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subjective probability

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2016) 48 (suppl_1): 239–269.
Published: 01 December 2016
... measurement expected utility theory subjective probability References Alchian A. 1953 . “The Meaning of Utility Measurement.” American Economic Review 43 : 26 – 50 . Allais M. 1953 . “Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2010) 42 (1): 75–110.
Published: 01 March 2010
...Marcel Boumans Trygve Haavelmo's methodological manifesto “The Probability Approach in Econometrics” not only laid down the paradigm for the research pursued at the Cowles Commission, but also sets out a strategy for measurement outside the laboratory. His conceptualization of “passive observation...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (4): 683–707.
Published: 01 August 2020
...Mario Pomini Bruno de Finetti (1906–1985) is well known as the founder of the subjective theory of probability. Less known is his contribution to economic theory. The article presents the contributions of de Finetti in the field of welfare economics. He advanced a new mathematical tool: the theory...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 33–38.
Published: 01 December 1995
... :528-56. Gilboa , I. 1987 . Expected Utility with Purely Subjective Non-Additive Probabilities. Journal of Mathematical Economics 16 : 65 -88. Hicks , J. 1979 . Causality in Economics . Oxford: Basil Blackwell. Keynes , J. M. [ 1921 ] 1973. A Treatise on Probability.Vol. 8...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1992) 24 (Supplement): 165–175.
Published: 01 December 1992
... examined what he called “Bayesian Decision Rules” as a means of finding undominated (Paretian) decision rules for some common statistical decision problems. In desperation, I resorted, in the 1951 report, to act as a subjectively oriented decision analyst: to assign a subjective probability...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 7–32.
Published: 01 December 1995
.... Chicago: Chicago University Press. Cheeseman , Peter 1988 . Inquiry into Computer Understanding. Computational Intelligence 4 : 58 -66. Earman , John 1992 . Bayes or Bust? Cambridge: MIT Press. Good , I. J. 1962 . Subjective Probability as a Measure of Non-Measurable Set...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2004) 36 (4): 639–666.
Published: 01 November 2004
... decision-theoretic Bayesian viewpoint. Central to this literature is the assumption that players as- sign subjective probabilities to all uncertainty, including the actions and beliefs of other players. Games are then analyzed in terms of the play- ers’ rationality and of their epistemic states, namely...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (Suppl_1): 161–181.
Published: 01 December 2009
... growth (although this became a clear research area only in the postwar period), taxation, subjective probability and/or expected util- ity, and other (which includes things like Ramsey’s obituary written by Keynes, Arthur C. Pigou’s acknowledgment of Ramsey’s help in some of his papers, and any...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2016) 48 (suppl_1): 270–294.
Published: 01 December 2016
... on the Measurement of Utility and Subjective Probability.” Technical Report No. 1 , August 15 , 1955 . Stanford University . ———. 1957 . Decision Making: An Experimental Approach . Stanford, Calif. : Stanford University Press . Edwards W. 1967 . “Review: Decision and Choice: Contributions...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1980) 12 (1): 65–82.
Published: 01 March 1980
... statistics supply data for the forming of sub- jective estimates of chance, they do not, themselves, constitute chances. Fisher’s approach here is useful in calling attention to the inher- ently subjective nature of probability-based specifications of uncer- tainty. In the modem theory...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1984) 16 (4): 644–646.
Published: 01 November 1984
... to the problem of belief most directly when they deal with subjective probabilities. Here, Hammond notes that there may be a considerable divergence between ex post and ex ante probabilities. Which do we use in evaluation? Real-world belief is very complicated even in equilibrium states. One can...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 359–401.
Published: 01 September 2007
.... Chipman, J. S. 1960 . Stochastic Choice and Subjective Probability. In vol. 1 of Decisions, Values, and Groups , edited by Dorothy Willner, 70 -95. New York: Pergamon Press. Chipman, J. S., L. Hurwicz, M. K. Richter, and H. F. Sonnenschein, eds. 1971 . Preference, Utility, and Demand . New York...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1972) 4 (2): 406–425.
Published: 01 June 1972
..., and utility aspects of a proposition see Vincent J. Tarascio, Pareto’s Methodological Approach to Economics, p. 95. 32. Schumpeter, p. 163. 33. In his sociology, Pareto pointed out that in cases of uncertainty in- dividuals resort to subjective probabilities in choice situations. Even though...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2003) 35 (2): 241–268.
Published: 01 June 2003
... the expected utility at time t Ci conditional on information at time t,and¼tCi.stCi/ denotes the probability of state of nature stCi at time t C i, with stCi 2 [1;StCi]. The maximization problem is subject to an intertemporal budget con- straint. In addition, there is an updating rule in subjective...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1975) 7 (4): 530–548.
Published: 01 November 1975
... of twenty-three to t~enty-nineThis work attempted to carry out, for the theory of probability, the program initiated by Russell and Whitehead for mathematics, namely, to pro- vide a logical foundation for the subject. At that time the only explicit theory which delineated the meaning...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (S1): 143–167.
Published: 01 December 2020
... decision problem agents are solv- ing. John Muth (1961) proposed to resolve this problem by identifying agents subjective probabilities with observed frequencies of the events to be forecast, or with true probabilities, calling the assumed coinci- dence of subjective and true probabilities rational...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1983) 15 (1): 92–105.
Published: 01 March 1983
... subjective probabilities is not sufficient to make that occurrence new information. Agents may have subjective probabili- ties of subjective probabilities and may anticipate that the latter could change. Life may be viewed simply as an information service (Hirshleifer & Riley, 1394-97). I 2...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1992) 24 (Supplement): 283–303.
Published: 01 December 1992
... Stouffer, Samuel A., 193-94 convergence among, 18 1 Straffin, Phillip, 213 reception of game theory by, 7, 10, Strategic equivalence, 54 11. See also specijic disciplines Strategy, games of, 15, 21, 23,45 The Theory of Games and Economic Subjective probability, 172...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (4): 649–681.
Published: 01 November 2011
... Economy 98.6 : 1325 – 48 . ———. 1991 . Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias . Journal of Economic Perspectives 5.1 : 193 – 206 . Kahneman D. Tversky A. . 1972 . Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness . Cognitive Psychology 3...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1975) 7 (1): 3–18.
Published: 01 March 1975
... of timing, the draft of a note by William Salant, which he wrote in 1964 when his thoughts momentarily returned to the subject (probably after having forgotten these earlier comments) but which he never published, bears on this issue and may be of some interest. This note, which...