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Journal Article
Revisiting the Past?: Big Data, Interwar Statistical Economics, and the Long History of Statistical Inference in the United States
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 175–203.
Published: 01 December 2021
... for statistical economics suggests a new long narrative about the history of statistical inference in the United States, one in which theory-driven econometrics and heavy reliance on mathematical probability appear as interludes rather than stable endpoints. [email protected] Copyright © 2021 Duke...
View articletitled, Revisiting the Past?: Big Data, Interwar <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> Economics, and the Long History of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in the United States
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for article titled, Revisiting the Past?: Big Data, Interwar <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> Economics, and the Long History of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in the United States
Journal Article
Statistical Inference in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock Forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 53–80.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Jeff Biddle Statistical inference is the process of drawing conclusions from samples of statistical data about things not fully described or recorded in those samples. During the 1920s, economists in the United States articulated a general approach to statistical inference that downplayed the value...
View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock Forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture
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for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock Forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture
Journal Article
Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...
View articletitled, Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Business Forecasting
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for article titled, Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Business Forecasting
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 1–24.
Published: 01 December 2021
... , no. 4 : 607 – 52 . Biddle Jeff E. 2017 . “ Statistical Inference in Economics, 1920–1965: Changes in Meaning and Practice .” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 39 , no. 2 : 149 – 74 . Biddle Jeff E. 2021 . Progress through Regression: The Life History...
View articletitled, Exploring the History of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Economics: Introduction
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for article titled, Exploring the History of <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> in Economics: Introduction
Journal Article
The Case against “Indirect” Statistical Inference: Wassily Leontief’s “Direct Induction” and The Structure of American Economy, 1919–29
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 259–292.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Amanar Akhabbar How to infer from uncontrolled data the numerical values of the parameters of an econometric model? In interwar econometrics, this problem of statistical induction was tackled in various ways. Wassily Leontief’s inter-industry method offers a case study of a nonprobabilistic...
View articletitled, The Case against “Indirect” <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>: Wassily Leontief’s “Direct Induction” and The Structure of American Economy, 1919–29
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for article titled, The Case against “Indirect” <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>: Wassily Leontief’s “Direct Induction” and The Structure of American Economy, 1919–29
Journal Article
Hotelling and Wilson on Statistical Inference: Local Attitudes and Universal Dreams
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History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (3): 561–586.
Published: 01 June 2024
... at odds with the common sentiment of the community of statisticians contemporary with them, a community that was highly skeptical about statistical inference grounded on probabilities. Their trajectories, however, differed, diverted by their entanglement with Stanford for Hotelling and Harvard for Wilson...
View articletitled, Hotelling and Wilson on <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>: Local Attitudes and Universal Dreams
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for article titled, Hotelling and Wilson on <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>: Local Attitudes and Universal Dreams
Journal Article
The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference
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History of Political Economy (1977) 9 (1): 154.
Published: 01 March 1977
..., Induction and Statistical Znference. By Ian Hacking. London
and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1975. Pp. 209. $15.95.
In nineteen brief chapters, Hacking explores the development of our mod-
ern conceptions of probability and induction in the context of fifteenth-
through...
View articletitled, The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>
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for article titled, The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span>
Journal Article
Narrative Inference with and without Statistics: Making Sense of Economic Cycles with Malthus and Kondratiev
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 113–138.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Mary S. Morgan This article investigates the role played by narrative in drawing inferences from statistics before the adoption of formal inference regimes in economics. Two well-known, and exemplary, cases of informal inference provide the materials. Nikolai Kondratiev’s struggles to make...
View articletitled, Narrative <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> with and without <span class="search-highlight">Statistics</span>: Making Sense of Economic Cycles with Malthus and Kondratiev
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for article titled, Narrative <span class="search-highlight">Inference</span> with and without <span class="search-highlight">Statistics</span>: Making Sense of Economic Cycles with Malthus and Kondratiev
Journal Article
Statistical Parables: Agricultural Economists, Development Discourse, and Paths to Modernization during the Cold War
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 27–52.
Published: 01 December 2021
... theories. Instead, he drew inferences from statistics in case studies to argue that no special economic theory was required in the development space. He packaged these studies as statistical parables to provoke skepticism of development theory among those involved in direct technical assistance...
View articletitled, <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> Parables: Agricultural Economists, Development Discourse, and Paths to Modernization during the Cold War
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for article titled, <span class="search-highlight">Statistical</span> Parables: Agricultural Economists, Development Discourse, and Paths to Modernization during the Cold War
Journal Article
F. Y. Edgeworth's Treatise on Probabilities
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History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 143–162.
Published: 01 March 2009
... of primitive prob-
abilities, defi ned directly in reference to experiential data collected in
statistical tables, or defi ned a priori in reference to antenatal experience.
Starting from these probabilities, and applying the rules of calculus of
probabilities, it is possible to infer complex...
Journal Article
Index
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
..., 75 Service, 158 regression analysis, 72 73, Breiman, Leo, 182 83 Britain, 251 52. See also Board of 75 76 statistical inference, 76 78 Trade, British weather, 74 75 British Association for the yield per acre, 71 72 Advancement of Science (BAAS), 236 37 Brookmire, James, 142, 145 forecasts, hog...
Journal Article
Jeffreys, Fisher, and Keynes: Predicting the Third Observation, Given the First Two
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History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 39–52.
Published: 01 December 1995
... (with discussion, 55–82). Fisher , R. A. 1939 . Student. Annals of Eugenics 9 : 1 -9. Fisher , R. A. 1973 . Statistical Methods for Research Workers . 14th ed. New York: Hafner. Hacking , I. 1965 . Logic of Statistical Inference . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Heath...
Journal Article
Keynes among the Statisticians
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History of Political Economy (2008) 40 (2): 265–316.
Published: 01 June 2008
... presented at the North American summer meeting of the Econometric Society, June. ———. 2007b . The Enigma of Karl Pearson and Bayesian Inference . Paper presented at the Karl Pearson Sesquicentenary Conference, the Royal Statistical Society, March. Bartlett, M. S. 1933 . Probability and Chance...
Journal Article
False Accounting as Formalizing Practices: The Computation of Macroeconomic Aggregates in African Countries since Structural Adjustment
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 81–110.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Boris Samuel This article studies the inference procedures used to compute the macroeconomic indicators feeding into the International Monetary Fund’s monitoring and surveillance in Africa since the structural adjustment. In 2005, the IMF launched a procedure to denounce a Mauritanian “misreporting...
View articletitled, False Accounting as Formalizing Practices: The Computation of Macroeconomic Aggregates in African Countries since Structural Adjustment
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for article titled, False Accounting as Formalizing Practices: The Computation of Macroeconomic Aggregates in African Countries since Structural Adjustment
Journal Article
The Econometricians' Statisticians, 1895–1945
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History of Political Economy (2010) 42 (1): 111–154.
Published: 01 March 2010
... . Harold Hotelling, 1895–1973. National Academy of Sciences 87 : 1 –15. Bennett, J. H., ed. 1990 . Statistical Inference and Analysis: Selected Correspondence of R. A. Fisher . Oxford: Oxford University Press. Biddle, J. 1999 . Statistical Economics, 1900–1950. HOPE 31 : 607 –51...
Journal Article
Wassily Leontief's Research Program: Science, Beliefs, Institutions
Available to Purchase
History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (4): 653–684.
Published: 01 August 2024
...), and his damning of “indirect” statistical inference and its complex procedures (Leontief 1953 : 5–7; 1971: 2–3). Leontief became even more vocal in the 1970s, starting with an indictment of economists during his presidential address in front of the American Economic Association (Leontief 1971 ). A few...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Economics in America: the Continental Influence
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History of Political Economy (1987) 19 (2): 173–182.
Published: 01 June 1987
... , Herbert 1952 . A scholar in action: Edwin F. Gay . Cambridge, Mass. Koopmans , Tjalling C. 1947 . ‘Measurement without theory.’ Review of Economic Statistics (Aug.). Koopmans , Tjalling C. 1950 . Statistical inference in dynamic economic models . Cowles Commission Monograph no. 10...
Journal Article
Keynes as a Philosopher
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History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 7–32.
Published: 01 December 1995
... and Expert Systems. Statistical Science 2 : 3 -44. Smith , C. A. B. 1961 . Consistency in Statistical Inference and Decision. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , series B, 23 : 1 -37. Suppes , Patrick 1960 . Some Open Problems in the Foundations of Subjective Probability...
Journal Article
Milton Friedman, the Statistical Methodologist
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History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 511–527.
Published: 01 September 2007
.... ____. 1973 . Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference . 3rd ed. New York: Hafner Press. Frankel, M., and L. King. 1996 . A Conversation with Leslie Kish. Statistical Science 11.1 : 66 -87. Frazer, W. 1988 . Power and Ideas: Milton Friedman and the Big U-Turn . Gainesville, Fla.: Gulf...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 395–421.
Published: 01 June 2023
... of Econometrics .” American Economic Review 73 : 31 – 43 . Lenel , Laetitia . 2021 . “ Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting .” In Exploring the History of Statistical Inference in Economics , edited by Jeff Biddle...
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