMRs continue for her reproductive life, assuming negligible mortality before age 50. Estimated for each racial and ethnic group (r) by: $\frac{100, 000}{(T F R_{2017, r}) (P R M R_{r})}$ ⁠. Figures are rounded to the nearest 1 in 100.

Estimated probability that a 15-year-old would die from a pregnancy-related cause if current PRMRs continue for her reproductive life and prevailing fertility rates in her racial and ethnic group increased because of all induced abortions being denied, such that the total fertility rate for her racial and ethnic group became

T F R_{p o s t, r} = T F R_{2017, r} (\frac{B i r t h s_{2017, r} + 0.8 (A b o r t i o n s d e n i e d_{r})}{B i r t h s_{2017, r}})

where $T F R_{2017, r}$ is the published total fertility rate for group r in 2017, $B i r t h s_{2017, r}$ is the published number of births for group r in 2017, and $A b o r t i o n s d e n i e d_{r}$ is the same as the estimated number of abortions in group r in 2017. Then the risk of death is 1 in $\frac{100, 000}{(T F R_{p o s t, r}) (P R M R_{r})}$ (rounded to the nearest 1 in 100).

ⁱ na = not applicable. The population of non-Hispanic other is heterogeneous and does not align with published TFRs, and thus the probability is not estimated for this group.

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