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objective chance
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (1): 119–152.
Published: 01 January 2015
...Christian List; Marcus Pivato This article offers a new argument for the claim that there can be nondegenerate objective chance in a deterministic world. Using a formal model of the relationship between different levels of description of a system, the article shows how objective chance at a higher...
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 483–538.
Published: 01 October 2012
...Huw Price In “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance,” David Lewis says that he is “led to wonder whether anyone but a subjectivist is in a position to understand objective chance.” The present essay aims to motivate this same Lewisean attitude, and a similar degree of modest subjectivism...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 241–275.
Published: 01 April 2012
... set of credences that violates the probability axioms, there is a set that satisfies those axioms that is closer to every possible set of truth values. This article replaces truth values with objective chances in this argument; it shows that for any set of credences that violates the probability...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2023) 132 (1): 43–87.
Published: 01 January 2023
...Benjamin A. Levinstein Chance both guides our credences and is an objective feature of the world. How and why we should conform our credences to chance depends on the underlying metaphysical account of what chance is. I use considerations of accuracy (how close your credences come to truth-values...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2016) 125 (4): 509–587.
Published: 01 October 2016
... ′: Exp c ′ ( B ) —by one particularly attractive scoring rule, namely, the Brier score (section 5.2). And measure variance in objective expected posterior accuracy across chance hypotheses, var ( Exp c ′ ( B ) ) , in the usual way (by the difference in its maximum...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 573–609.
Published: 01 October 2012
... Similarity Objection Revisited .” Synthese 150 : 57 – 67 . Haecceitism, Chance, and
Counterfactuals
Boris Kment
Princeton University
Imagine a symmetrical world w where nothing exists except...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2024) 133 (1): 96–101.
Published: 01 January 2024
...Carl Hoefer [email protected] Myrvold Wayne C. , Beyond Chance and Credence . Oxford : Oxford University Press , 2021 . xvi + 286 pp. © 2024 by Cornell University 2024 In the postscripts to “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance,” David Lewis (1986: 118) wrote...
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2010) 119 (4): 411–447.
Published: 01 October 2010
... process. Let S be a
partition of alternative hypotheses concerning the outcome of this pro-
cess. Beauty knows the objective chance of each hypothesis in S,andshe
also knows how many times she will awaken conditional on each of these
4. See Lewis 2001 for an early defense of this position...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (2): 169–206.
Published: 01 April 2015
... that people keep judging objective features like intelligence and so on in massively distorted ways without in any way being bothered by evidence to the contrary. © 2015 by Cornell University 2015 fairness justice allocation conflicts chances lotteries Suppose two people, call them...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2003) 112 (2): 263–266.
Published: 01 April 2003
... would be enough to enable the world to
contain such things as minds, causation, people, and languages; and in princi-
ple, Lewis claims, his Humean world has everything needed for truths of coun-
terfactual conditionals and statements of objective chances. Lewis leaves open
the question of whether...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2022) 131 (3): 241–294.
Published: 01 July 2022
... , and Rabinowitz Dani , 136 – 68 . Oxford : Oxford University Press . Hawthorne John , and Lasonen-Aarnio Maria . 2009 . “ Knowledge and Objective Chance .” In Williamson on Knowledge , edited by Greenough Patrick and Pritchard Duncan , 92 – 108 . Oxford : Oxford University...
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2020) 129 (3): 484–489.
Published: 01 July 2020
... of Epistemic Decision Theory .” Mind 128 , no. 509 : 69 – 107 . Lewis, David. 1980. “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance.” In Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, vol. 2, edited by Richard C. Jeffrey. Berkeley: University of California Press . Moss, Sarah . 2011 . “ Scoring Rules...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2014) 123 (1): 116–118.
Published: 01 January 2014
... for the necessity of laws), the relationship between laws and objective chances, and the nature of instantaneous velocity and acceleration. The latter, argues Lange, are best understood in terms of certain subjunctive facts. This, in turn, is one advantage of what might otherwise seem to be a disadvantage, the fact...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2013) 122 (1): 1–43.
Published: 01 January 2013
... . “ Possibility .” Philosophical Review 76 ( 2 ): 143 – 68 . Hájek Alan . 2003 . “ What Conditional Probability Could Not Be .” Synthese 137 ( 3 ): 273 – 323 . Hall Ned . 1994 . “ Correcting the Guide to Objective Chance .” Mind 103 ( 412 ): 505 – 18 . Hall Ned Hájek...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (1): 1–54.
Published: 01 January 2012
... . Lemmon E. J. 1962 .“ Moral Dilemmas .” Philosophical Review 71 , no. 2 : 139 - 58 . Lewis D. 1974 .“ Radical Interpretation .” Synthese 23 : 331 - 44 . ———. 1986 .“ A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance .” In Philosophical Papers , vol. 2 , 83 - 132 . New York...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 149–177.
Published: 01 April 2012
... where each member of the population
has an equal chance of being selected for the sample. This is familiar from
statistics (Stuart 1962). For simplicity, we will assume that random pro-
cedures always select at least one object.
Of the many nonrandom procedures, we will need only the fol...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2008) 117 (4): 555–606.
Published: 01 October 2008
... . “Subjective Probability and Acceptance.” Philosophical Studies 77 : 147 -79. Lewis, D. 1979 . “Attitudes De Dicto and De Se.” Philosophical Review 88 : 513 -43. ———. 1980 . “A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance.” In Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability , vol. 2 , ed. R. C...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2019) 128 (4): 523–527.
Published: 01 October 2019
... that her flight will be on time, since this ignores the agent's uncertainty. Similarly, it can't be the objective chance if Sara's uncertainty is merely due to lack of information rather than genuine chanciness. Alternatively, the reason might be the fact that it is somewhat likely on Sara's evidence...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2003) 112 (1): 27–56.
Published: 01 January 2003
... & Littlefield. Jordan, Jeff. 1998 . Pascal's Wager Revisited. Religious Studies 34 : 419 -31. Kemeny, J. 1955 . Fair Bets and Inductive Probabilities. Journal of Symbolic Logic 20 : 263 -73. Lewis, David. 1980 . A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance. In Studies in Inductive Logic...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2023) 132 (1): 89–145.
Published: 01 January 2023
..., that “surely, if you could ever learn anything non-trivial about objective chances, you could learn that a certain double-headed coin is not fair by flipping it repeatedly, seeing it land heads each time, and eventually inferring that it is not fair.” So consider the following: Heading for Heads A bag...
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