... measurement expected utility theory subjective probability References Alchian A. 1953 . “The Meaning of Utility Measurement.” American Economic Review 43 : 26 – 50 . Allais M. 1953 . “Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes...

...Marcel Boumans Trygve Haavelmo's methodological manifesto “The Probability Approach in Econometrics” not only laid down the paradigm for the research pursued at the Cowles Commission, but also sets out a strategy for measurement outside the laboratory. His conceptualization of “passive observation...

...Mario Pomini Bruno de Finetti (1906–1985) is well known as the founder of the subjective theory of probability. Less known is his contribution to economic theory. The article presents the contributions of de Finetti in the field of welfare economics. He advanced a new mathematical tool: the theory...

... :528-56. Gilboa , I. 1987 . Expected Utility with Purely Subjective Non-Additive Probabilities. Journal of Mathematical Economics 16 : 65 -88. Hicks , J. 1979 . Causality in Economics . Oxford: Basil Blackwell. Keynes , J. M. [ 1921 ] 1973. A Treatise on Probability.Vol. 8...

... examined what he called “Bayesian Decision Rules” as a means of finding undominated (Paretian) decision rules for some common statistical decision problems. In desperation, I resorted, in the 1951 report, to act as a subjectively oriented decision analyst: to assign a subjective probability...

.... Chicago: Chicago University Press. Cheeseman , Peter 1988 . Inquiry into Computer Understanding. Computational Intelligence 4 : 58 -66. Earman , John 1992 . Bayes or Bust? Cambridge: MIT Press. Good , I. J. 1962 . Subjective Probability as a Measure of Non-Measurable Set...

... decision-theoretic Bayesian viewpoint. Central to this literature is the assumption that players as- sign subjective probabilities to all uncertainty, including the actions and beliefs of other players. Games are then analyzed in terms of the play- ers’ rationality and of their epistemic states, namely...

... growth (although this became a clear research area only in the postwar period), taxation, subjective probability and/or expected util- ity, and other (which includes things like Ramsey’s obituary written by Keynes, Arthur C. Pigou’s acknowledgment of Ramsey’s help in some of his papers, and any...

... on the Measurement of Utility and Subjective Probability.” Technical Report No. 1 , August 15 , 1955 . Stanford University . ———. 1957 . Decision Making: An Experimental Approach . Stanford, Calif. : Stanford University Press . Edwards W. 1967 . “Review: Decision and Choice: Contributions...

... statistics supply data for the forming of sub- jective estimates of chance, they do not, themselves, constitute chances. Fisher’s approach here is useful in calling attention to the inher- ently subjective nature of probability-based specifications of uncer- tainty. In the modem theory...

... to the problem of belief most directly when they deal with subjective probabilities. Here, Hammond notes that there may be a considerable divergence between ex post and ex ante probabilities. Which do we use in evaluation? Real-world belief is very complicated even in equilibrium states. One can...

.... Chipman, J. S. 1960 . Stochastic Choice and Subjective Probability. In vol. 1 of Decisions, Values, and Groups , edited by Dorothy Willner, 70 -95. New York: Pergamon Press. Chipman, J. S., L. Hurwicz, M. K. Richter, and H. F. Sonnenschein, eds. 1971 . Preference, Utility, and Demand . New York...

..., and utility aspects of a proposition see Vincent J. Tarascio, Pareto’s Methodological Approach to Economics, p. 95. 32. Schumpeter, p. 163. 33. In his sociology, Pareto pointed out that in cases of uncertainty in- dividuals resort to subjective probabilities in choice situations. Even though...

... the expected utility at time t Ci conditional on information at time t,and¼tCi.stCi/ denotes the probability of state of nature stCi at time t C i, with stCi 2 [1;StCi]. The maximization problem is subject to an intertemporal budget con- straint. In addition, there is an updating rule in subjective...

... of twenty-three to t~enty-nineThis work attempted to carry out, for the theory of probability, the program initiated by Russell and Whitehead for mathematics, namely, to pro- vide a logical foundation for the subject. At that time the only explicit theory which delineated the meaning...

... decision problem agents are solv- ing. John Muth (1961) proposed to resolve this problem by identifying agents subjective probabilities with observed frequencies of the events to be forecast, or with true probabilities, calling the assumed coinci- dence of subjective and true probabilities rational...

... subjective probabilities is not sufficient to make that occurrence new information. Agents may have subjective probabili- ties of subjective probabilities and may anticipate that the latter could change. Life may be viewed simply as an information service (Hirshleifer & Riley, 1394-97). I 2...

... Stouffer, Samuel A., 193-94 convergence among, 18 1 Straffin, Phillip, 213 reception of game theory by, 7, 10, Strategic equivalence, 54 11. See also specijic disciplines Strategy, games of, 15, 21, 23,45 The Theory of Games and Economic Subjective probability, 172...

... Economy 98.6 : 1325 – 48 . ———. 1991 . Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias . Journal of Economic Perspectives 5.1 : 193 – 206 . Kahneman D. Tversky A. . 1972 . Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness . Cognitive Psychology 3...

... of timing, the draft of a note by William Salant, which he wrote in 1964 when his thoughts momentarily returned to the subject (probably after having forgotten these earlier comments) but which he never published, bears on this issue and may be of some interest. This note, which...