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Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
... of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (1): 79–95.
Published: 01 February 2001
...Scott M. Lynch; J. Scott Brown Abstract In this research we develop a model of mortality rates that parameterizes mortality deceleration and compression, permits hypothesis tests for change in these parameters over time, and allows for formal gender comparisons. Our model fits mortality data well...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 193–202.
Published: 01 February 2009
... conditions for the validity of the GSS model. GSS estimated a regression based on Eq. (2): NFR = a + bSu2 + e, where e is a station- ary error term. GSS could not reject the hypothesis that the slope parameter (b) is unity, and took that as evidence consistent with their model. But the statistical test...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (2): 213–226.
Published: 01 May 1983
... population (cf. United Nations, 1980). The birth rate is inferred from the intercept of a straight line; the level of mortality is inferred from the slope of that line. The estimation procedure inte- grates Brass's one-parameter logit mor- tality system with recently developed equations generalizing stable...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (1): 51–71.
Published: 03 January 2014
... To winnow these 640,000 simulated cohorts down to a realistic subset, I estimate a Gompertz model on each aggregated cohort 13 and keep only the ones that fall inside a parallelogram formed around the intercept and log-slope parameters estimated from the 2,352 historical European cohorts collected...
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View articletitled, Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model
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for article titled, Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (4): 923–934.
Published: 01 November 2010
... Birth 0.0702 0.0246 0.0007 Second Birth 0.0043 0.0003 0.0001* Note: All parameters are spline slopes indicating change in log-hazard per month. *p < .05; **p < .01; p < .001 930 Demography, Volume 47-Number 4, November 2010 The results are displayed graphically in Figure 1, where we plot...
Journal Article
Demography (2010) 47 (1): 67–78.
Published: 01 February 2010
... upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (5): 1975–2004.
Published: 28 August 2019
..., and cohort parameters. 8 Moreover, recent studies have shown that these new methods can be very sensitive to model parameterization in ways that are not likely to be obvious to applied researchers (Bell and Jones 2015b ; Luo 2013 ; Luo et al. 2016 ; Pelzer et al. 2014 ). In short, some progress...
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View articletitled, Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Effects
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for article titled, Bounding Analyses of Age-Period-Cohort Effects
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2004) 41 (3): 385–415.
Published: 01 August 2004
... to the standard Gompertz mortality rate evaluated at age Xi + t; is a vector of effect parameters; is Gompertz s constant scaled to represent the mortality rate at age 35; and is an ancillary parameter, the slope of the hazard rates above age 35. It is clear from Eq. (1b) that the parameter for age...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 285–298.
Published: 01 August 1983
.... As a first step, we introduce as one parameter of the model the slope of M(B) at E in the form: M'(E) = -yIE, where y O. The value of the function and its slope at a point are clearly not sufficient to specify the function completely. We can, however, use these two facts to aid us in representing...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (3): 881–893.
Published: 04 February 2014
... defined nodes and estimated from the data constant y 0 and slope parameters s 1 , s 2 , . . . . The model also included time-constant and time-varying covariates denoted by x ijk ( t ), with parameters measuring their effect. I also included a woman-level residual (or random effect...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Marriage Duration and Divorce: The Seven-Year Itch or a Lifelong Itch?
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for article titled, Marriage Duration and Divorce: The Seven-Year Itch or a Lifelong Itch?
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2012) 49 (1): 23–47.
Published: 04 January 2012
.... The piecewise models estimate the slope parameters in separate two-year, age-related segments rather than as a single linear parameter. These models provide some insight as to whether the effects of instability persist by estimating the influence of family structure experiences between ages 1 and 3 on age 3...
View articletitled, Family Structure Transitions and Changes in Maternal Resources and Well-being
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for article titled, Family Structure Transitions and Changes in Maternal Resources and Well-being
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (3): 421–427.
Published: 01 August 1997
... an additional 4.7%. Stable population values of the slope parameter, (AL- VL)/O are shown in Table 1. They range from .041 to .044, a bit below the regression value of .047. For eo values between 60 and 80, the stable value increases with eo' but only slightly. For observed populations, the bivariate...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (4): 1343–1361.
Published: 20 June 2018
.... Analogously, Kannisto ( 2000 ) used the so-called C α-statistics—the shortest age range in which α % of all deaths occur. Thatcher et al. ( 2010 ) observed compression if the slope parameter in a logistic mortality model increased with time. We show in the following section that different definitions...
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Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (4): 1273–1301.
Published: 10 July 2019
... of particular types of household debt. In our primary models, the behavior problems trajectory (slope) is estimated as a continuous linear parameter. The models take the following form: 1 BP ti = BP 0 i + BP 1 i AGE ti + E ti , where the behavior problems outcome ( BP...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Rising Household Debt and Children’s Socioemotional Well-being Trajectories
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for article titled, Rising Household Debt and Children’s Socioemotional Well-being Trajectories
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (5): 1687–1714.
Published: 24 May 2013
... = 1, . . ., p ) are nodes that must be specified by the analyst, and ( l = 0, . . . , p ) are slope parameters to be estimated. Piecewise linear splines, , are also defined for covariates with values that vary continuously during a housing episode: namely, the age of children, woman’s age...
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View articletitled, Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course
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for article titled, Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2000) 37 (2): 187–192.
Published: 01 May 2000
... as that in the unconstrained model. The variance ratio for the slope parameter estimate b1 meanwhile is 97.5%, implying no reduction in variance. Be- cause the birth probabilities are functions of both parameters, the reduction in variance in the constrained model is simi- larly large for both birth probabilities...
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (2): 337–364.
Published: 02 March 2016
..., and regression path estimates WB HRS CODA AHEAD Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Growth Parameter Means a Intercept IWR 6.21*** .04 5.31*** .09 5.38*** .04 3.61*** .14 Slope IWR –0.73*** .08 –0.61*** .04 –0.86*** .08 –1.19*** .05 Intercept ML...
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View articletitled, Estimating the Co-Development of Cognitive Decline and Physical Mobility Limitations in Older U.S. Adults
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for article titled, Estimating the Co-Development of Cognitive Decline and Physical Mobility Limitations in Older U.S. Adults
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (4): 617–637.
Published: 01 November 1990
... off at 7.82 years of schooling, whereas 624 Demography, Vol. 27, No.4, November 1990 Table 3. Selected Parameter Estimates From Models Imposing a Linear Trend on the Processes of Educational and Occupational Attainment Males Females Coefficient Intercept Slope Change Intercept Slope Change...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 355–370.
Published: 01 August 1988
...-exhibited a pattern of migration in the post-labor force ages that differed slightly from that of the 13-parameter model migration schedule illustrated in Figure 1. The age profile took on the form of an "upward slope" without any retirement peak-a 9-parameter reduced version of the basic model migration...
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