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narrative inference

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 113–138.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Mary S. Morgan This article investigates the role played by narrative in drawing inferences from statistics before the adoption of formal inference regimes in economics. Two well-known, and exemplary, cases of informal inference provide the materials. Nikolai Kondratiev’s struggles to make...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
... also contingent valuation debate, 176 Environmental Protection Agency model parameters, 263 64 (EPA), 309 12, 316 narrative inference, 118 exemplary cases, 28n2, 29 structural relations, 269 experimental economics, 190 teaching, 18 expert judgment textbooks, 20 21 forecasting, 165 69 economic...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 175–203.
Published: 01 December 2021
... for statistical economics suggests a new long narrative about the history of statistical inference in the United States, one in which theory-driven econometrics and heavy reliance on mathematical probability appear as interludes rather than stable endpoints. Revisiting the Past? Big Data, Interwar Statistical...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 395–421.
Published: 01 June 2023
... . “ Narrative Inference With and Without Statistics: Making Sense of Economic Cycles with Malthus and Kondratiev .” In Exploring the History of Statistical Inference in Economics , edited by Jeff Biddle and Marcel Boumans . History of Political Economy 53 ( supplement ): 113 – 38...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 1–24.
Published: 01 December 2021
... to the balance of payments to derive estimates of unmeasured macroeconomic quantities from the data available to them. Morgan s contribution to the volume makes the intriguing proposal that the construction of narratives might be a process through which research- ers arrive at inferences, which would make...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (4): 795–797.
Published: 01 August 2023
..., persuading grant committees to fund them. “We have to understand this. But we also must understand that narratives that are simple, clear, and memorable may speak more of our own cognitive constraints than of any underlying reality” (120). Facts are the results of some kind of inference (or “learning...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 27–52.
Published: 01 December 2021
... in 1979. The expected audience for that book functionaries and political authorities shaped the narrative structure of the arguments. Moreover, the durability of the storytelling around the arguments in that book helped me to think about the nature of statistical parables. Statistical inferences are made...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (4): 609–638.
Published: 01 August 2023
... inference methods are often inappropriate. Finally, Bates et al. ( 1998 ) show that narrative evidence is sometimes distinctly informative in the study of institutions. To see how an analytic narrative might be applied in practice, we briefly describe a classic article that uses this method...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1993) 25 (suppl_1): 69–82.
Published: 01 January 1993
... in the wrong direc­ tion. Consequently, error does not appear in his narrative as temporary interference in the course of overall progress. Rather, ever-deepening error turns out to define Mirowski’s plot structure. One false turn in thinking about value in terms of utility...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 227–258.
Published: 01 December 2021
... his hypotheses was crucially important. As the following narrative shows, his use of the quantity theory to measure the commodity prices to infer changes in the value of gold was not disputed by his contemporaries. However, his use of index number measurements to infer that gold had depreciated...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2013) 45 (3): 475–504.
Published: 01 September 2013
.... The latter account is comprised of two analyti- cally related narratives, one concerning the ability of capitalists to appro- priate surplus value in the absence of any direct control of the production process (a scenario corresponding primarily to certain commercial trans- actions prior to the era...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2008) 40 (2): 265–316.
Published: 01 June 2008
... presented at the North American summer meeting of the Econometric Society, June. ———. 2007b . The Enigma of Karl Pearson and Bayesian Inference . Paper presented at the Karl Pearson Sesquicentenary Conference, the Royal Statistical Society, March. Bartlett, M. S. 1933 . Probability and Chance...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 423–446.
Published: 01 June 2023
... of economics that obliges someone to make causal inferences on the basis of quantitative statistical data instead of narrative sequences of events. Indeed, for a political economy number such as the price of government funds, it makes perfect sense to focus on the sequence of events as essential...
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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (Supplement): 127–157.
Published: 01 December 2017
... and the expertise they possess. First documenting their growth bibliometrically, this article aims to illuminate the origins, content, and contexts of quasi-experimental research designs, which seek natural experiments to justify causal inference. To highlight lines of continuity and discontinuity in the transition...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2006) 38 (Suppl_1): 343–379.
Published: 01 December 2006
... historians and not the plotlines, or even major chapter headings. Further, there is the problem that each new twist and turn in the center of gravity of the orthodoxy of a discipline implies (although never ratifies) a recasting of the narrative of what went before, suggesting new lines of genealogy...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2010) 42 (1): 111–154.
Published: 01 March 2010
... . Harold Hotelling, 1895–1973. National Academy of Sciences 87 : 1 –15. Bennett, J. H., ed. 1990 . Statistical Inference and Analysis: Selected Correspondence of R. A. Fisher . Oxford: Oxford University Press. Biddle, J. 1999 . Statistical Economics, 1900–1950. HOPE 31 : 607 –51...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1998) 30 (Supplement): 260–292.
Published: 01 December 1998
.... Journal of Political Economy 52 : 289 -318. Koopmans , Tjalling 1950 . Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models . Cowles Commission Monograph 10. New York: Wiley. Lange , Oskar , Francis McIntire, and Theodore Yntema 1942 . Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2003) 35 (4): 779–781.
Published: 01 November 2003
... as products of their cultureForFisher and Jeffreys, the meaning of probability and the development of a theory of inference evolved in each case with a particular conception of scientific practice, characterized by the differing aims and method of genetics and geophysics respectively” (226). A sketch...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (S1): 55–74.
Published: 01 December 2023
... titillating the sensibilities of the middle class and exposing real social injustices, newspapers sold copies by exploiting sensationalized narratives of trembling virgins and innocent children, wild-eyed drunks and child pickpockets, proud but impoverished elders and morally ambiguous mothers. The purported...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 226–249.
Published: 01 December 2012
... . Koopmans Tjalling C. 1950 . Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models . New York : Wiley . Kydland Finn E. Prescott Edward C. . 1982 . “ Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations .” Econometrica 50 ( 6 ): 1345 – 70 . ———. 1990 . “ Business Cycles: Real Facts...