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Table 6

OLS and IV regressions of log labor force participation rate and hourly wages of 60- to 69-year-olds on log relative cohort sizes for 16- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 49-year-olds, 1984–2016

LFPHourly Wages
OLSIVOLSIV
Both Sexes 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.120* –0.459* 0.024 –0.239 
[0.047] [0.188] [0.039] [0.135] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.077 0.597** –0.010 –0.074 
[0.055] [0.192] [0.058] [0.174] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  10.51  10.51 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  9.72  9.72 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .006  .083 
Men 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.073 –0.480** 0.034 –0.299 
[0.047] [0.163] [0.043] [0.183] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.031 0.464* 0.007 –0.066 
[0.054] [0.187] [0.061] [0.195] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  9.20  9.20 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  14.20  14.20 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .013  .101 
Women 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.104* –0.444 –0.045 –0.242 
[0.049] [0.271] [0.041] [0.149] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.124* 0.770** 0.052 –0.056 
[0.058] [0.252] [0.057] [0.180] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  8.43  8.43 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  4.85  4.85 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .002  .129 
LFPHourly Wages
OLSIVOLSIV
Both Sexes 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.120* –0.459* 0.024 –0.239 
[0.047] [0.188] [0.039] [0.135] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.077 0.597** –0.010 –0.074 
[0.055] [0.192] [0.058] [0.174] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  10.51  10.51 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  9.72  9.72 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .006  .083 
Men 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.073 –0.480** 0.034 –0.299 
[0.047] [0.163] [0.043] [0.183] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.031 0.464* 0.007 –0.066 
[0.054] [0.187] [0.061] [0.195] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  9.20  9.20 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  14.20  14.20 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .013  .101 
Women 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24) –0.104* –0.444 –0.045 –0.242 
[0.049] [0.271] [0.041] [0.149] 
 ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49) 0.124* 0.770** 0.052 –0.056 
[0.058] [0.252] [0.057] [0.180] 
 First-stage F statistic 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 16–24)  8.43  8.43 
   Dependent variable = ln(cohort size aged 60–69 / cohort size aged 25–49)  4.85  4.85 
 Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity (p value)  .002  .129 

Notes: Data source is described in notes to the figures, and specification details are described in notes to Table 1. The table reports estimates of Eq. (2). Regression is weighted by average state population through the sample period. Standard errors are clustered by state. The two IVs used are the total number of births for 60- to 69-year-olds divided by the total number of births for 16- to 24-year-olds by state and year and the total number of births for 60- to 69-year-olds divided by the total number of births for 25- to 49-year-olds by state and year. We exclude certain years and states with missing birth data for the cohorts because only a handful of states started reporting births in 1915. N = 1,326.

p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01

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