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chance
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 241–275.
Published: 01 April 2012
... set of credences that violates the probability axioms, there is a set that satisfies those axioms that is closer to every possible set of truth values. This article replaces truth values with objective chances in this argument; it shows that for any set of credences that violates the probability...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 483–538.
Published: 01 October 2012
...Huw Price In “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance,” David Lewis says that he is “led to wonder whether anyone but a subjectivist is in a position to understand objective chance.” The present essay aims to motivate this same Lewisean attitude, and a similar degree of modest subjectivism...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 573–609.
Published: 01 October 2012
... physical chance. (ii) Counterfactual conditionals can be defined by appeal to a relation of closeness between possible worlds. The essay tries to show that absurd consequences ensue if either of these assumptions is combined with antihaecceitism. Then it considers a natural response by the antihaecceitist...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (2): 169–206.
Published: 01 April 2015
.... These intuitions in our ex post assessment confirm that chances that one has received are not substantive benefits. It is not that such chances are goods in their own right that somehow lose all their value by the time the actual saving begins. Their only relevance is as weights in calculating expected value...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (1): 119–152.
Published: 01 January 2015
...Christian List; Marcus Pivato This article offers a new argument for the claim that there can be nondegenerate objective chance in a deterministic world. Using a formal model of the relationship between different levels of description of a system, the article shows how objective chance at a higher...
FIGURES
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2002) 111 (1): 130–132.
Published: 01 January 2002
...Edward Stein FROM CHANCE TO CHOICE: GENETICS AND JUSTICE. By Allen Buchanan, Dan W. Brock, Norman Daniels, and Daniel Wikler. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. Pp. xiv, 398 Cornell University 2002 BOOK REVIEWS
The Philosophical Review...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2016) 125 (4): 509–587.
Published: 01 October 2016
... important about what the pursuit of probabilistic knowledge demands from us. It does not demand that we give hypotheses equal treatment , by affording them equal credence. Rather, it demands that we give them equal consideration , by affording them an equal chance of being discovered. © 2016 by Cornell...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2016) 125 (3): 307–339.
Published: 01 July 2016
... to Lewis's results is to claim that conditional claims, or claims about subjective value, lack truth conditions. For this strategy to have a chance of success, it needs to give up basic structural principles about how epistemic states can be updated—in a way that is strikingly parallel to the commitments...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 539–571.
Published: 01 October 2012
..., Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time , ed. Harper William L. Stalnaker Robert Pearce Glenn , 211 – 47 . Dordrecht : D. Reidel . Hájek Alan . 1989 . “ Probabilities of Conditionals—Revisited .” Journal of Philosophical Logic 18 : 423 – 28 . Jackson Frank . 1979...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2018) 127 (1): 73–114.
Published: 01 January 2018
... would conjecture that the rate is between 93% and 95%, regardless of her data, then there is zero chance that her estimate is wrong in the actual world. However, her estimate is wrong with probability one in every world in which the efficacy is greater than 95%. Thus, there is no single probability...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2016) 125 (4): 451–472.
Published: 01 October 2016
... that pushing it will affect Alexia and nobody else. If you push it, then there's a 1/6 chance, from both your and her point of view, of your killing her and a 5/6 chance of your saving her life. Those odds sound good to you and her. Why not push? A reply: “Because then you run a risk of killing her...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2014) 123 (4): 485–531.
Published: 01 October 2014
... accounts of scientific explanation largely agree on the phenomena that they are trying to save. Consider this problem: 11 A number p between 0 and 1 is generated randomly so that there is an equal chance of the generated number's falling within any two intervals of the same size inside [0,1...
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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2015) 124 (4): 571–575.
Published: 01 October 2015
... no distinction at all. The principal differences Weiss sees are as follows: (1) One kind of philosopher escapes corruption and becomes ruler by chance (32), whereas the other is “designed.” (2) One has a philosophical nature, whereas the other is nonphilosophic by nature (40, 50, 67). (3) One has no love...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (4): 643–644.
Published: 01 October 2012
...., Freedom and the Fixity of the Past 179
Kment, Boris, Haecceitism, Chance, and Counterfactuals 573
Kotzen, Matthew, Dragging and Confirming 55
Mahtani, Anna, Diachronic Dutch Book Arguments 443
Pettigrew, Richard, Accuracy, Chance, and the Principal Principle 241
Price, Huw, Causation, Chance...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2012) 121 (2): 149–177.
Published: 01 April 2012
..., and also Kotzen (forthcoming a).
150
Four Problems about Self-Locating Belief
A random procedure is one where each member of the population
has an equal chance of being selected for the sample. This is familiar from
statistics (Stuart 1962...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2010) 119 (4): 411–447.
Published: 01 October 2010
... be a
partition of alternative hypotheses concerning the outcome of this pro-
cess. Beauty knows the objective chance of each hypothesis in S,andshe
also knows how many times she will awaken conditional on each of these
4. See Lewis 2001 for an early defense of this position...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2018) 127 (3): 279–322.
Published: 01 July 2018
... is that our acquaintance with pain removes the mystery. 30. Of course, one might now leverage the argument into an objection to the metaphysical posit itself. Compare Lewis's argument against anti-Humean conceptions of chance. Strictly speaking, all he argued was that the unHumean whatnot does...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2022) 131 (3): 241–294.
Published: 01 July 2022
... chance of containing life at all. ( White 2000 : 274n6) But this still does not settle the issue. Consider a simple toy model. There is either one universe stamped with the label Universe One , or two universes stamped with the labels Universe One and Universe Two , respectively. (The labels...
FIGURES
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2000) 109 (3): 438–441.
Published: 01 July 2000
....
The Philosophical Reuiew, Vol. 109, No. 3 uuly 2000)
DESCARTES AND AUGUSTINE. By STEPHENMENN. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 1998. Pp. xvi, 415.
Chances are that you have read Descartes’s Meditations and Augustine’s
Confessions and De Libero Arbitm’o. Chances are that you have...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (2000) 109 (4): 632–635.
Published: 01 October 2000
... doesn’t impugn my
rationality, because
it is perfectly consistent for me to believe both that I will not move the log,
and that there is a slight chance I will move it. Why not, then, adopt the
intention of moving the log myself, since I can pursue this objective at minimal...
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