When one takes stock of Turkey's capacities and limitations not in terms of geopolitics, Islamism, or the Kurdish question but from a sociological and political perspective focused on internal challenges and prospects, perhaps the most critical concern turns out to be the civil—military imbalance. There is a need for a better understanding of the possibilities and challenges for establishing new game rules and a more democratic redefinition of civil—military equation in Turkey, where a politically “autonomous” and “religiously secular” military bloc is pitted against a popularly elected “Islam-friendly” government in the context of an electoral democracy dominated by suspicion, conflict, and open confrontation between the sides. This essay examines the critical impact of the victory of the “yes” votes in the historic referendum of 12 September 2010 and the Ergenekon incident as catalysts for change and reform in Turkey's civil—military balance.

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