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Uncertainty

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Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (3): 799–819.
Published: 19 May 2020
... and Sayer ( 2000 ) reported, cohabitation can be conceptualized in many ways. It made sense at the time, but the marriage blueprint has limitations in our current era of uncertainty. It might be alright to not know where the relationship is headed for those facing uncertainty on multiple fronts. The...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (3): 315–334.
Published: 01 August 1982
... data, but instead are both valid and meaningful responses. Furthermore, eliminating these uncertain respondents would have the negative effects of distorting across survey comparisons in intentions due to shifts in aggregate uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of accurately detecting shifts in...
Journal Article
Demography (1981) 18 (3): 267–285.
Published: 01 August 1981
...S. Philip Morgan Abstract While births may be dichotomous, fertility intentions are not inherently so. Intentions are predictions about the future and, as such, are couched in considerable uncertainty. Ignoring this uncertainty hides much of what could be learned from data on fertility intentions...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (5): 1829–1854.
Published: 21 September 2018
...Brigitte Dormont; Anne-Laure Samson; Marc Fleurbaey; Stéphane Luchini; Erik Schokkaert Abstract This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis...
Includes: Supplementary data
Image
Published: 05 July 2018
Fig. 8 Uncertainty of male life expectancy at birth, as measured by the width of the 80 % posterior probability interval: Brazilian microregions, 2010. Darker colors indicate more certain estimates. The state of Bahia is highlighted with a thick border More
Image
Published: 19 August 2016
Fig. 5 Distribution of uncertainty on median household income, selected metropolitan area census tracts: ACS 2006–2010. The horizontal line represents the U.S. median value of .095. Two outlier census tracts are not shown: New York City, with a CV of 2.73, and Chicago, with a CV of 1.41 More
Image
Published: 19 August 2016
Fig. 8 Variation in uncertainty on median household income coefficient of variation based on increasing income, largest 150 metropolitan areas census tracts: ACS 2006–2010 More
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (5): 1535–1554.
Published: 19 August 2016
...Fig. 5 Distribution of uncertainty on median household income, selected metropolitan area census tracts: ACS 2006–2010. The horizontal line represents the U.S. median value of .095. Two outlier census tracts are not shown: New York City, with a CV of 2.73, and Chicago, with a CV of 1.41 ...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 67–78.
Published: 01 February 2010
...Kevin Dowd; David Blake; Andrew J.G. Cairns Abstract This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 67–81.
Published: 01 February 1997
... first two parts in dynamic simulations to examine the implications of mortality decline and of alternative forecasts of mortality for the finances of the social security system. Also, we use stochastic population forecasts to assess the influence of uncertainty about mortality decline on uncertainty...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
... sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for...
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (4): 499–510.
Published: 01 November 2000
...Peter A. Morrison Abstract This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (4): 737–756.
Published: 01 November 2005
...John Sandberg Abstract This article investigates the effects of sociometric network members’ self-reported experiences with infant mortality on nonnumeric responses regarding expected family size among women in a small Nepalese community. The hypotheses tested include (1) that uncertainty about...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (2): 439–460.
Published: 01 May 2008
...Lucie Schmidt Abstract The existing literature on marriage and fertility decisions pays little attention to the roles played by risk preferences and uncertainty. However, given uncertainty regarding the availability of suitable marriage partners, the ability to contracept, and the ability to...
Journal Article
Demography (2006) 43 (2): 383–399.
Published: 01 May 2006
... socioeconomic disparities associated with hazardous sites. However, there is considerable variation in the magnitude of racial and socioeconomic disparities found; indeed, some studies have found none. Uncertainties also exist about the underlying causes of the disparities. Many of these uncertainties can be...
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (3): 1037–1060.
Published: 17 May 2012
... advantages of transparency, replicability, reduction of uncertainty, and what may be the resulting lower vulnerability to the politicization of program forecasts. In addition, by offering with this article software and detailed replication information, we hope to marshal the efforts of the research community...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
... forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linearized versions of each process. We derive both Monte Carlo and analytic methods for estimating forecast...
Journal Article
Demography (1994) 31 (3): 375–401.
Published: 01 August 1994
...Debra Friedman; Michael Hechter; Satoshi Kanazawa Abstract This paper uses a non-standard value assumption—uncertainty reduction—to explain parenthood. We begin by reviewing the inadequacies of normative and standard rational choice explanations of shifts in fertility behavior. Then we propose a...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (4): 1363–1388.
Published: 05 July 2018
...Fig. 8 Uncertainty of male life expectancy at birth, as measured by the width of the 80 % posterior probability interval: Brazilian microregions, 2010. Darker colors indicate more certain estimates. The state of Bahia is highlighted with a thick border ...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (2): 405–426.
Published: 05 March 2019
... family members are expected to meet the long-term obligations that define kinship. These questions are important because families have traditionally served as a vital private safety net for family members. Demographic changes increase family members’ uncertainty about their relationships. Family ties are...