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Tempo effects

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Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 841–861.
Published: 04 June 2011
...Máire Ní Bhrolcháin Abstract Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 1–16.
Published: 01 February 2001
...Hans-Peter Kohler; Dimiter Philipov Abstract Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (2): 511–534.
Published: 15 February 2018
... likely to transition into marriage than less-educated women. Finally, although the tempo effect is only weakly significant, women who moved in within the first year of their sexual relationship demonstrated lower odds of marrying than did women who deferred cohabiting for over a year. Relationship...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
Published: 01 August 2021
... of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1797–1819.
Published: 19 September 2014
... any degree of realism it may or may not have—is that it produces a simple mathematical model in which changes in period mean ages completely determine the presence and extent of tempo effects. Criticisms have been leveled at the BF approach. Notably, a number of authors have stated...
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Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 97–124.
Published: 01 February 2010
... of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex...
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (2): 563–582.
Published: 01 April 2023
... reopens the debate on the prospect of lowest-low fertility because it can no longer be explained by tempo effects and shows no signs of reversal. Korea may become the first OECD country to resemble the “low-fertility trap” ( Lutz et al. 2006 ), in which self-reinforcing mechanisms result in a continued...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2004) 41 (4): 801–819.
Published: 01 November 2004
...-Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates . Demography , 38 , 17 – 28 . 10.1353/dem.2001.0010 Zeng Y. ( 2002 ). Adjusting Period Tempo Changes With an Extension of Ryder’s Basic Translation Equation . Demography , 39 , 269 – 85 . Timing Effects...
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (2): 631–654.
Published: 01 April 2021
.... Second, we contribute to fertility research taking a counterfactual approach. Usually this literature studies a tempo effect on period measures of fertility, based on synthetic cohorts, such as TFR (e.g., Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 ; Dharmalingam et al. 2014 ; Kohler and Ortega 2002 ; Kohler...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (2): 269–285.
Published: 01 May 2002
... period age-parity-specific fertility rates are extended a sufficient number of years into the future (e.g., 35 years), with changing period tempo, but assuming a constant quantum and an invariant shape of the schedule. They derived a simple and effective quantum adjustment formula2: TFR*(t) = TFR(t) / (1...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (1): 61–88.
Published: 01 February 2022
... the decline in cohort fertility? With longer spacing, mothers will be older at each parity, and this tempo effect makes period fertility measures, such as TFR, downward-biased estimates of cohort fertility ( Bongaarts 1999 ; Hotz et al. 1997 ; Ní Bhrolcháin 2011 ). Hence, a rapidly expanding use of sex...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2201–2221.
Published: 06 November 2017
... contemporary migration trends. However, because migration rates represent the compound experience of different cohorts, they can be distorted by tempo effects, which artificially inflate or deflate the period measure of a demographic event because of a rise or fall in the mean age at which the event occurs...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 17–28.
Published: 01 February 2001
.... It merely provides an improved reading of the period fertility measure, which reduces the tempo distortion. n a recent paper, Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) proposed an adjusted version of the period total fertility rate (TFR (t)) in- tended to minimize tempo effects distortions in the observed TFR(t) due...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
... as the visual assessment of the results, clearly point to the model with the cohort effect included. This rationale is supported by the vast demographic literature on the quantum and tempo effects in fertility (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 ). In particular, we refer to the recent postponement and subsequent...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (2): 707–729.
Published: 01 April 2022
... that a comprehensive evaluation of disruption requires not only comparisons between migrants and nonmigrants in some aspect of fertility, but also an investigation of the relationship between quantum and tempo effects by birth cohort and age. This is what we do here, using longitudinal population-register data...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (1): 173–184.
Published: 06 November 2013
... volatile and possibly misleading indicator because of tempo effects. Although we agree that tempo effects are important, they are not the focus of this note. We study the robustness of MKB’s main result and thus use the same indicator as MKB. 3 We exclude Hong Kong, Macao, Monaco, and Singapore...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 589–603.
Published: 01 November 2003
... way, but these effects are small and do not vary in this illustration. The last three factors the tempo effect, infecundity, and competition are poten- tially powerful in explaining very low fertility. Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) showed that adjustments for fertility delay (Ft), the postponement...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (4): 1451–1475.
Published: 04 July 2014
... be just as satisfied with their family as those with one daughter and would therefore have the same rate of not wanting more children. We find a strong tempo (postponement) effect on period fertility in India. Figure  3 shows a steady increase in mean age at childbearing at the national level...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (1): 321–344.
Published: 01 February 2021
... ; Bongaarts and Sobotka 2012 ; Schoen 2004 ). By including all cohort information, CALC circumvents the confounding effect of the period tempo effect on the expectation of childless life. In this way, CALC is an alternative solution to period tempo distortions in the study of first-birth behavior...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (1): 25–41.
Published: 01 February 2002
... be- cause aggregate analysis does not distinguish single loss from multiple loss within fami- lies, but also because period NBRs, like period fertility measures, are inflated by tempo effects (cf. Bongaarts and Feeney 1998). The rapid expansion and contraction of inci- dence rates in Thailand make...