Effect of layoffs on fertility by business cycle, controlling for major reforms of the parental leave system
| . | Model FAnticipation . | Model G: LPM With Reform Effects (1986)Treated . | Model H: LPM With Reform Effects (1992)Treated . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year After Layoff . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . |
| −1 | −0.006† | 0.000 | –– | –– | –– | –– |
| (0.003) | (0.003) | |||||
| 1 | –– | –– | −0.003 | 0.005 | −0.006 | 0.000 |
| –– | –– | (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.012) | (0.015) | |
| 2 | –– | –– | −0.025 | 0.006 | −0.028† | 0.002 |
| –– | –– | (0.019) | (0.022) | (0.016) | (0.019) | |
| 3 | –– | –– | −0.047* | 0.000 | −0.036† | 0.011 |
| –– | –– | (0.021) | (0.025) | (0.019) | (0.022) | |
| 4 | –– | –– | −0.041† | 0.017 | −0.028 | 0.024 |
| –– | –– | (0.023) | (0.028) | (0.021) | (0.024) | |
| 5 | –– | –– | −0.043† | 0.003 | −0.033 | 0.011 |
| –– | –– | (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.022) | (0.025) | |
| . | Model FAnticipation . | Model G: LPM With Reform Effects (1986)Treated . | Model H: LPM With Reform Effects (1992)Treated . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year After Layoff . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . | In Downturn . | In Upturn . |
| −1 | −0.006† | 0.000 | –– | –– | –– | –– |
| (0.003) | (0.003) | |||||
| 1 | –– | –– | −0.003 | 0.005 | −0.006 | 0.000 |
| –– | –– | (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.012) | (0.015) | |
| 2 | –– | –– | −0.025 | 0.006 | −0.028† | 0.002 |
| –– | –– | (0.019) | (0.022) | (0.016) | (0.019) | |
| 3 | –– | –– | −0.047* | 0.000 | −0.036† | 0.011 |
| –– | –– | (0.021) | (0.025) | (0.019) | (0.022) | |
| 4 | –– | –– | −0.041† | 0.017 | −0.028 | 0.024 |
| –– | –– | (0.023) | (0.028) | (0.021) | (0.024) | |
| 5 | –– | –– | −0.043† | 0.003 | −0.033 | 0.011 |
| –– | –– | (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.022) | (0.025) | |
Notes: Dependent variable is cumulated first-birth probability. Model F: Treatment: Working at a firm with a mass layoff within the following year, and the outcome is having a child in the year before the mass layoff; the sample consists of the main analysis sample and those women who became pregnant in the year before the mass layoff. Data contain 15,237 spells of women at a firm with a mass layoff in the following year, and 108,561 spells of women at a firm without a mass layoff in the following year. Model G: Accounting for changes in the parental leave system in 1986. In this model, we allow for a shift in the treatment effect after the reform, independent of the status of the business cycle. Model H: Similar to Model G, but accounting for changes in the parental leave system in 1992. See Table 3 for number of observations.
†p ≤ .10; *p ≤ .05