Ten-year BMI transition matrices in the United States: Transition probabilities (standard errors) across categories of BMI over three periods (adults aged 25–84)
| . | 1980–1990 . | 1990–2000 . | 1998–2008 . | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . |
| Normal | .67 (.01) | .30 (.01) | .03 (.00) | .00 (.00) | .61 (.01) | .34 (.01) | .04 (.00) | .01 (.00) | .63 (.02) | .33 (.01) | .03 (.00) | .01 (.00) |
| Overweight | .12 (.01) | .52 (.01) | .29 (.01) | .08 (.01) | .10 (.01) | .48 (.01) | .32 (.01) | .10 (.01) | .09 (.01) | .51 (.02) | .31 (.02) | .09 (.01) |
| Obese Class I | .02 (.00) | .22 (.02) | .44 (.02) | .31 (.03) | .02 (.00) | .16 (.01) | .41 (.01) | .41 (.02) | .02 (.00) | .21 (.02) | .42 (.02) | .35 (.02) |
| Obese Class II–III | .01 (.00) | .07 (.01) | .28 (.02) | .64 (.03) | .00 (.00) | .04 (.01) | .20 (.03) | .76 (.04) | .00 (.00) | .06 (.01) | .24 (.03) | .70 (.04) |
| . | 1980–1990 . | 1990–2000 . | 1998–2008 . | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . | Normal . | Over . | Obese I . | Obese II–III . |
| Normal | .67 (.01) | .30 (.01) | .03 (.00) | .00 (.00) | .61 (.01) | .34 (.01) | .04 (.00) | .01 (.00) | .63 (.02) | .33 (.01) | .03 (.00) | .01 (.00) |
| Overweight | .12 (.01) | .52 (.01) | .29 (.01) | .08 (.01) | .10 (.01) | .48 (.01) | .32 (.01) | .10 (.01) | .09 (.01) | .51 (.02) | .31 (.02) | .09 (.01) |
| Obese Class I | .02 (.00) | .22 (.02) | .44 (.02) | .31 (.03) | .02 (.00) | .16 (.01) | .41 (.01) | .41 (.02) | .02 (.00) | .21 (.02) | .42 (.02) | .35 (.02) |
| Obese Class II–III | .01 (.00) | .07 (.01) | .28 (.02) | .64 (.03) | .00 (.00) | .04 (.01) | .20 (.03) | .76 (.04) | .00 (.00) | .06 (.01) | .24 (.03) | .70 (.04) |
Sources: Transition probabilities across periods were predicted fixing age at its population average in 2007–2008. Transition probabilities for 1980–1990 were estimated using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III; those for 1990–2000 and 1998–2008 were estimated using data from NHANES continuous waves 1999–2002 and 2007–2008, respectively.