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Journal Article
Tempo and the TFR
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Demography (2011) 48 (3): 841–861.
Published: 04 June 2011
...Máire Ní Bhrolcháin Abstract Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion...
Journal Article
Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula
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Demography (2001) 38 (1): 1–16.
Published: 01 February 2001
...Hans-Peter Kohler; Dimiter Philipov Abstract Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects...
Journal Article
Transitions From Sexual Relationships Into Cohabitation and Beyond
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Demography (2018) 55 (2): 511–534.
Published: 15 February 2018
... likely to transition into marriage than less-educated women. Finally, although the tempo effect is only weakly significant, women who moved in within the first year of their sexual relationship demonstrated lower odds of marrying than did women who deferred cohabiting for over a year. Relationship...
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Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
Published: 01 August 2021
... of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out...
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View articletitled, Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries
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for article titled, Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement
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Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1797–1819.
Published: 19 September 2014
... any degree of realism it may or may not have—is that it produces a simple mathematical model in which changes in period mean ages completely determine the presence and extent of tempo effects. Criticisms have been leveled at the BF approach. Notably, a number of authors have stated...
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Journal Article
Multivariate analysis of parity progression–based measures of the total fertility rate and its components
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Demography (2010) 47 (1): 97–124.
Published: 01 February 2010
... of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex...
Journal Article
Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility
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Demography (2004) 41 (4): 801–819.
Published: 01 November 2004
...-Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates . Demography , 38 , 17 – 28 . 10.1353/dem.2001.0010 Zeng Y. ( 2002 ). Adjusting Period Tempo Changes With an Extension of Ryder’s Basic Translation Equation . Demography , 39 , 269 – 85 . Timing Effects...
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (2): 563–582.
Published: 01 April 2023
... reopens the debate on the prospect of lowest-low fertility because it can no longer be explained by tempo effects and shows no signs of reversal. Korea may become the first OECD country to resemble the “low-fertility trap” ( Lutz et al. 2006 ), in which self-reinforcing mechanisms result in a continued...
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View articletitled, Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in Cohort Fertility in South Korea
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for article titled, Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in Cohort Fertility in South Korea
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy
Open Access
Demography (2021) 58 (2): 631–654.
Published: 01 April 2021
.... Second, we contribute to fertility research taking a counterfactual approach. Usually this literature studies a tempo effect on period measures of fertility, based on synthetic cohorts, such as TFR (e.g., Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 ; Dharmalingam et al. 2014 ; Kohler and Ortega 2002 ; Kohler...
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View articletitled, Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy
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for article titled, Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of ryder’s basic translation equation
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Demography (2002) 39 (2): 269–285.
Published: 01 May 2002
... period age-parity-specific fertility rates are extended a sufficient number of years into the future (e.g., 35 years), with changing period tempo, but assuming a constant quantum and an invariant shape of the schedule. They derived a simple and effective quantum adjustment formula2: TFR*(t) = TFR(t) / (1...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (1): 61–88.
Published: 01 February 2022
... the decline in cohort fertility? With longer spacing, mothers will be older at each parity, and this tempo effect makes period fertility measures, such as TFR, downward-biased estimates of cohort fertility ( Bongaarts 1999 ; Hotz et al. 1997 ; Ní Bhrolcháin 2011 ). Hence, a rapidly expanding use of sex...
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View articletitled, Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades
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for article titled, Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates
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Demography (2001) 38 (1): 17–28.
Published: 01 February 2001
.... It merely provides an improved reading of the period fertility measure, which reduces the tempo distortion. n a recent paper, Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) proposed an adjusted version of the period total fertility rate (TFR (t)) in- tended to minimize tempo effects distortions in the observed TFR(t) due...
Journal Article
Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends
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Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2201–2221.
Published: 06 November 2017
... contemporary migration trends. However, because migration rates represent the compound experience of different cohorts, they can be distorted by tempo effects, which artificially inflate or deflate the period measure of a demographic event because of a rise or fall in the mean age at which the event occurs...
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View articletitled, Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends
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for article titled, Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
... as the visual assessment of the results, clearly point to the model with the cohort effect included. This rationale is supported by the vast demographic literature on the quantum and tempo effects in fertility (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 ). In particular, we refer to the recent postponement and subsequent...
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View articletitled, Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
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for article titled, Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the Tempo and Quantum of Fertility?
Open Access
Demography (2022) 59 (2): 707–729.
Published: 01 April 2022
... of disruption requires not only comparisons between migrants and nonmigrants in some aspect of fertility, but also an investigation of the relationship between quantum and tempo effects by birth cohort and age. This is what we do here, using longitudinal population-register data for the entire Finnish...
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View articletitled, Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the <span class="search-highlight">Tempo</span> and Quantum of Fertility?
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for article titled, Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the <span class="search-highlight">Tempo</span> and Quantum of Fertility?
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?
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Demography (2014) 51 (1): 173–184.
Published: 06 November 2013
... moderate. In the MKB sample, the average absolute change was three positions in 2005. 2 The use of the period TFR is subject to an ongoing debate among demographers. The TFR is a rather volatile and possibly misleading indicator because of tempo effects. Although we agree that tempo effects...
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View articletitled, A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?
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for article titled, A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (6): 1949–1973.
Published: 01 December 2024
... its claims. In particular, some have noted the impact of tempo effects on fertility decline reversal. Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012) suggested that recent increases in fertility are attributable to cohort tempo fertility recuperation rather than an increase in the quantum of fertility caused...
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View articletitled, Revisiting the J-Shape: Human Development and Fertility in the United States
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for article titled, Revisiting the J-Shape: Human Development and Fertility in the United States
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?
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Demography (2003) 40 (4): 589–603.
Published: 01 November 2003
... way, but these effects are small and do not vary in this illustration. The last three factors the tempo effect, infecundity, and competition are poten- tially powerful in explaining very low fertility. Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) showed that adjustments for fertility delay (Ft), the postponement...
Journal Article
The Determinants of Low Fertility in India
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Demography (2014) 51 (4): 1451–1475.
Published: 04 July 2014
... the case. We argue that this model is most useful when the fertility transition is well underway and birth control is widespread. The Bongaarts ( 2001 ) model has proven useful as a conceptual model (for instance, many articles have focused on single components of this model: the effects of tempo, desired...
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View articletitled, The Determinants of Low Fertility in India
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for article titled, The Determinants of Low Fertility in India
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior
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Demography (2020) 57 (5): 1647–1680.
Published: 01 September 2020
... in temporal shifting of births ( tempo effects), such that births are timed to occur when parents are better positioned to bear and raise a child (Jones 2014 ; Schultz 2001 ). Empirically, fertility has been observed to decline during periods of hardship, such as conflict, disease exposure...
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View articletitled, Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior
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for article titled, Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior
Includes: Supplementary data
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