Search Results for Subjective probabilities

... survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival...

...Fig. 1 Distribution of subjective survival probabilities, men and women of all ages below the target ...

...Fig. 1 Distribution of subjective probability of survival (weighted) ...

... to be roughly in line with the 2004 life tables, the subjective expectations of women suggest that female life expectancies estimated by the SSA might still be on the high side. 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2008 2008 Survival Probability Life Table Survivor Function...

..., subject to the current mortality level and the age of the father. Finally, this paper examines (1) probabilities of a father being outlived by at least one of two or three sons, (2) probabilities of a mother or of both parents being outlived by a son, and (3) the probability that at least one of two sons...

...Robert Schoen Abstract Cross-product ratios (αs), which are structurally analogous to odds ratios, are statistically sound and demographically meaningful measures. Assuming constant cross-product ratios in the elements of a matrix of multistate transition probabilities provides a new basis both...

...Juan C. Elizaga Summary The most significant results of a survey in Greater Santiago in 1962 by the Latin American Demographic Center are presented in this paper. The population studied had slightly more than 2 million inhabitants at the time the survey was taken. A probability sample was drawn...

...Madeline Smith-Johnson Abstract Self-rated health (SRH) is consistently related to mortality and morbidity. Yet, health ratings are subjective and reflect an individual's social context. Prior work has found differences in the structure of SRH—that is, in how self-assessments relate to underlying...

... of the number of true centenarians. It seems likely that instead of the 10,326 centenarians reported in the 1960 census there were at most only about 3,700. Overstatement of ages seems to be particularly the case among those who claim to be aged 110 or over, and it is believed that there probably are no persons...

...David P. Smith Abstract When age-specific death rates are available for single year ages any of several formulas may be used to estimate the probability of dying in an age interval, 5 q x . For 5-year age intervals, however, the simplest formulas are usually not as precise as some that are more...

...Theodore P. Gerber; Karine Torosyan Abstract The economic impact of remittances on migrant-sending countries has been a subject of debate in the scholarly literature on migration. We consider the topic using a household-level approach. We use a new survey, “Georgia on the Move,” to examine migrant...

... differential equation with time-dependent coefficients. The growth process represented by the model is subject to the effects of immigration, war, prosperity, and a so-called “cultural” factor. Specifically, the equation assumes that the rate of growth for a particular year is the result of positive factors...

...Rachel Margolis; Mikko Myrskylä Abstract A major component driving cross-country fertility differences in the developed world is differences in the probability of having additional children among those who have one. Why do people stop at having only one child? We hypothesize that the experience...

... with rich survey data collected in 2011 on a representative sample of immigrant households, to estimate the long-run effects of receiving legal amnesty. Immigrants who were not eligible for the amnesty have a 14% lower probability of working in the formal sector a decade later, are subject to more severe...