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inference to the best model

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 493–513.
Published: 01 June 2019
...Hsiang-Ke Chao Empirical tests in economics may not decisively confirm or disconfirm a theory. Three cases of studies of consumption function from the 1930s to the early 1970s discussed in this article show that we can interpret economists’ practices as inferences to derive the best model from...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (5): 805–826.
Published: 01 October 2019
...: An Introduction to the World of Proofs and Pictures. New York: Routledge. Chao, Hsiang-Ke. 2019. Inference to the Best Model of the Consumption Function. In The History of Macroeconometric Modeling, edited by Marcel Boumans and Pedro Garcia Duarte. Special issue, History of Political Economy 51 (3): 493 514...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 113–138.
Published: 01 December 2021
... to tease out the relevant inferential questions (about what was to be aligned with what, and how, in statistical models). Modern practices often lose these significant parts of the sequence of drawing inferences from evidence.8 In addition, as Deirdre McCloskey warned long ago, such inferential output...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 1–24.
Published: 01 December 2021
...-understood properties, such as the linear regression model. It is also assumed that the set of observations of the relevant variables is a random sample of observations taken from the population of interest. Statistical inference is, then, a matter of applying formulas to this sample information. A formula...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1995) 27 (Supplement): 7–32.
Published: 01 December 1995
.... This suggests that we can indeed somewhat generalize the notion of logical validity. An inference is logically valid if the conclusion is true in every model of our language in which the premises are true. It is probabilistically valid, or near-valid, if it is true in almost all the models of our...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 175–203.
Published: 01 December 2021
... process is repeated with a slightly different training algorithm. The version of the model that best matches its reserved test sample is taken as the most robust iteration. In short, prediction across multiple data sets is the key criterion for algorithmic modeling, not calculations of standard errors...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
... also contingent valuation debate, 176 Environmental Protection Agency model parameters, 263 64 (EPA), 309 12, 316 narrative inference, 118 exemplary cases, 28n2, 29 structural relations, 269 experimental economics, 190 teaching, 18 expert judgment textbooks, 20 21 forecasting, 165 69 economic...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1987) 19 (2): 173–182.
Published: 01 June 1987
... , Herbert 1952 . A scholar in action: Edwin F. Gay . Cambridge, Mass. Koopmans , Tjalling C. 1947 . ‘Measurement without theory.’ Review of Economic Statistics (Aug.). Koopmans , Tjalling C. 1950 . Statistical inference in dynamic economic models . Cowles Commission Monograph no. 10...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2010) 42 (1): 111–154.
Published: 01 March 2010
... by Koop- mans with the ratio of the error variances known maximum likelihood is consistent.33 “The Fitting of Straight Lines” appeared when econometricians were turning to dynamic models of the kind used by Tinbergen (1939); Ney- man’s wish for a statistical inference complement to Wold’s...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 226–249.
Published: 01 December 2012
... . Koopmans Tjalling C. 1950 . Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models . New York : Wiley . Kydland Finn E. Prescott Edward C. . 1982 . “ Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations .” Econometrica 50 ( 6 ): 1345 – 70 . ———. 1990 . “ Business Cycles: Real Facts...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1990) 22 (2): 359–379.
Published: 01 June 1990
... concern that Keynes had with econometrics was with Tin- bergen’s early applications of the regression model. This points to a second reason: the response may confuse econometrics with the regres- sion model. But just as surely as regression is an important part of the history of econometrics...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 86–105.
Published: 01 December 2011
.... . 1959 . The Dynamic Properties of the Klein-Goldberger Model . Econometrica 27 : 596 – 625 . Adelman I. 2007 . The Research for the Paper on the Dynamics of the Klein-Goldberger Model . Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 32.1 : 29 – 33 . Anderson R. G. 2006...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1975) 7 (4): 499–529.
Published: 01 November 1975
.... Parsons, Zetterberg, and Homans agreed on the general model of theory; the “methodology” of the new causal theorists was a side issue at best. Blalock’s Causal Inferences proved to be new causal theory’s first program statement. Costner and Leik44had proposed the neces- sity...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 35–56.
Published: 01 December 2011
... on both limited informa- tion maximum likelihood (1949) and inference in factor models (1956). Factor analysis and stochastic equations both appear in the concluding further topics chapter of Anderson’s Multivariate Statistical Analysis 18. See Aldrich 2010a for references. 19. See Koopmans...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2023) 55 (3): 395–421.
Published: 01 June 2023
... historical questions, then . . .  Apply cartel rivalry model, then . . .  Etc. In this example, the constraints of models on history and history on models are sufficiently tight that the inference gap (i.e., what is left in the history that remained “unexplained” by applying the models...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 211–232.
Published: 01 December 2011
... as it was by the centrality assigned to statistics and demography, which were endowed with the role of struc- turing a sociological model to infer policies aimed at attaining happiness. The distinctive traits of Gini’s scientific work can be summarized as (1) collecting data from history/reality and processing them...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1969) 1 (2): 359–369.
Published: 01 June 1969
...), For the philosophical debate that should have taken place between Senior and Marx, mathematical models are at best merely illustrative. Still intellectual honesty requires that illustrations be appropriate and be used appropriately. If Marx had really intended to join the issue with Senior, he should have...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1984) 16 (2): 291–309.
Published: 01 June 1984
... of knowing for sure until a horse race is held. 25 Clearly, the horse race Sargent had in mind was to be an empirical one.26 But instead, also in 1975, Sargent, in a paper with Wallace, set up a theoretical horse race. 27 The authors built a macroeconomic model struc- ture with the stated...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1997) 29 (suppl_1): 143–171.
Published: 01 January 1997
...- or interpersonally, it seems premature at best and unreasonable at worst to write off measurement out of hand, as a m p do. 4.1. Commensurability With respect to z'n/rapersonal comparability of values, a m p invoke the in­ commensurability argument. This argument asserts that if an alternative...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1990) 22 (2): 281–294.
Published: 01 June 1990
... searches—ad hoc inference with nonex-perimental data . New York: John Wiley & Sons. Leamer , Edward E. 1983 . Let's take the con out of econometrics. American Economic Review 73 : 31 -43. Popper , Karl R. 1957 . The poverty of historicism . London: Routledge & Kegan Paul...