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Journal Article
The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting
Available to Purchase
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 57–88.
Published: 01 March 2009
...Walter A. Friedman The Harvard Economic Service pioneered the business of economic forecasting by publishing a weekly newsletter on economic conditions, starting in 1922. The Harvard forecasting model, developed by the statistician and economist Warren Persons, gained international renown for its...
Journal Article
Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory
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History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 481–510.
Published: 01 September 2007
... Macroeconomics That Fisher and Wicksell Did Not? Quarterly Journal of Economics 115.4 : 1375 -1409. Burns, E. M. 1929 . Statistics and Economic Forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 24.166 : 152 -63. Christ, C. F. 1983 . The Founding of the Econometric Society...
Journal Article
Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 139–174.
Published: 01 December 2021
...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...
View articletitled, Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business <span class="search-highlight">Forecasting</span>
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Journal Article
Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters
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History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (1): 201–203.
Published: 01 March 2015
...Robert W. Dimand Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters . By Friedman Walter A. . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press , 2014 . xi ; 273 pp. Hardcover $29.95 . Copyright 2015 by Duke University Press 2015 References Cox Garfield V...
Journal Article
Statistical Inference in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock Forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture
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History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 53–80.
Published: 01 December 2021
... to forecast supplies of various agricultural products. Forecasting represents an interesting case for studying the development of inferential methods, as analysts receive regular feedback on the effectiveness of their inferences when forecasts are compared with actual events. [email protected] Copyright...
View articletitled, Statistical Inference in Economics in the 1920s and 1930s: The Crop and Livestock <span class="search-highlight">Forecasts</span> of the US Department of Agriculture
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Journal Article
Why Do Empirical Results Change? Forecasts as Tests of Rational Expectations
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History of Political Economy (2000) 32 (Suppl_1): 95–116.
Published: 01 December 2000
...Robert S. Goldfarb; H. O. Stekler Duke University Press 2000 Alexander, Sidney. 1958 . Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting. The Economic Journal 68.270 : 288 -301. Backhouse, Roger. 1997 . Truth and Progress in Economic Thought . Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar...
Journal Article
Business and the Making of American Econometrics, 1910–1940
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History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (2): 233–265.
Published: 01 June 2017
...Thomas A. Stapleford From 1910–1940, the practice of business and the practice of economics came to inform one another in novel ways, a reconfiguration that included the emergence of econometrics. The core locus for this intersection came from the rise of commercial forecasting—whether analyses...
Journal Article
A Model to “Make Decisions and Take Actions”: Leif Johansen’s Multisector Growth Model, Computerized Macroeconomic Planning, and Resilient Infrastructures for Policymaking
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History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (Supplement): 158–186.
Published: 01 December 2017
...Verena Halsmayer The 1960s were the glorious age of large-scale, “economy-wide” macroeconometric models, which enabled forecasts and simulations of the quantitative effects of certain policy changes within systems of simultaneous equations. This article is concerned (1) with the form and character...
View articletitled, A Model to “Make Decisions and Take Actions”: Leif Johansen’s Multisector Growth Model, Computerized Macroeconomic Planning, and Resilient Infrastructures for Policymaking
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Journal Article
Hotelling and Wilson on Statistical Inference: Local Attitudes and Universal Dreams
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History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (3): 561–586.
Published: 01 June 2024
... such as the statistical determination of demand curves, business cycles, yield forecasting, population growth, and many others. Hotelling and Wilson shared much: both were trained in mathematics, both were convinced of the importance of developing inferential statistical tools based on probability theory, and both were...
Journal Article
Six Decades of Economic Research at the Bank of England
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History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (1): 1–40.
Published: 01 February 2024
... in particular. Such “policy-oriented research” was legitimized by its use in policymaking routines (reports and forecasts feeding briefings and meetings and supporting implementation of the policy decisions). While professional standards from academia were also relevant in validating and legitimizing policy...
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Journal Article
The Other Economics Department: Demand and Value Theory in Early Agricultural Economics
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History of Political Economy (2006) 38 (Suppl_1): 9–31.
Published: 01 December 2006
... Newman. London: Macmillan. Glover, W. H. 1952 . Farm and College . Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Green, R. M. 1926 . Batting Averages in Agricultural Forecasting. Journal of Farm Economics 8 : 174 -93. Griliches, Zvi. 1958 . The Demand for Fertilizer: An Econometric...
Journal Article
Modigliani’s and Simon’s Early Contributions to Uncertainty (1952–61)
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History of Political Economy (2013) 45 (1): 1–38.
Published: 01 March 2013
... on learning was espe-
cially devoted to replacing the neoclassical postulate of rationality and
enlarging the traditional boundaries of economics to other disciplines. In
contrast, Modigliani’s focus on the ability to forecast made the maximiza-
tion assumption consistent with the hypothesis...
Journal Article
The Making of Informational Efficiency: Information Policy and Theory in Interwar Agricultural Economics
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History of Political Economy (2024) 56 (4): 685–711.
Published: 01 August 2024
..., 1928, a Senate report estimated that forecast information on cotton prices from the department caused a market collapse and led to cotton grower losses estimated at between $300 and $400 million ( New York Times 1928). The department agency under attack was the Bureau of Agricultural Economics...
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Journal Article
Index
Available to Purchase
History of Political Economy (2021) 53 (S1): 327–342.
Published: 01 December 2021
..., Sascha, 188 Bullock, Charles, 142, 147n2 Beveridge, William, 158 60, 163 forecasting, 150 53, 157, 161, Biddle, Jeff, 18 19, 176, 179, 181 82, 164 65 Harvard Committee on Economic 198, 260 Research, 142, 162 big data. See data revolution London and Cambridge Economic Big Push proposals, 33 Service, 157...
Journal Article
How (Not) to Influence People: The Contrary Tale of John F. Muth
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History of Political Economy (2002) 34 (2): 291–320.
Published: 01 June 2002
... Isn't an Empirical Endeavor: Mandelbrot, Chaos, and the Noah and Joseph Effects. Recherche économiche 43.1-2 : 76 -99. ____. 1990 . From Mandelbrot to Chaos in Economic Theory. Southern Economic Journal 57.2 : 289 -307. Modigliani, Franco, and H. Martin Weingartner. 1958 . Forecasting...
Journal Article
Administrative Monsters: Yurii Yaremenko’s Critique of the Late Soviet State
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History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (S1): 127–151.
Published: 01 December 2019
...-industrial complex forecasting I thank the participants of the 2018 HOPE conference for comments on earlier drafts, especially Yakov Feygin. Brian Wheaton was of invaluable help with Yaremenko’s econometrics. References Anchishkin Aleksandr I. Ershov Emil B. 1966 . Printsipy...
Journal Article
Hungary: Economists in a Socialist Planning System
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History of Political Economy (1981) 13 (3): 580–599.
Published: 01 September 1981
... fundamental contradictions arising from the need to find a
proper place for economic rationality within the value system,
and, on the other, of reconciling the forecasts and expectations
-which could not, of course, be based on experience-with the
existing politicoeconomic situation...
Journal Article
Adam Smith and the Welfare Cost of Optimism
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History of Political Economy (1997) 29 (2): 185–200.
Published: 01 June 1997
... to the
highest bidders, whose expectations tend to have an optimistic bias.
That forecasting abilities differ is a fact of life. Even if expectations
are unbiased in the aggregate, there are always optimists, pessimists, and
realists. Efficiency requires that productive resources are controlled...
Journal Article
Inference to the Best Model of the Consumption Function
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History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 493–513.
Published: 01 June 2019
.... Jan , 45 – 57 . Amsterdam : North-Holland . Bratt Elmer Clark . 1953 . “ A Reconsideration of the Postwar Forecasts ”. Journal of Business 26 ( 2 ): 71 – 83 . Bronfenbrenner M. 1948 . “ The Consumption Function Controversy ”. Southern Economic Journal 14 ( 3 ): 304...
Journal Article
Ta-Chung Liu's Exploratory Econometrics
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History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 140–165.
Published: 01 December 2011
... Specification in Simultaneous Equation Estimation . Econometrica 29.2 : 139 – 70 . Foote Richard J. Waugh Frederick V. . 1958 . Results of an Experiment to Test the Forecasting Merits of Least Squares and Limited Information Equations . Econometrica 26.4 : 607 – 8 . Fromm Gary...
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