Robustness checks: Spatial correlation and time window
| Variables . | OLS SAR TFR 2014 – 2009 (1) . | IV SAR TFR 2014 – 2009 (2) . | OLS TFR 2015 – 2009 (3) . | IV TFR 2015 – 2009 (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emigration Rate, 2009–2014 | 0.094* | 0.115* | 0.106* | 0.156* |
| (0.038) | (0.053) | (0.042) | (0.069) | |
| GDP, 2004 | –0.055 | –0.110 | –0.285 | –0.431 |
| (0.246) | (0.258) | (0.211) | (0.286) | |
| Unemployment Rate, 2004 | –0.175 | –0.201 | –0.520* | –0.544** |
| (0.246) | (0.248) | (0.225) | (0.206) | |
| North | –0.024 | –0.027 | –0.037 | –0.028 |
| (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.032) | (0.036) | |
| Center | –0.002 | –0.000 | –0.034 | –0.031 |
| (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.030) | (0.031) | |
| Islands | –0.008 | –0.009 | 0.000 | –0.003 |
| (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.017) | |
| Constant | –0.017 | –0.017 | 0.012 | 0.016 |
| (0.063) | (0.064) | (0.047) | (0.051) | |
| Number of Observations | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| R2 | .136 | .115 | ||
| Average Outcome in 2008 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 |
| Average Change in Dependent Variable | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.057 | –0.057 |
| Model | GS2SLS | GS2SLS | OLS | 2SLS |
| F Excluded Instrument | 33.83 |
| Variables . | OLS SAR TFR 2014 – 2009 (1) . | IV SAR TFR 2014 – 2009 (2) . | OLS TFR 2015 – 2009 (3) . | IV TFR 2015 – 2009 (4) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emigration Rate, 2009–2014 | 0.094* | 0.115* | 0.106* | 0.156* |
| (0.038) | (0.053) | (0.042) | (0.069) | |
| GDP, 2004 | –0.055 | –0.110 | –0.285 | –0.431 |
| (0.246) | (0.258) | (0.211) | (0.286) | |
| Unemployment Rate, 2004 | –0.175 | –0.201 | –0.520* | –0.544** |
| (0.246) | (0.248) | (0.225) | (0.206) | |
| North | –0.024 | –0.027 | –0.037 | –0.028 |
| (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.032) | (0.036) | |
| Center | –0.002 | –0.000 | –0.034 | –0.031 |
| (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.030) | (0.031) | |
| Islands | –0.008 | –0.009 | 0.000 | –0.003 |
| (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.017) | |
| Constant | –0.017 | –0.017 | 0.012 | 0.016 |
| (0.063) | (0.064) | (0.047) | (0.051) | |
| Number of Observations | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| R2 | .136 | .115 | ||
| Average Outcome in 2008 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 |
| Average Change in Dependent Variable | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.057 | –0.057 |
| Model | GS2SLS | GS2SLS | OLS | 2SLS |
| F Excluded Instrument | 33.83 |
Notes: Robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. Observations are Italian provinces. Columns 1 and 2 show results from a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model using generalized spatial two-stage least squares (GS2SLS); column 3 shows results from an OLS model; and column 4 shows results from a two-stage least squares (2SLS) model. All specifications control for macro-area fixed effects. Outcomes are the TFR change between 2009 and 2014 in columns 1 and 2, and the TFR change between 2009 and 2015 in columns 3 and 4.
Sources: AIRE and ISTAT data.
p < .05; **p < .01