Table 4 Effect of Southern Border Plan...

Table 4

Effect of Southern Border Plan on the intent to remigrate: Alternative control group

	1	2	3	4	5	6
Trip 2014 × Trip Q3–Q4	−0.074***	−0.094***	−0.100***	−0.102***	−0.104***	−0.109***
Trip 2014 × Trip Q3–Q4	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Male	—	0.050^†	0.087***	0.090***	0.087***	0.086***
Male		(0.027)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)
Age	—	−0.001	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000
Age		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Speaks English	—	−0.010	−0.018	−0.023	−0.004	0.004
Speaks English		(0.084)	(0.090)	(0.089)	(0.093)	(0.096)
Education (ref. = primary or less)
Secondary education	—	–0.004	–0.003	−0.003	0.003	0.004
Secondary education		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)
High school	—	−0.028	−0.030^†	−0.029	−0.026	−0.024
High school		(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Tertiary education	—	−0.017	−0.018	−0.014	−0.004	−0.007
Tertiary education		(0.051)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Married	—	−0.024	−0.029	−0.031	−0.032	−0.032
Married		(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)
Head	—	0.008	0.017	0.017	0.014	0.015
Head		(0.021)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)
Household Size	—	0.001	0.003	0.003	0.002	0.002
Household Size		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Has Family/Friends in the United States	—	0.026	0.020	0.022	0.021	0.021
Has Family/Friends in the United States		(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Employed Before Migration	—	–0.090***	–0.069**	–0.071***	–0.072***	–0.073***
Employed Before Migration		(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
Ln(Money Spent)	—	—	0.021	0.024	0.031*	0.031*
Ln(Money Spent)			(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Borrowed Money to Cross	—	—	0.168***	0.165***	0.162***	0.163***
Borrowed Money to Cross			(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Used a Coyote	—	—	0.041^†	0.038^†	0.011	0.011
Used a Coyote			(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)
People Traveling Together	—	—	0.017***	0.017***	0.017***	0.017***
People Traveling Together			(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Traveled With Children	—	—	–0.106**	–0.105**	–0.099**	–0.101**
Traveled With Children			(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.035)
Previous Number of Crossings	—	—	–0.035^†	–0.033	–0.035	–0.035
Previous Number of Crossings			(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Constant	0.631***	0.663***	0.390***	0.382*	0.403**	0.262
Constant	(0.012)	(0.045)	(0.087)	(0.145)	(0.141)	(0.160)
Quarter Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Origin Department Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Apprehension State Fixed Effects	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Origin Department Time Trend	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Apprehension State Time Trend	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
Number of Observations	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099
R²	.086	.093	.128	.131	.145	.148

	1	2	3	4	5	6
Trip 2014 × Trip Q3–Q4	−0.074***	−0.094***	−0.100***	−0.102***	−0.104***	−0.109***
Trip 2014 × Trip Q3–Q4	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Male	—	0.050^†	0.087***	0.090***	0.087***	0.086***
Male		(0.027)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)
Age	—	−0.001	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000	−0.000
Age		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Speaks English	—	−0.010	−0.018	−0.023	−0.004	0.004
Speaks English		(0.084)	(0.090)	(0.089)	(0.093)	(0.096)
Education (ref. = primary or less)
Secondary education	—	–0.004	–0.003	−0.003	0.003	0.004
Secondary education		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)
High school	—	−0.028	−0.030^†	−0.029	−0.026	−0.024
High school		(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
Tertiary education	—	−0.017	−0.018	−0.014	−0.004	−0.007
Tertiary education		(0.051)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Married	—	−0.024	−0.029	−0.031	−0.032	−0.032
Married		(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)
Head	—	0.008	0.017	0.017	0.014	0.015
Head		(0.021)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)
Household Size	—	0.001	0.003	0.003	0.002	0.002
Household Size		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Has Family/Friends in the United States	—	0.026	0.020	0.022	0.021	0.021
Has Family/Friends in the United States		(0.018)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.017)
Employed Before Migration	—	–0.090***	–0.069**	–0.071***	–0.072***	–0.073***
Employed Before Migration		(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
Ln(Money Spent)	—	—	0.021	0.024	0.031*	0.031*
Ln(Money Spent)			(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Borrowed Money to Cross	—	—	0.168***	0.165***	0.162***	0.163***
Borrowed Money to Cross			(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Used a Coyote	—	—	0.041^†	0.038^†	0.011	0.011
Used a Coyote			(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)
People Traveling Together	—	—	0.017***	0.017***	0.017***	0.017***
People Traveling Together			(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
Traveled With Children	—	—	–0.106**	–0.105**	–0.099**	–0.101**
Traveled With Children			(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.035)
Previous Number of Crossings	—	—	–0.035^†	–0.033	–0.035	–0.035
Previous Number of Crossings			(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)
Constant	0.631***	0.663***	0.390***	0.382*	0.403**	0.262
Constant	(0.012)	(0.045)	(0.087)	(0.145)	(0.141)	(0.160)
Quarter Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Origin Department Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Apprehension State Fixed Effects	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Origin Department Time Trend	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Apprehension State Time Trend	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
Number of Observations	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099	10,099
R²	.086	.093	.128	.131	.145	.148

Notes: Results are obtained from OLS regressions. The treatment group is defined as deportees originating from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala who started their trip sometime between January and December 2014. The control group is defined as deportees who started their trip sometime between January and December 2013. Standard errors, clustered at the origin department level, are shown in parentheses.

^†p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001

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