Estimates of the OLS and IV regression models on change in TFR between 2009 and 2014
| Variables . | OLS (1) . | IV 1 (2) . | IV 2 (3) . | IV 3 (4) . | OLS CUM (5) . | IV 1 CUM (6) . | OLS (7) . | IV 1 (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emigrated, 2009–2014 | 0.091† | 0.176* | 0.186** | 0.174* | 0.343** | 0.536* | 0.040 | 0.145† |
| (0.048) | (0.069) | (0.062) | (0.070) | (0.126) | (0.232) | (0.032) | (0.086) | |
| Emigrated × North | 0.193* | 0.143 | ||||||
| (0.080) | (0.143) | |||||||
| GDP, 2004 | –0.120 | –0.372 | –0.400 | –0.365 | 0.076 | –0.493 | –0.163 | –0.423 |
| (0.260) | (0.327) | (0.301) | (0.330) | (0.577) | (0.865) | (0.187) | (0.260) | |
| Unemployed, 2004 | –0.536† | –0.577* | –0.581* | –0.576* | –1.329 | –1.421† | –0.538† | –0.581* |
| (0.284) | (0.258) | (0.254) | (0.259) | (0.860) | (0.821) | (0.297) | (0.258) | |
| North | –0.033 | –0.016 | –0.014 | –0.017 | –0.121 | –0.084 | –0.126* | –0.084 |
| (0.034) | (0.038) | (0.038) | (0.038) | (0.124) | (0.134) | (0.049) | (0.085) | |
| Center | –0.012 | –0.006 | –0.005 | –0.006 | 0.026 | 0.039 | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| (0.033) | (0.035) | (0.036) | (0.035) | (0.108) | (0.112) | (0.028) | (0.031) | |
| Islands | 0.023 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.013 | –0.002 | 0.028 | 0.019 |
| (0.023) | (0.020) | (0.021) | (0.020) | (0.070) | (0.065) | (0.024) | (0.020) | |
| Constant | –0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | –0.124 | –0.106 | 0.024 | 0.025 |
| (0.058) | (0.067) | (0.068) | (0.067) | (0.152) | (0.168) | (0.047) | (0.058) | |
| Number of Observations | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| R2 | .146 | .091 | .078 | .094 | .228 | .207 | .227 | .159 |
| Average TFR, 2008 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 |
| Average TFR Change | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.078 | –0.078 | –0.037 | –0.037 |
| Model | OLS | 2SLS | 2SLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS |
| F Excluded Instrument | 33.83 | 13.17 | 31.15 | 33.83 | 21.74 |
| Variables . | OLS (1) . | IV 1 (2) . | IV 2 (3) . | IV 3 (4) . | OLS CUM (5) . | IV 1 CUM (6) . | OLS (7) . | IV 1 (8) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emigrated, 2009–2014 | 0.091† | 0.176* | 0.186** | 0.174* | 0.343** | 0.536* | 0.040 | 0.145† |
| (0.048) | (0.069) | (0.062) | (0.070) | (0.126) | (0.232) | (0.032) | (0.086) | |
| Emigrated × North | 0.193* | 0.143 | ||||||
| (0.080) | (0.143) | |||||||
| GDP, 2004 | –0.120 | –0.372 | –0.400 | –0.365 | 0.076 | –0.493 | –0.163 | –0.423 |
| (0.260) | (0.327) | (0.301) | (0.330) | (0.577) | (0.865) | (0.187) | (0.260) | |
| Unemployed, 2004 | –0.536† | –0.577* | –0.581* | –0.576* | –1.329 | –1.421† | –0.538† | –0.581* |
| (0.284) | (0.258) | (0.254) | (0.259) | (0.860) | (0.821) | (0.297) | (0.258) | |
| North | –0.033 | –0.016 | –0.014 | –0.017 | –0.121 | –0.084 | –0.126* | –0.084 |
| (0.034) | (0.038) | (0.038) | (0.038) | (0.124) | (0.134) | (0.049) | (0.085) | |
| Center | –0.012 | –0.006 | –0.005 | –0.006 | 0.026 | 0.039 | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| (0.033) | (0.035) | (0.036) | (0.035) | (0.108) | (0.112) | (0.028) | (0.031) | |
| Islands | 0.023 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.013 | –0.002 | 0.028 | 0.019 |
| (0.023) | (0.020) | (0.021) | (0.020) | (0.070) | (0.065) | (0.024) | (0.020) | |
| Constant | –0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | –0.124 | –0.106 | 0.024 | 0.025 |
| (0.058) | (0.067) | (0.068) | (0.067) | (0.152) | (0.168) | (0.047) | (0.058) | |
| Number of Observations | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| R2 | .146 | .091 | .078 | .094 | .228 | .207 | .227 | .159 |
| Average TFR, 2008 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 | 1.377 |
| Average TFR Change | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.037 | –0.078 | –0.078 | –0.037 | –0.037 |
| Model | OLS | 2SLS | 2SLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS |
| F Excluded Instrument | 33.83 | 13.17 | 31.15 | 33.83 | 21.74 |
Notes: Robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. Observations are Italian provinces. All specifications control for macro-area fixed effects. In columns 2 and 6, the model is our baseline IV interacting emigrant networks with destination country GDP growth in 2009–2014. In column 3, emigrant networks are used as separate instruments and are not interacted. In column 4, the GDP growth of the baseline instrument is replaced by the 2009–2014 change in the unemployment rate of the destination countries. In columns 5 and 6, the dependent variable is the cumulated TFR change between 2009 and every year from 2010 to 2014: . Columns 7 and 8 replicate models in columns 1 and 2, but they include the interaction of emigration with a dummy variable for northern provinces.
Sources: AIRE and ISTAT data.
†p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01