Search Results for Stochastic Approach

... by women who have “passed over” the upper age limit of their reproductive spans has also been developed. This is particularly useful in estimating the “effective retention” of IUD. DEMOGRAPHY Volume 8, Number 3 August 1971 A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF IUD: EXAMPLE OF TAIWAN...

... and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linearized versions of each process. We derive both Monte Carlo and analytic methods for estimating forecast...

...Francesco C. Billari; Rebecca Graziani; Eugenio Melilli Abstract This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. ( 2012 ), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional...

... to sequential decision making, the instability of desired fertility reflects temporal changes in the economic and noneconomic constraints faced by the couple and stochastic distur- bances that affect fertility decisions throughout the childbearing years. Al- though the static approach permits changes...

... of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression...

...Kelvyn Jones; Ron Johnston; David Manley; Dewi Owen; Chris Charlton Abstract We develop and apply a multilevel modeling approach that is simultaneously capable of assessing multigroup and multiscale segregation in the presence of substantial stochastic variation that accompanies ethnicity rates...

...Zachary Zimmer; Chi-Tsun Chiu Abstract Adopting a multistate life table approach, this study estimates number of years the very old in China expect to live in an independent living arrangement (alone or with spouse only)—an estimate we term “independent living life expectancy” (ILLE)—as opposed...

... analyzed the accuracy of population projections in one of two usually disjoint ways: either by analyzing mathematical models for population growth, or by empirical analysis of past projections. This paper is one of apparently few to compare approaches based on a stochastic population model and on empirical...

... of the parameter certain forecasts a ¿ nding 6. Moreover, as we show in the next section, the fan chart approach can also be adapted to carry out stochastic stress tests of hypothetical mortality scenarios, as well as to provide probability forecasts. 7, These data are available online at httpwww.lifemetrics.com...

... dependency ratio (Lee and Tuljapurkar 1994). Fore- casters at SSA and the U.S. Census Bureau are well aware of these problems; but the problems are inherent to scenario- based forecasting, which is the reason for developing the much more complicated approach of stochastic forecasting (see Lee 1996). While...

... , S.H. ( 1982 ). Relations Between Individual Life Cycles and Population Characteristics . American Sociological Review , 47 , 253 – 64 . 10.2307/2094967 Sen , A.K. ( 1976 ). Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement . Econometrica , 44 , 219 – 31 . 10.2307/1912718...

... to The American Sociological Review ; George C. Myers et al. , “The Duration of Residence Approach to a Dynamic Stochastic Model of Internal Migration: A Test of the Axiom of Cumulative Inertia,” Eugenics Quarterly , XIV, 2 (June, 1967), 121–26; and Robert McGinnis and John E. Pilger, “On a Model for Temporal...

...) for our BHM model, IIASA, and the UN. The median projections for BHM and IIASA are similar, but the IIASA 80 % interval is much wider than the BHM 80 % interval Our approach yields stochastic trajectories that can fluctuate around the projected life expectancy. By contrast, the IIASA method samples...

..., and proposed models. In view of this current activity, any assessment made now of the contributions of these models can be only tentative and should consider also prospects for the future. The present approach to assessment will be made in three parts: a description of recent developments in natality models...

... . 10.2105/AJPH.53.7.1031 17. Sheps, M. C., and Perrin, E. B. 1963. The Distribution of Birth Incovered tervals under a Class of Stochastic Fertility Models. Fifth International Biometric Conference . 18. Stycos, J. M. 1962. A Critique of the Traditional Planned Parenthood Approach...

... be related to some macroeconomic variables. However, instead of building a structural model to study causality, we first begin with a reduced-form approach to study the relationship between the latent factor and the observable factor. By doing so, we aim to provide an alternative perspective on understanding...

...: Measurement and Use in Fertility Models. Unpublished paper presented at the Seminar on Natural Fertility, Institut National d’Études Démographiques and International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Paris, March 1977. Willis , R. J. ( 1973 ). A New Approach to the Economic Theory...

... and synthesize the vast quantitative literature. I The purpose of this article is to present an approach toward the formulation of such a model. Our proposed model of mortality relates death to biological processes, genetic endowments, prenatal and postnatal environmental hazards, age, and stochastic factors...

... ; Permanyer and Scholl 2019 ; Smits and Monden 2009 ; van Raalte and Caswell 2013 ; Zuo et al. 2018 ). The graphical approach taken with dominance analysis reveals a range of age quantile ranks over which one age-at-death distribution gives better mortality outcomes than another. This is similar...

... Index of Mortality and Morbidity . HSMHA Health Reports , 86 , 347 – 54 . 10.2307/4594169 Talbot, L. 1996. “A Statistical Fuzzy Grade of Membership Approach to Unsupervised Clustering With Application to Remote Sensing.” PhD dissertation, Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University...