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forecasting

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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 481–510.
Published: 01 September 2007
...Tobias F. Rötheli Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory Tobias F. Rötheli When a man enters business, he enters a forecasting profession. He may forecast badly or well, but forecast he must...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 57–88.
Published: 01 March 2009
...Walter A. Friedman The Harvard Economic Service pioneered the business of economic forecasting by publishing a weekly newsletter on economic conditions, starting in 1922. The Harvard forecasting model, developed by the statistician and economist Warren Persons, gained international renown for its...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 53–80.
Published: 01 December 2021
... to forecast supplies of various agricultural products. Forecasting represents an interesting case for studying the development of inferential methods, as analysts receive regular feedback on the effectiveness of their inferences when forecasts are compared with actual events. biddle@msu.edu Copyright...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (1): 201–203.
Published: 01 March 2015
...Robert W. Dimand References Cox Garfield V. 1929 . An Appraisal of American Business Forecasts . Chicago : University of Chicago Press . Revised in 1930 . Dimand Robert W. Veloce William . 2010 . “ Alfred Cowles and Robert Rhea on the Predictability of Stock Prices...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2000) 32 (Suppl_1): 95–116.
Published: 01 December 2000
...Robert S. Goldfarb; H. O. Stekler Duke University Press 2000 Alexander, Sidney. 1958 . Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting. The Economic Journal 68.270 : 288 -301. Backhouse, Roger. 1997 . Truth and Progress in Economic Thought . Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (2): 233–265.
Published: 01 June 2017
...Thomas A. Stapleford From 1910–1940, the practice of business and the practice of economics came to inform one another in novel ways, a reconfiguration that included the emergence of econometrics. The core locus for this intersection came from the rise of commercial forecasting—whether analyses...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (Supplement): 158–186.
Published: 01 December 2017
...Verena Halsmayer The 1960s were the glorious age of large-scale, “economy-wide” macroeconometric models, which enabled forecasts and simulations of the quantitative effects of certain policy changes within systems of simultaneous equations. This article is concerned (1) with the form and character...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2006) 38 (Suppl_1): 9–31.
Published: 01 December 2006
... Newman. London: Macmillan. Glover, W. H. 1952 . Farm and College . Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Green, R. M. 1926 . Batting Averages in Agricultural Forecasting. Journal of Farm Economics 8 : 174 -93. Griliches, Zvi. 1958 . The Demand for Fertilizer: An Econometric...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2013) 45 (1): 1–38.
Published: 01 March 2013
... .” In Short-Term Economic Forecasting , 352 – 59 . Studies in Income and Wealth 17 . Princeton : Princeton University Press . Crowther-Heyck H. 2006a . “ Herbert Simon and the GSIA: Building an Interdisciplinary Community .” Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences 42 ( 4 ): 311...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
..., Sascha, 188 Bullock, Charles, 142, 147n2 Beveridge, William, 158 60, 163 forecasting, 150 53, 157, 161, Biddle, Jeff, 18 19, 176, 179, 181 82, 164 65 Harvard Committee on Economic 198, 260 Research, 142, 162 big data. See data revolution London and Cambridge Economic Big Push proposals, 33 Service, 157...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2002) 34 (2): 291–320.
Published: 01 June 2002
... Isn't an Empirical Endeavor: Mandelbrot, Chaos, and the Noah and Joseph Effects. Recherche économiche 43.1-2 : 76 -99. ____. 1990 . From Mandelbrot to Chaos in Economic Theory. Southern Economic Journal 57.2 : 289 -307. Modigliani, Franco, and H. Martin Weingartner. 1958 . Forecasting...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (S1): 127–151.
Published: 01 December 2019
...-industrial complex forecasting I thank the participants of the 2018 HOPE conference for comments on earlier drafts, especially Yakov Feygin. Brian Wheaton was of invaluable help with Yaremenko’s econometrics. References Anchishkin Aleksandr I. Ershov Emil B. 1966 . Printsipy...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1981) 13 (3): 580–599.
Published: 01 September 1981
... fundamental contradictions arising from the need to find a proper place for economic rationality within the value system, and, on the other, of reconciling the forecasts and expectations -which could not, of course, be based on experience-with the existing politicoeconomic situation...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1997) 29 (2): 185–200.
Published: 01 June 1997
... to the highest bidders, whose expectations tend to have an optimistic bias. That forecasting abilities differ is a fact of life. Even if expectations are unbiased in the aggregate, there are always optimists, pessimists, and realists. Efficiency requires that productive resources are controlled...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 493–513.
Published: 01 June 2019
.... Jan , 45 – 57 . Amsterdam : North-Holland . Bratt Elmer Clark . 1953 . “ A Reconsideration of the Postwar Forecasts ”. Journal of Business 26 ( 2 ): 71 – 83 . Bronfenbrenner M. 1948 . “ The Consumption Function Controversy ”. Southern Economic Journal 14 ( 3 ): 304...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 140–165.
Published: 01 December 2011
... to modification in future trials, Liu first used the term in 1955 to refer specifically to the use of structural models in an initial stage of forecasting model construction. As the present essay dem- onstrates, exploratory well describes the evolution of Liu’s econometric methodology and practices...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 137–159.
Published: 01 December 2012
... the 1960s, was challenged by the SCBI and the SCBE. Opposing Katona’s aim of understanding consumer behavior, these two surveys were designed to forecast durable goods sales. Section 1 begins by presenting the theoretical underpinnings of the SCF. It introduces Katona’s early work in his attempt...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1976) 8 (3): 367–379.
Published: 01 September 1976
... . Economic Theory in Retrospect . Homewood, Ill. Boyarsky , A. Ia. 1972 . “On Long-Term Forecast Methods in Planned Economy”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 8 : 867 -77 Brin , M. I. , and T. S. Rychkova. 1973 . “On an Investment Lag Model”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 9...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2001) 33 (4): 773–813.
Published: 01 November 2001
.... Lucas and T. Sargent. London: Allen and Unwin. ____. 1985 . Properties of Some Short-Run Business Forecasts. Eastern Economic Journal 11.3 : 200 -210. ____. 1991a . Letter to authors , 2 August. ____. 1991b . Letter to authors , 5 September. ____. 1991c . Letter to authors , 14...