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Time Series Model

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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 261–283.
Published: 10 October 2012
... stationary time series models. The method is applied to sex-specific data for Sweden and state-specific data for Australia. Based on out-of-sample forecasts, the coherent forecasts are at least as accurate in overall terms as comparable independent forecasts, and forecast accuracy is homogenized across...
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Journal Article
Demography (1974) 11 (3): 483–492.
Published: 01 August 1974
...Joao L. M. Saboia Abstract Time series analysis techniques are used to model and to forecast populations. An autoregressive (AR) and a moving average (MA) model, which seem to fit the population of Sweden very well, are found. Forecasts are calculated using both models and are compared...
Journal Article
Demography (1979) 16 (4): 575–601.
Published: 01 November 1979
...John McDonald Abstract The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (3): 1171–1192.
Published: 09 June 2020
... problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (5): 1511–1534.
Published: 16 August 2016
... set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
...Robert McNown; Andrei Rogers Abstract This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age...
Journal Article
Demography (1993) 30 (3): 425–441.
Published: 01 August 1993
...Frans van Poppel; Joop de Beer Abstract This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (4): 541–568.
Published: 01 November 1983
...Kenneth C. Land; David Cantor Abstract This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (4): 675–692.
Published: 01 November 2005
.... , & Campbell , D.T. ( 1979 ). Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings . Boston : Houghton-Mifflin . Cromwell , J.B. , Labys , W.C. , & Terraza , M. ( 1994 ). Univariate Tests for Time Series Models . Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage . Davis , K...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (4): 673–677.
Published: 01 November 1984
.... 9 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1984 1984 ARIMA Model Supreme Court Decision Transfer Function Model Legal Abortion Monthly Time Series References Borst L. B. ( 1968 ). Natality and the Blackout . American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology , 101...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
..., with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 838–842.
Published: 01 June 1967
.... With each class of model one can deduce implied time series (varying parame-terswithin the class) and the output of the several classes can be compared to each other and to outside criteria, such as empirical time series. 24 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1967 1967 Social...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
... uncertainty. We apply our methods to several examples of marriage and fertility, extending them to simultaneous forecasting of multiple cohorts and to processes restricted by factors such as declining fecundity. We model the underlying linear process g t as a time-series process. In the case...
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Journal Article
Demography (1998) 35 (4): 489–496.
Published: 01 November 1998
... is based on a log- multiplicative model. Researchers appear to agree that, along with other prop- erties, a measure of segregation should be margin-free to en- able rigorous cross-section and time-series comparisons. I argue that the I p index has a number of desirable properties that make it a more...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (2): 197–212.
Published: 01 May 1983
... insight into the expected timing of events. We combine these results with empirical research on the effects of nutrition on fertility and mortality, research in medical biometeorology, and French historical demograhic and economic research to formulate our model. The resultant distributed lag system...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 97–114.
Published: 01 February 1997
... that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (3): 629–650.
Published: 01 August 2010
... in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply...
Journal Article
Demography (1999) 36 (4): 497–503.
Published: 01 November 1999
... models that estimate the influence of multiple time-invariant factors on survival over a time interval separating two samples. This approach can be used whenever the survival process can be adequately conceptualized as an irreversible single-decrement process (e.g., mortality, the transition to first...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (4): 875–883.
Published: 01 November 2008
... using a Cox proportional hazard model suggests no trend in divorce transmission. We then use dis- crete-time hazard logistic regressions to show how estimates of divorce transmission vary with how accurately we model differential exposure to risk. Our results yield increasingly small estimates...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (4): 697–712.
Published: 01 November 2002
... for subcounty areas. Although administrative and processing changes have introduced some inconsistencies into the time series, the use of IRS data for small-area PPH estimates is a topic that merits further research. Developing State-Specific Models In the analyses thus far, all counties were combined...