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Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2015) 47 (1): 201–203.
Published: 01 March 2015
...Robert W. Dimand Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters . By Friedman Walter A. . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press , 2014 . xi ; 273 pp. Hardcover $29.95 . Copyright 2015 by Duke University Press 2015 References Cox Garfield V...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2007) 39 (3): 481–510.
Published: 01 September 2007
... Macroeconomics That Fisher and Wicksell Did Not? Quarterly Journal of Economics 115.4 : 1375 -1409. Burns, E. M. 1929 . Statistics and Economic Forecasting. Journal of the American Statistical Association 24.166 : 152 -63. Christ, C. F. 1983 . The Founding of the Econometric Society...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2009) 41 (1): 57–88.
Published: 01 March 2009
...Walter A. Friedman The Harvard Economic Service pioneered the business of economic forecasting by publishing a weekly newsletter on economic conditions, starting in 1922. The Harvard forecasting model, developed by the statistician and economist Warren Persons, gained international renown for its...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2000) 32 (Suppl_1): 95–116.
Published: 01 December 2000
...Robert S. Goldfarb; H. O. Stekler Duke University Press 2000 Alexander, Sidney. 1958 . Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting. The Economic Journal 68.270 : 288 -301. Backhouse, Roger. 1997 . Truth and Progress in Economic Thought . Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy 139–174.
Published: 26 August 2021
...Laetitia Lenel The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy 53–80.
Published: 26 August 2021
... to forecast supplies of various agricultural products. Forecasting represents an interesting case for studying the development of inferential methods, as analysts receive regular feedback on the effectiveness of their inferences when forecasts are compared with actual events. Copyright © 2021 Duke...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (2): 233–265.
Published: 01 June 2017
...Thomas A. Stapleford From 1910–1940, the practice of business and the practice of economics came to inform one another in novel ways, a reconfiguration that included the emergence of econometrics. The core locus for this intersection came from the rise of commercial forecasting—whether analyses...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2017) 49 (Supplement): 158–186.
Published: 01 December 2017
...Verena Halsmayer The 1960s were the glorious age of large-scale, “economy-wide” macroeconometric models, which enabled forecasts and simulations of the quantitative effects of certain policy changes within systems of simultaneous equations. This article is concerned (1) with the form and character...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2006) 38 (Suppl_1): 9–31.
Published: 01 December 2006
... Newman. London: Macmillan. Glover, W. H. 1952 . Farm and College . Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Green, R. M. 1926 . Batting Averages in Agricultural Forecasting. Journal of Farm Economics 8 : 174 -93. Griliches, Zvi. 1958 . The Demand for Fertilizer: An Econometric...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2013) 45 (1): 1–38.
Published: 01 March 2013
... Laboratories .” HOPE 42 : 443 – 67 . Christ C. 1953 . “ Discussion [on the Development of Economic Thought] .” American Economic Review 53 ( May ): 269 – 78 . Cooper W. W. Simon H. A. . 1955 . “ Comment on Modigliani and Sauerlender .” In Short-Term Economic Forecasting...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2002) 34 (2): 291–320.
Published: 01 June 2002
... Isn't an Empirical Endeavor: Mandelbrot, Chaos, and the Noah and Joseph Effects. Recherche économiche 43.1-2 : 76 -99. ____. 1990 . From Mandelbrot to Chaos in Economic Theory. Southern Economic Journal 57.2 : 289 -307. Modigliani, Franco, and H. Martin Weingartner. 1958 . Forecasting...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (S1): 127–151.
Published: 01 December 2019
...-industrial complex forecasting I thank the participants of the 2018 HOPE conference for comments on earlier drafts, especially Yakov Feygin. Brian Wheaton was of invaluable help with Yaremenko’s econometrics. References Anchishkin Aleksandr I. Ershov Emil B. 1966 . Printsipy...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1981) 13 (3): 580–599.
Published: 01 September 1981
... fundamental contradictions arising from the need to find a proper place for economic rationality within the value system, and, on the other, of reconciling the forecasts and expectations -which could not, of course, be based on experience-with the existing politicoeconomic situation...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1997) 29 (2): 185–200.
Published: 01 June 1997
... to the highest bidders, whose expectations tend to have an optimistic bias. That forecasting abilities differ is a fact of life. Even if expectations are unbiased in the aggregate, there are always optimists, pessimists, and realists. Efficiency requires that productive resources are controlled...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2019) 51 (3): 493–513.
Published: 01 June 2019
.... Jan , 45 – 57 . Amsterdam : North-Holland . Bratt Elmer Clark . 1953 . “ A Reconsideration of the Postwar Forecasts ”. Journal of Business 26 ( 2 ): 71 – 83 . Bronfenbrenner M. 1948 . “ The Consumption Function Controversy ”. Southern Economic Journal 14 ( 3 ): 304...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 140–165.
Published: 01 December 2011
... Specification in Simultaneous Equation Estimation . Econometrica 29.2 : 139 – 70 . Foote Richard J. Waugh Frederick V. . 1958 . Results of an Experiment to Test the Forecasting Merits of Least Squares and Limited Information Equations . Econometrica 26.4 : 607 – 8 . Fromm Gary...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2012) 44 (suppl_1): 137–159.
Published: 01 December 2012
... .” In The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani , 3 – 46 . Cambridge : MIT Press . Mosak J. L. 1945 . “ Forecasting Postwar Demand: III .” Econometrica 13 ( 1 ): 25 – 53 . Mueller E. 1963 . “ Ten Years of Consumer Attitude Surveys: Their Forecasting Record .” Journal of the American...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (1976) 8 (3): 367–379.
Published: 01 September 1976
... . Economic Theory in Retrospect . Homewood, Ill. Boyarsky , A. Ia. 1972 . “On Long-Term Forecast Methods in Planned Economy”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 8 : 867 -77 Brin , M. I. , and T. S. Rychkova. 1973 . “On an Investment Lag Model”. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 9...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2001) 33 (4): 773–813.
Published: 01 November 2001
.... Lucas and T. Sargent. London: Allen and Unwin. ____. 1985 . Properties of Some Short-Run Business Forecasts. Eastern Economic Journal 11.3 : 200 -210. ____. 1991a . Letter to authors , 2 August. ____. 1991b . Letter to authors , 5 September. ____. 1991c . Letter to authors , 14...
Journal Article
History of Political Economy (2011) 43 (suppl_1): 188–210.
Published: 01 December 2011
.... Kawagoe M. . 2009 . How Different Are Non-specialists’ Forecasts from Specialists’? ESRI Discussion Paper Series No. 227 , Tokyo . Ikeo A. 1993 . Japanese Modern Economics, 1930–1945 . In vol. 9 of Perspectives in the History of Economic Thought , edited by Hébert R. F...