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informal inference

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 113–138.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Mary S. Morgan This article investigates the role played by narrative in drawing inferences from statistics before the adoption of formal inference regimes in economics. Two well-known, and exemplary, cases of informal inference provide the materials. Nikolai Kondratiev’s struggles to make...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 53–80.
Published: 01 December 2021
... in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock Forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture Jeff Biddle Broadly speaking, statistical inference refers to the process by which one uses information obtained from samples of statistical data to draw conclu- sions about phenomena beyond those recorded...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 1–24.
Published: 01 December 2021
.... Crossing the line from description of the information in a sample to inference about things beyond the sample, no matter how inconspicuous the act of crossing may be, necessarily involves making assumptions, implicitly or explicitly, about the relationship between the data in the sample and the phenomena...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 227–258.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Aashish Velkar Index numbers are indirect measurements as well as composite quantities that present particular inferential challenges to the measurer and their intended audiences. The early history of the use of index numbers in British economics (ca. 1860–1914) shows that making inferences using...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 259–292.
Published: 01 December 2021
... of science shows in this reference to direct observation.12 Here, I do not discuss the methodological founda- tions of Leontief s approach. I admit he considered the basic statistical information from which economists draw inferences directly observable facts or direct observations. In this perspective...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 175–203.
Published: 01 December 2021
... for statistical economics suggests a new long narrative about the history of statistical inference in the United States, one in which theory-driven econometrics and heavy reliance on mathematical probability appear as interludes rather than stable endpoints. Revisiting the Past? Big Data, Interwar Statistical...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 39–52.
Published: 01 December 1995
.... London , series A 139: 343 -48. Fisher , R. A. 1934 . Probability Likelihood and Quantity of Information in the Logic of Uncertain Inference. Proc. Royal Soc. London , series A 146: 1 -8. Fisher , R. A. 1935 . The Logic of Inductive Inference. J. Roy. Stat. Soc . 98 :39-54...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 7–32.
Published: 01 December 1995
... University Press. Levi , Isaac 1974 . On Indeterminate Probabilities. Journal of Philosophy 71 : 391 -418. Lindley , Dennis V. 1977 . The Distinction between Inference and Decision. Synthese 36 : 51 -58. Maher , Patrick 1993 . Betting on Theories . Cambridge: Cambridge...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 143–162.
Published: 01 March 2009
... are necessary for inferring complex probabilities, as the ones defined by Bayes's theorem—an enlargement of the frequentist tradition as defined by Venn. The notion of probability is objective; the passage from the objective sphere to the epistemic one requires rules external to the theory of probability...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1990) 22 (2): 359–379.
Published: 01 June 1990
...” children and in- cluded information about the parents’ drinking habits. Keynes argued that one could not infer that alcoholism had no effect on child de- velopment without more information about the sample. “With regard to the question whether alcoholism increases the tendency to feeble...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2008) 40 (2): 265–316.
Published: 01 June 2008
.... ———. 1928 . On a Distribution Yielding the Error Functions of Several Well Known Statistics. Proceedings of the International Congress of Mathematicians 2 : 805 -13. ———. 1934 . Probability, Likelihood, and the Quantity of Information in the Logic of Uncertain Inference. Proceedings of the Royal...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 293–323.
Published: 01 December 2021
... in this journal, the emphasis here is on the relation between indirect and direct inference pertaining to both methods, and the challenges that contingent valuation, as a method of direct inference, poses to the quality of a questionnaire and the possibilities of educating respondents in making a reasoned choice...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2010) 42 (1): 111–154.
Published: 01 March 2010
... ducial inference. 13. For further biographical information, see Smith 1978, Darnell 1988, and Arrow and Lehmann 2005. 14. Fisher’s hostility to inverse probability, or Bayesian inference, is described in Aldrich 2008a. 15. The framework is described in Aldrich 2005...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2001) 33 (4): 743–772.
Published: 01 November 2001
... of utilized probabilities. By way of example, we can consider the review by Alessandro Vercelli (1998), which, while introducing a typology of probability for classifying the theory of ex- pected utility, does not pay any marked attention to the problem of the foundations. Instead, inferences could...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1993) 25 (suppl_1): 69–82.
Published: 01 January 1993
...” (Fuller 1988, 1989, 1992a), is quite clear. Mirowski revives the lost art of “ synthetic” or “universal” history, that is, history with a point. The historiography that informed the philosophy of science throughout most of the nine­ teenth and twentieth centuries...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 81–110.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Boris Samuel This article studies the inference procedures used to compute the macroeconomic indicators feeding into the International Monetary Fund’s monitoring and surveillance in Africa since the structural adjustment. In 2005, the IMF launched a procedure to denounce a Mauritanian “misreporting...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 395–421.
Published: 01 June 2023
... : 31 – 43 . Lenel , Laetitia . 2021 . “ Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting .” In Exploring the History of Statistical Inference in Economics , edited by Jeff Biddle and Marcel Boumans . History...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1987) 19 (2): 173–182.
Published: 01 June 1987
... an informal seminar on econometric problems in New York with Haavelmo, Koopmans, and Wald among the participants, and he probably had a good idea that the time was ripe for the bold program to be realized. The fusion came in two stages. It required, first, finding a method of statistical inference...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1993) 25 (3): 435–460.
Published: 01 September 1993
... of approximation (“inductive quantification in order to infer the ef- fects of causes and to derive approximate laws. He carried out these recommendations in his own applied economics, by estimating an em- pirical demand function, and by measuring the effect of the influx of gold as well as currency wear...