... been prepared from both the Family Survey and the Socio-Economic Survey. THE FERTILITY DECLINE BETWEEN 1957 AND 1966 The large decline in the crude birth rate between 1957 and 1966 is reflected in an equally large drop in the total fer- tility rate. In fact, age-specific fertility rates have declined...

...- uation for schedules of age-specific fer- tility rates. These include Brass (1960), who used polynomial fittings, and Avery (1970), who compared several distribu- tions as graduations of schedules of fer- tility rates. A further series of investigations has considered the Gompertz function...

... completed fer- tility rate of c(n) and a childspacing pattern of t(n, j), j 1,2, m, where m represents the number of age groups below the end of the childbearing period and t(n, j) stands for the proportion of c(n) attributable to the j-th age group so that E t(n, ,) = 1.0. i-I Now let the birth cohorts...

... fertility was measured by re- lating the number of unwanted births to woman-years of exposure to risk, a rather significant decline (more than a third) emerged. The greatest declines in unwanted fer- tility rates were observed among blacks and among white Catholics. The race differential still existed...

... in the explanatory framework in which hypothesis one is couched. Hypothesis one predicted the absence of a relationship between fertility and socioeconomic status for the indigenous rural population. Before examining fer- tility rates among this group, the rela- tionship within the total rural popula- tion should...

.... The developed countries appear to have gone beyond the demographic transition and to have entered an era in which fer- tility fluctuates mainly in response to influences other than those that reduced birth rates during the preceding three centuries. Certainly something unex- pected happened, and it is natural...

... of marriageable males or their employment status, should decrease the nonmarital fer- tility rate (births per 1,000 unmarried women of childbearing age) and the nonmarital fertility ratio (births to unmarried women per 1,000 total births). The complement of this argu- ment, of course, is that attractive marriage...

... such a function to the data. These in- clude Pearson Type I and Pearson Type III curves (Elderton, 1953), Lotka's normal curve (1939), Brass's poly- nomials (1960), and a Gompertz fit to the cumulative ogive of age-specific fer- tility rates (Clark, 1969, p. 177; and Martin, 1967). However, most of these methods...

...- ity rates of Taiwanese women in the year 1971 were also used to investigate the range of parameter variation (China [Taiwan], 1972). This period pattern of Conception Delay and Fertility Patterns 1971 seems to be comparable to the fer- tility rate by marriage duration obtained from the Taichung sample...

.... Thus, when combining pill-IUD users with women protected by sterilization to derive an unwanted fer- tility rate for women using PAC, and when calculating the rate when com- bining those using and those not using PAC, it was necessary to adjust for those differences. That was done by (a) multi- plying...

...-woman ratio (Kasarda, 1971), the general marital fer- tility rate (Friedlander and Silver, 1967), 635 In other words, if age structure is left uncontrolled in cross-national fertility analyses, then results will be biased and misleading. Any demographer can invent exam- ples in which age structure plays...

... 1932-36 1937-41 1942-46 .36 .37 .41 .44 .47 .48 .34 .34 .39 .31 .32 .37 .14 .19 .19 .27 .12 .09 .10 .07 .06 .12 Source I See Table 1. would have an effect on earlier child- bearing. In short, analysis of the marital fer- tility rates suggests strongly that basic changes in the tempo of childbearing...

... fertility rate (15-44), age-specific fer- on an urban-rural basis by zone for both tility rates, total fertility rate and gross 1963 and 1970. In all four zones urban reproduction rate for the whole island fertility was lower than rural fertility were calculated by applying survivor- in both 1963 and 1970...

... to the term r in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula, but also allows for age-period interactions in the pace of fer- tility postponement; and (3) the adjusted age-specific fertil- ity rate g'(a,t), which represents the fertility rate that would have been observed at age a at time t if there had been no tempo effect...

... suggested by the national fertility sur- veys, arid if wo had combined this com- pleted fertility rate with our D timing pattern. If, however, the completed size of family was tending toward a con- stant 3,350, corresponding to our A level of completed fertility, the decline in fer- tility, even with the D...

..., primarily as a means of graduation of age-specific fer- tility rates (Wicksell, 1931; Mitra, 1967; Keyfitz, 1968; Avery, 1970). Although a few authors have also recognized its potential for birth proj ections (Tekse, 1967; Stone, 1970), to the best of our knowledge no one has yet systematically investigated...

... and changes in marital fer- tility rates to the decline in the total fertil- ity rate of white women over the nine- teenth and early twentieth centuries showing that reductions in marital fertility rates were more important than changes in marriage rates in accounting for the 339 340 DEMOGRAPHY, volume 16...

...-44 of the actual and predicted age-specific fertility rates, respectively. As the figure indicates, the predicted age-specific fer- tility rates follow roughly the same pat- tern as the actual total fertility rates, although the profile of the predicted rates is flatter than the profile of actual...

... of equation (1). Thus to obtain the estimated rate for a particular cell, one multiples the effects for that cell and the typical value. male age effects, but at a higher duration fertility by wife's age and husband's age (15-19) the husband's age depresses fer- is shown in Table 6 and displayed in tility...

...-44 173 93 1 1 31 7 40 Total 1263 293 141 90 191 318 230 Percent 100.0 23.2 11.2 7.1 15.1 25.2 18.2 GRAND TOTAL, Grand Total 4600 1227 480 300 667 1217 709 Percent 100.0 26.7 10.4 6.5 14.5 26.5 15.4 * Col (2 Cols(3) (7») tility rates for each of the three eate- births shown in Table 5. In order to do...