Autoregressive distributed lag regressions for the crude death rate: OLS regression coefficients, with standard errors shown in parentheses
| . | 1730–1799 . | 1816–1870 . | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | |
| Constant | 0.083† (0.043) | 0.015 (0.030) | 0.015 (0.012) |
| Trend | –5.6E–05 (3.4E–05) | 2.0E–06 (2.3E–05) | |
| d – 1 | 0.394* (0.112) | 0.469* (0.081) | 0.353* (0.146) |
| d – 2 | 0.097 (0.112) | 0.249* (0.076) | 0.149 (0.145) |
| w | –0.014* (0.006) | –0.013* (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) |
| w – 1 | –0.016† (0.008) | 0.001 (0.006) | –0.001 (0.004) |
| w – 2 | 0.023* (0.006) | 0.014* (0.004) | 0.000 (0.003) |
| Year Dummy Variables | No | Yes | No |
| R2, Adjusted | .503 | .795 | .102 |
| Durbin-Watson Statistic | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2.02 |
| Implied Instantaneous Elasticity | –0.41 | –0.38 | 0.02 |
| Implied Cumulative Elasticity | –0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| . | 1730–1799 . | 1816–1870 . | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) . | (2) . | (3) . | |
| Constant | 0.083† (0.043) | 0.015 (0.030) | 0.015 (0.012) |
| Trend | –5.6E–05 (3.4E–05) | 2.0E–06 (2.3E–05) | |
| d – 1 | 0.394* (0.112) | 0.469* (0.081) | 0.353* (0.146) |
| d – 2 | 0.097 (0.112) | 0.249* (0.076) | 0.149 (0.145) |
| w | –0.014* (0.006) | –0.013* (0.004) | 0.001 (0.003) |
| w – 1 | –0.016† (0.008) | 0.001 (0.006) | –0.001 (0.004) |
| w – 2 | 0.023* (0.006) | 0.014* (0.004) | 0.000 (0.003) |
| Year Dummy Variables | No | Yes | No |
| R2, Adjusted | .503 | .795 | .102 |
| Durbin-Watson Statistic | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2.02 |
| Implied Instantaneous Elasticity | –0.41 | –0.38 | 0.02 |
| Implied Cumulative Elasticity | –0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
Notes: Year-specific dummy variables in regression (2) refer to 1740, 1757, 1758, 1764, 1766, 1772, and 1795 (selection based on studentized residuals r > 2).
Source: Own calculations based on series shown in Fig. 3.
†p < .10; *p < .05