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history of statistical forecasting

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
... context in the history of economics. Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting Laetitia Lenel By the early twentieth century, the existence of a so-called trade or busi- ness cycle had become commonplace. The idea of crises as abnormal...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 53–80.
Published: 01 December 2021
...’ in Forecasting Crop Production .” Journal of Farm Economics 5 , no. 4 : 185 – 97 . Didier Emmanuel . 2012 . “ Cunning Observation: US Agricultural Statistics in the Time of Laissez-Faire .” In Observation and Observing in Economics , edited by Maas Haaro Morgan Mary S. . History...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 481–510.
Published: 01 September 2007
... Tinbergen’s Method. Economic Journal 49.195:558–77. Klein, J. L. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time: A History of Time Series Analysis, 1662–1938. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Klein, L. 1958. Econometric and Sample Survey Methods of Forecasting. In Business Forecasting. London: Market...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 57–88.
Published: 01 March 2009
... on the History of Business-Cycle Analysis . Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Brookmire, James M. 1913 . Methods of Business Forecasting Based on Fundamental Statistics. American Economic Review 3.1 : 43 -58. Bullock, C. J., and W. L. Crum. 1932 . The Harvard...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (2): 233–265.
Published: 01 June 2017
... anonymous referees. Copyright 2017 by Duke University Press 2017 econometrics forecasting marketing business history statistics finance References Alchon Guy . 1985 . The Invisible Hand of Planning: Capitalism, Social Science, and the State in the 1920s . Princeton...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2000) 32 (Suppl_1): 95–116.
Published: 01 December 2000
...: An Evaluation. Econometrica 36.3/4 : 437 -63. Theil, Henri. 1958 . Economic Forecasts and Policy . Amsterdam: North Holland. Tinbergen, Jan. 1939 . Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories II: Business Cycles in the United States of America, 1919-1932 . Geneva: League of Nations. Turnovsky...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2006) 38 (Suppl_1): 9–31.
Published: 01 December 2006
... in the Boston Wholesale Market . New York: Columbia University Press. Working, Elmer J. 1927 . What Do Statistical “Demand Curves” Show? Quarterly Journal of Economics 41 : 212 -35. ____. 1930 . Evaluation of Methods Used in Commodity Price Forecasting. Journal of Farm Economics 12 : 119 -33...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
... other empirical 252 economists, 77 78 statistics generation, 239 40 Smith, Bradford B., 65 66 Booth, Charles, 238n12 establishment, 44, 56, 59 Boumans, Marcel, 229, 260, 282 forecasts, 54, 55n1 Bowditch, Henry Pickering, 217 18 forecasts, crop yields, 54 Bowley, Arthur acreage to be harvested, 70 71...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2002) 34 (2): 291–320.
Published: 01 June 2002
.... Journal of Political Economy 62.6 : 465 -78. Gumbel, Emil J. 1958 . Statistics of Extremes . New York: Columbia University Press. Hands, D. Wade. 1990 . Grunberg and Modigliani, Public Predictions, and the New Classical Macroeconomics. Research in the History of Economic Thought...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1981) 13 (3): 580–599.
Published: 01 September 1981
... Statistical Office. 588 History of Political Economy 13:3 (1981) prises and to provide staff for central financial institutions and banks.14 The Faculty of Commerce of the University comprises three depart- ments: the Department for External Economy (foreign trade and exter- nal economic...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 493–513.
Published: 01 June 2019
... . “ The Consumption Function as a Tool for Prediction ”. Review of Economics and Statistics 34 ( 3 ): 270 – 77 . Duesenberry James S. 1949 . Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior . Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University Press . Epstein Roy J. 1987 . A History...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 137–159.
Published: 01 December 2012
... . Smithies A. 1945 . “ Forecasting Postwar Demand: I .” Econometrica 13 ( 1 ): 1 – 14 . Smithies A. Kyrk H. Orcutt G. H. Passer H. C. Seidman B. Stouffer S. Tobin J. . 1955 . Consumer Survey Statistics: Report [submitted to] the Subcommittee on Economic...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 188–210.
Published: 01 December 2011
.... Kawagoe M. . 2009 . How Different Are Non-specialists’ Forecasts from Specialists’? ESRI Discussion Paper Series No. 227 , Tokyo . Ikeo A. 1993 . Japanese Modern Economics, 1930–1945 . In vol. 9 of Perspectives in the History of Economic Thought , edited by Hébert R. F...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (1): 201–203.
Published: 01 March 2015
...Robert W. Dimand Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters . By Friedman Walter A. . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press , 2014 . xi ; 273 pp. Hardcover $29.95 . Copyright 2015 by Duke University Press 2015 References Cox Garfield V...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 114–136.
Published: 01 December 2012
...Marcel Boumans This article provides a history of the treatment of observational errors where conditions cannot be controlled to reduce inaccuracies, more specific, a history of the discussion of errors in social statistics. The main focus is on Oskar Morgenstern’s atypical position...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 140–165.
Published: 01 December 2011
... . The Problem of Passive Observation . HOPE 42.1 : 75 – 110 . Chang Ching-Gwan Liu Ta-Chung . 1951 . Monthly Estimates of Certain National Product Components, 1946–49 . Review of Economics and Statistics 33.3 : 219 – 27 . Chao Hsiang-Ke . 2009 . Representation and Structure...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2020) 52 (S1): 143–167.
Published: 01 December 2020
... 14 , no. 2 : 225 – 52 . Muth John F . 1960 . “ Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts .” Journal of the American Statistical Association 55 , no. 290 : 299 – 306 . Muth John F . 1961 . “ Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2001) 33 (Suppl_1): 86–110.
Published: 01 December 2001
... is characterized by a form of paradox: it is the ultimate aim of statistics but at the same time it 23. Such an analysis perfectly fits the history of econometrics (Le Gall 2001a). 106 Franck Jovanovic and Philippe Le Gall marks the end of science. Indeed, March believed that forecasting...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1998) 30 (1): 51–94.
Published: 01 March 1998
... for the prediction of future frequencies and associations” (CW 8:368). There was “great danger in quantitative forecasts which are based exclusively on statistics relating to conditions which are by no means parallel” (CW 23: 192). Keynes was concerned that the statisticians’ occupational disease...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (1): 1–40.
Published: 01 February 2024
... that forecasting contributed to shape available policy options. He dismissed the mere extrapolation of a set of statistics as a guide for monetary policy, but he also understood that relying on econometrics was hampered by the lack of a “demand for money equation,” as he wrote in 1977 ([Dow] 2013: 93). In fact...
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