...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...

... Macroeconomics That Fisher and Wicksell Did Not? Quarterly Journal of Economics 115.4 : 1375 -1409. Burns, E. M. 1929 . Statistics and Economic Forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 24.166 : 152 -63. Christ, C. F. 1983 . The Founding of the Econometric Society...

...Walter A. Friedman The Harvard Economic Service pioneered the business of economic forecasting by publishing a weekly newsletter on economic conditions, starting in 1922. The Harvard forecasting model, developed by the statistician and economist Warren Persons, gained international renown for its...

... to forecast supplies of various agricultural products. Forecasting represents an interesting case for studying the development of inferential methods, as analysts receive regular feedback on the effectiveness of their inferences when forecasts are compared with actual events. Statistical Inference...

...Robert W. Dimand Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters . By Friedman Walter A. . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press , 2014 . xi ; 273 pp. Hardcover $29.95 . Copyright 2015 by Duke University Press 2015 References Cox Garfield V...

...Robert S. Goldfarb; H. O. Stekler Duke University Press 2000 Alexander, Sidney. 1958 . Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting. The Economic Journal 68.270 : 288 -301. Backhouse, Roger. 1997 . Truth and Progress in Economic Thought . Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar...

...Thomas A. Stapleford From 1910–1940, the practice of business and the practice of economics came to inform one another in novel ways, a reconfiguration that included the emergence of econometrics. The core locus for this intersection came from the rise of commercial forecasting—whether analyses...

...Verena Halsmayer The 1960s were the glorious age of large-scale, “economy-wide” macroeconometric models, which enabled forecasts and simulations of the quantitative effects of certain policy changes within systems of simultaneous equations. This article is concerned (1) with the form and character...

... Newman. London: Macmillan. Glover, W. H. 1952 . Farm and College . Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Green, R. M. 1926 . Batting Averages in Agricultural Forecasting. Journal of Farm Economics 8 : 174 -93. Griliches, Zvi. 1958 . The Demand for Fertilizer: An Econometric...

... on learning was espe- cially devoted to replacing the neoclassical postulate of rationality and enlarging the traditional boundaries of economics to other disciplines. In contrast, Modigliani’s focus on the ability to forecast made the maximiza- tion assumption consistent with the hypothesis...

..., Sascha, 188 Bullock, Charles, 142, 147n2 Beveridge, William, 158 60, 163 forecasting, 150 53, 157, 161, Biddle, Jeff, 18 19, 176, 179, 181 82, 164 65 Harvard Committee on Economic 198, 260 Research, 142, 162 big data. See data revolution London and Cambridge Economic Big Push proposals, 33 Service, 157...

... Isn't an Empirical Endeavor: Mandelbrot, Chaos, and the Noah and Joseph Effects. Recherche économiche 43.1-2 : 76 -99. ____. 1990 . From Mandelbrot to Chaos in Economic Theory. Southern Economic Journal 57.2 : 289 -307. Modigliani, Franco, and H. Martin Weingartner. 1958 . Forecasting...

... heralding the direction of his life s work.6 In 1973 he moved to the Central Economic Mathematical Institute (CEMI), the heart of Soviet mathemat- ical reformist economics, before joining the newly formed Institute for the Forecasting of Scienti€c and Technical Progress in 1986. Yaremenko s intellectual...

... fundamental contradictions arising from the need to find a proper place for economic rationality within the value system, and, on the other, of reconciling the forecasts and expectations -which could not, of course, be based on experience-with the existing politicoeconomic situation...

... of wel- fare losses that, though potentially fundamental, has never been explored further. Such losses occur because competition allocates resources to the highest bidders, whose expectations tend to have an optimistic bias. That forecasting abilities differ is a fact of life. Even...

... – 57 . Amsterdam : North-Holland . Bratt Elmer Clark . 1953 . “ A Reconsideration of the Postwar Forecasts ”. Journal of Business 26 ( 2 ): 71 – 83 . Bronfenbrenner M. 1948 . “ The Consumption Function Controversy ”. Southern Economic Journal 14 ( 3 ): 304 – 20...

... Specification in Simultaneous Equation Estimation . Econometrica 29.2 : 139 – 70 . Foote Richard J. Waugh Frederick V. . 1958 . Results of an Experiment to Test the Forecasting Merits of Least Squares and Limited Information Equations . Econometrica 26.4 : 607 – 8 . Fromm Gary...

... .” In The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani , 3 – 46 . Cambridge : MIT Press . Mosak J. L. 1945 . “ Forecasting Postwar Demand: III .” Econometrica 13 ( 1 ): 25 – 53 . Mueller E. 1963 . “ Ten Years of Consumer Attitude Surveys: Their Forecasting Record .” Journal of the American...

... . Economic Theory in Retrospect . Homewood, Ill. Boyarsky , A. Ia. 1972 . “On Long-Term Forecast Methods in Planned Economy”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 8 : 867 -77 Brin , M. I. , and T. S. Rychkova. 1973 . “On an Investment Lag Model”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 9...

.... Lucas and T. Sargent. London: Allen and Unwin. ____. 1985 . Properties of Some Short-Run Business Forecasts. Eastern Economic Journal 11.3 : 200 -210. ____. 1991a . Letter to authors , 2 August. ____. 1991b . Letter to authors , 5 September. ____. 1991c . Letter to authors , 14...