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chance

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Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 April 2012) 121 (2): 241–275.
Published: 01 April 2012
... set of credences that violates the probability axioms, there is a set that satisfies those axioms that is closer to every possible set of truth values. This article replaces truth values with objective chances in this argument; it shows that for any set of credences that violates the probability...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2012) 121 (4): 483–538.
Published: 01 October 2012
...Huw Price In “A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance,” David Lewis says that he is “led to wonder whether anyone but a subjectivist is in a position to understand objective chance.” The present essay aims to motivate this same Lewisean attitude, and a similar degree of modest subjectivism, with...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2012) 121 (4): 573–609.
Published: 01 October 2012
... physical chance. (ii) Counterfactual conditionals can be defined by appeal to a relation of closeness between possible worlds. The essay tries to show that absurd consequences ensue if either of these assumptions is combined with antihaecceitism. Then it considers a natural response by the antihaecceitist...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 April 2015) 124 (2): 169–206.
Published: 01 April 2015
.... © 2015 by Cornell University 2015 fairness justice allocation conflicts chances lotteries Suppose two people, call them A and B, need to be rescued from deadly danger. Nobody else is around to help but you. You can save either A or B, but you cannot save both. (Think of two castaways on...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 January 2015) 124 (1): 119–152.
Published: 01 January 2015
...Christian List; Marcus Pivato This article offers a new argument for the claim that there can be nondegenerate objective chance in a deterministic world. Using a formal model of the relationship between different levels of description of a system, the article shows how objective chance at a higher...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 January 2002) 111 (1): 130–132.
Published: 01 January 2002
...Edward Stein FROM CHANCE TO CHOICE: GENETICS AND JUSTICE. By Allen Buchanan, Dan W. Brock, Norman Daniels, and Daniel Wikler. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. Pp. xiv, 398 Cornell University 2002 BOOK REVIEWS The Philosophical Review...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2016) 125 (4): 509–587.
Published: 01 October 2016
... important about what the pursuit of probabilistic knowledge demands from us. It does not demand that we give hypotheses equal treatment , by affording them equal credence. Rather, it demands that we give them equal consideration , by affording them an equal chance of being discovered. probabilistic...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 July 2016) 125 (3): 307–339.
Published: 01 July 2016
... to Lewis's results is to claim that conditional claims, or claims about subjective value, lack truth conditions. For this strategy to have a chance of success, it needs to give up basic structural principles about how epistemic states can be updated—in a way that is strikingly parallel to the...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2012) 121 (4): 643–644.
Published: 01 October 2012
...., Freedom and the Fixity of the Past 179 Kment, Boris, Haecceitism, Chance, and Counterfactuals 573 Kotzen, Matthew, Dragging and Confirming 55 Mahtani, Anna, Diachronic Dutch Book Arguments 443 Pettigrew, Richard, Accuracy, Chance, and the Principal Principle 241 Price, Huw, Causation, Chance, and...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2015) 124 (4): 571–575.
Published: 01 October 2015
... distinct and irreconcilable portrayals of the philosopher” (1), where most readers will have seen no distinction at all. The principal differences Weiss sees are as follows: (1) One kind of philosopher escapes corruption and becomes ruler by chance (32), whereas the other is “designed.” (2) One has a...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2012) 121 (4): 539–571.
Published: 01 October 2012
... Conditionals .” In Ifs: Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time , ed. Harper William L. Stalnaker Robert Pearce Glenn , 211 – 47 . Dordrecht : D. Reidel . Hájek Alan . 1989 . “ Probabilities of Conditionals—Revisited .” Journal of Philosophical Logic 18 : 423 – 28...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 January 2018) 127 (1): 73–114.
Published: 01 January 2018
... >0 be some small probability, and say the researcher's estimator has asymptotic confidence 1 −  a if, as her sample becomes large, the minimum (formally infimum) chance that her estimate contains the true efficacy becomes at least 1 −  a , that is, if lim n → ∞   inf   θ...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2016) 125 (4): 451–472.
Published: 01 October 2016
... you to do that! Each patient, insofar as he or she is reasonably tolerant of risk, would take a 25/26 chance of cured Tolerabalitus and a 1/26 chance of unrelieved Maleficitus over a 25/26 chance of uncured Tolerabalitus and a 1/26 chance of (slightly) relieved Maleficitus. And for you, the doctor...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2014) 123 (4): 485–531.
Published: 01 October 2014
... be my focus. Consider this problem: 11 A number p between 0 and 1 is generated randomly so that there is an equal chance of the generated number's falling within any two intervals of the same size inside [0,1]. Next a biased coin is built so that p is its chance of landing heads. The...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 July 2000) 109 (3): 438–441.
Published: 01 July 2000
.... The Philosophical Reuiew, Vol. 109, No. 3 uuly 2000) DESCARTES AND AUGUSTINE. By STEPHENMENN. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Pp. xvi, 415. Chances are that you have read Descartes’s Meditations and Augustine’s Confessions and De Libero Arbitm’o. Chances are that you...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2000) 109 (4): 632–635.
Published: 01 October 2000
... inconsistency of this intention with my belief that I won’t be able to move it really doesn’t impugn my rationality, because it is perfectly consistent for me to believe both that I will not move the log, and that there is a slight chance I will move it. Why not, then, adopt the...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 April 2003) 112 (2): 263–266.
Published: 01 April 2003
... reductionist approach to our everyday theoretical commitments and a goal of explaining the connections between the mental and the physical, laws and regularities, causes and effects, and chances and their outcomes, all without “necessary connections between dis- tinct existences.” It is a program that many...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 April 2012) 121 (2): 149–177.
Published: 01 April 2012
... Four Problems about Self-Locating Belief A random procedure is one where each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample. This is familiar from statistics (Stuart 1962). For simplicity, we will assume that random pro- cedures always select at least one...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 October 2010) 119 (4): 411–447.
Published: 01 October 2010
... awakenings she will undergo is determined by the outcome of a random process. Let S be a partition of alternative hypotheses concerning the outcome of this pro- cess. Beauty knows the objective chance of each hypothesis in S,andshe also knows how many times she will awaken conditional on each of these...
Journal Article
The Philosophical Review (1 July 2018) 127 (3): 279–322.
Published: 01 July 2018
... conceptions of objective chance, because my objection to realism is exactly analogous. Ironic, then, that the problem with realism can be found in the writings of someone I take to be an arch realist! But ironies aside, let us review Lewis's argument so as to use it as a guide. Lewis noted that chance is...