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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1990) 22 (2): 281–294.
Published: 01 June 1990
...-2702/9O/$1.50 Pattern predictions in economics: Hayek’s methodology of the social sciences revisited Karl-Heinz Paque‘ I. Introduction Throughout his long academic career Friedrich A. Hayek has been a fervent critic of what he calls “constructivist...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1970) 2 (1): 97–117.
Published: 01 March 1970
...Alfred F. Chalk Copyright © 1970 by Duke University Press 1970 Mr. Chalk is Professor of Economics at Texas A & M. University. Concepts of Change and the Role of Predictability in Economics Alfred F. Chalk In sum, we have...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 39–52.
Published: 01 December 1995
.... 1988 . De Finetti's Theorem, Induction, and A(n) or Bayesian Nonparametric Predictive Inference. In Bayesian Statistics . Vol. 3. Edited by J. M. Bernardo, et al. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Jeffreys , H. 1931 . Scientific Inference . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Jeffreys...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (3): 511–534.
Published: 01 September 2015
... regarding product quality, although not in the same terms as the modern literature. This retrospective analysis will help clarify how early economic thought can enlighten us both on the nature and consequences of quality uncertainty and the mechanisms to address it, and may have even predicted the issues...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 535–556.
Published: 01 June 2019
...Aurélien Goutsmedt; Erich Pinzón-Fuchs; Matthieu Renault; Francesco Sergi In 1976, Robert Lucas explicitly criticized Keynesian macroeconometric models for their inability to correctly predict the effects of alternative economic policies. Today, most contemporary macroeconomists and some historians...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (3): 471–492.
Published: 01 September 2012
... of man” was focal. There was a convergence on the idea that human nature is constant and uniform in its operating principles. By virtue of this constancy human nature was predictable so that once it was scientifically understood then, as Hume argued, a new foundation was possible for, inter alia, morals...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (1): 1–39.
Published: 01 March 2015
..., or at least generally predicted, what the outcome of airline deregulation would be. While Kahn himself acknowledged that market outcomes are, almost by definition, unpredictable, he clearly had some ideas of what the results of his would be. Here we look at what he thought would happen, what did happen...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (1): 101–133.
Published: 01 February 2020
... industries (it is higher in manufacturing industry than in services) and human demand for both agricultural and manufactured goods does not grow continuously and may be saturated. These two principles allowed him to propose a model which attempted to predict the high growth observed after World War II...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (2): 211–238.
Published: 01 April 2020
... contemporary exchanges with Wells as well as in several unpublished works and letters by both men. In addition to contextualizing a number of the intentionally vague predictions and prescriptions in “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” these findings establish deeper eugenic commitments in Keynes’s...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (S1): 1–9.
Published: 01 December 2020
...David Blockley This article contends that knowing and doing have become artificially separated in Western intellectual culture. The emphasis on scientific knowing has led to an overconfidence in our ability to predict the future and a neglect of the need to control complex and often unforeseen...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (3): 443–460.
Published: 01 June 2021
... individuals to plan and predict their economic and social future(s). This transition to future thinking opened European’s spaces of possibility during what Reinhart Koselleck famously labelled Europe’s Sattelzeit , c.1750–1850. Some have emphasized a European culture of dealing with contingency, which may...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
... after its establishment in 1919, the article explores the far-reaching changes in method and conviction from 1922 on. The members’ realization that the future evolved differently than predicted prompted them to give up their hope for mechanical means of forecasting and to revoke their calls...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (Supplement): 213–239.
Published: 01 December 2017
...-evidently constructing their observations rather than merely observing them. Apparent anomalies between the constructs and the predictions for economic man led to a fierce debate over the merits of contingent valuation—a debate that hinged on the question of whether economic theory was being “applied...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2013) 45 (suppl_1): 20–37.
Published: 01 December 2013
...., dietary reform), provoked heated contemporary debate, especially after his disastrous 1929 prediction of stock prices. Correspondence may be addressed to Robert W. Dimand, Department of Economics, Brock University, St. Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada; e-mail: dimand@brocku.ca . Copyright 2013...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (Suppl_1): 221–240.
Published: 01 December 2009
...John Toye Although Robert Solow never applied his neoclassical growth model to an underdeveloped country, neither did he ever exclude underdeveloped countries from its scope. For a generation, the model's use to predict worldwide convergence in levels of per capita income provided the main link...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 523–547.
Published: 01 June 2023
..., (ii) highlight causal mechanisms in economic theory, (iii) make some generalizations but without perfect predictions with economics, (iv) explore different scenarios from contingent events in the economy, and (v) illustrate economic ideas with fictional but plausible cases. The article concludes...
FIGURES
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (suppl_1): 23–48.
Published: 01 December 2015
... premises: British welfare—not to be confused with material wealth—depended on economic productivity, the prosperity of the working class, and an economic policy that maintained a stable demand for labor, ensuring predictable sources of employment and income. A. C. Pigou, who entered the controversy...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 57–88.
Published: 01 March 2009
... March, Corrado Gini, and other prominent economists of the time. The Harvard Economic Service, however, attracted criticism for its purely empirical approach, its failure to make consistently accurate predictions, and its pursuit of commercial objectives in a university setting. The Harvard group's...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (S1): 1–17.
Published: 01 December 2023
... tradition, of news epistemology, that unsettles the standard convictions of academic knowledge ways. Second, the practices of news organizations are key to understanding how these organizations transform contemporary life into news, marketable products of predictable format. The implication...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1978) 10 (2): 328–331.
Published: 01 June 1978
... to predict rather than in the realism of its assump- tions.* In his “Essays Towards a Solution of the Gold Question (1858- 603 Cairnes was concerned with explaining an important contem- porary economic phenomenon-a sustained rise in the world price level beginning at the end...