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probability

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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2019) 128 (3): 371-375.
Published: 01 July 2019
...Igor Douven Leitgeb Hannes , The Stability of Belief: How Rational Belief Coheres with Probability . Oxford: Oxford University Press , 2017 . xiv + 365 pp . © 2019 by Cornell University 2019 There is an ongoing debate about how to connect categorical beliefs to graded beliefs...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2000) 109 (2): 277-281.
Published: 01 April 2000
...Joseph Y. Halpern PROBABILITY AND CONDITIONALS: BELIEF REVISION AND RATIONAL DECISION. Edited by Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms. Cambridge University Press, 1994. Pp. vii, 207 Cornell University 2000 Adams, E. 1966 . “Probability and the Logic of Conditionals.” In Aspects of...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2004) 113 (3): 438-441.
Published: 01 July 2004
...James M. Joyce David Howie, Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press. 2002. Pp. xi, 262. Cornell University 2004 BOOK REVIEWS The Philosophical Review, Vol...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 539-571.
Published: 01 October 2012
...Richard Bradley Adams’s Thesis, the claim that the probabilities of indicative conditionals equal the conditional probabilities of their consequents given their antecedents, has proven impossible to accommodate within orthodox possible-world semantics. This essay proposes a modification to the...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 241-275.
Published: 01 April 2012
...Richard Pettigrew In “A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism,” James M. Joyce attempts to “depragmatize” de Finetti’s prevision argument for the claim that our credences ought to satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus. This article adapts Joyce’s argument to give nonpragmatic...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (1): 119-152.
Published: 01 January 2015
... level can coexist with its absence at a lower level. Unlike previous arguments for the level-specificity of chance, the present argument shows, in a precise sense, that higher-level chance does not collapse into epistemic probability, despite higher-level properties supervening on lower-level ones. The...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2014) 123 (1): 1-41.
Published: 01 January 2014
...Kenny Easwaran Many philosophers have become worried about the use of standard real numbers for the probability function that represents an agent's credences. They point out that real numbers can't capture the distinction between certain extremely unlikely events and genuinely impossible ones—they...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2016) 125 (3): 307-339.
Published: 01 July 2016
...Jeffrey Sanford Russell; John Hawthorne Famous results by David Lewis show that plausible-sounding constraints on the probabilities of conditionals or evaluative claims lead to unacceptable results, by standard probabilistic reasoning. Existing presentations of these results rely on stronger...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2014) 123 (2): 131-171.
Published: 01 April 2014
...Hannes Leitgeb This essay develops a joint theory of rational (all-or-nothing) belief and degrees of belief. The theory is based on three assumptions: the logical closure of rational belief; the axioms of probability for rational degrees of belief; and the so-called Lockean thesis, in which the...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2018) 127 (3): 371-398.
Published: 01 July 2018
... make for the probability of the effect. I conclude by discussing my results and outlining future research avenues. Finally, one can investigate measures of causal contribution (e.g., Hall 2004 ; Kaiserman 2016 ; Beckers and Vennekens 2018 ). Suppose we ask what is the stronger cause of a car...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2009) 118 (1): 59-85.
Published: 01 January 2009
... will conditionalize on veridical evidence in the future. Qualified Reflection follows from the probability calculus together with a few idealizing assumptions. The essay then formulates a “Distorted Reflection” principle that approximates Reflection even in cases where the agent is not quite certain...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2011) 120 (2): 207-245.
Published: 01 April 2011
...Barry Lam If you are currently a reliable epistemic agent in some domain, you would not want to adopt a rule of belief-revision in that domain that rendered you less reliable. However, you probably would want to adopt a rule that rendered you more reliable in that domain. In the epistemology of...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2013) 122 (1): 1-43.
Published: 01 January 2013
... . DeRose Keith . 1991 . “ Epistemic Possibilities .” Philosophical Review 100 ( 4 ): 581 – 605 . ———. 2009 . The Case for Contextualism . Oxford : Oxford University Press . Diaconis Persi Zabell Sandy L. . 1982 . “ Updating Subjective Probability .” Journal of the American...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2003) 112 (1): 27-56.
Published: 01 January 2003
.... de Finetti, Bruno. 1972 . Theory of Probability . New York: Wiley. Diderot, Denis. 1875-77 . Pensées Philosophiques, 59, Oeuvres . Edited by J. Assézat, vol. 1 . Duff, Antony. 1986 . Pascal's Wager and Infinite Utilities. Analysis 46 : 107 -9. Edwards, W., H. Lindman, and L. J...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2001) 110 (2): 296-300.
Published: 01 April 2001
... foundational issues, or take sides on foundational issues without discussing, or even acknowledging, them.) The book presupposes some mathematical sophistication (for example, it assumes familiarity with probability theory), and it contains more philosophical and mathematical argumentation per page...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 149-177.
Published: 01 April 2012
... : 427 – 39 . Dorr C. 2002. “ Sleeping Beauty: In Defence of Elga .” Analysis 62 : 292 – 95 . Draper Kai Pust Joel . 2008 . “ Diachronic Dutch Books and Sleeping Beauty .” Synthese 164 : 281 – 87 . Eckhardt W. “ Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2014) 123 (2): 241-244.
Published: 01 April 2014
... worlds where S believes that p, p). Rather than construing these well-known conditions in a possible worlds framework, Zalabardo follows Sherrilyn Roush's (2005) lead and explicates them in terms of conditional probabilities. On Roush's presentation, sensitivity is satisfied for S's belief that p when...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2006) 115 (4): 449-485.
Published: 01 October 2006
... Ernest Sosa. 2003 . Epistemic Justification . Malden, MA: Blackwell. Brandom, Robert. 1994 . Making It Explicit . Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Carnap, Rudolph. 1971 . “A Basic System of Inductive Logic.” In Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability , ed. Rudolph Carnap and...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2002) 111 (1): 1-23.
Published: 01 January 2002
...John L. Pollock Cornell University 2002 Anscombe, G. E. M. 1958 . Intention . Ithaca: Cornell University Press. Anscombe, F. J., and R. J. Aumann. 1963 . “A Definition of Subjective Probability.” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34 : 199 -205. Danto, Arthur. 1963 . “What...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2018) 127 (1): 73-114.
Published: 01 January 2018
... (1) is false, the first drug is equally effective as the conventional treatment. By assumption, in all such worlds, the researcher will (falsely) reject the null hypothesis with probability at most one percent. So her belief is sensitive. Thus, according to Nozick's theory of knowledge, the medical...