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Seasonal Component

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Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (2): 305–318.
Published: 01 June 1966
... para aislar los componentes epidemicoe en las series de tiempode la mortalidad. SUMMARY Birth rates, marriage rates, and death rates computed on a monthlybasishave exhibited relatively stable seasonal patterns over a period of years. Elimination of these seasonal fluctuations facilitates...
Journal Article
Demography (1994) 31 (2): 321–346.
Published: 01 May 1994
...David A. Lam; Jeffrey A. Miron; Ann Riley Abstract This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (4): 541–568.
Published: 01 November 1983
... suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (3): 1091–1118.
Published: 14 May 2018
... height, conditional on the mean. The relative magnitude of the coefficients is the most striking. In absolute value, the seasonality coefficient is one-third of the mean coefficient. In other words, reducing the standard deviation of the seasonal component of consumption by 10 % would have equivalent...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (4): 673–677.
Published: 01 November 1984
... study. Demographic time series are generally nonstationary, have strong seasonal components, and are se- rially dependent-thus violating many of the assumptions necessary to employ classical statistical tests (Box and Tiao, 1975). With econometric techniques, it is possible to account more adequately...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 13–30.
Published: 01 February 1986
... in Rural Egypt 29 smoothing process with end-point wraparound. Assessing the sensitivity of the results to the range of the smoothing window and the band width did not produce important improvements. 13 In an attempt to describe the seasonal component of a series by an approach connected with fourier...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (3): 397–411.
Published: 01 August 1990
... evidence, however, for a greater seasonal component in female mortality due to either maternal mortality or a voluntary component in female mortality at very young ages (e.g., female infanticide). The nearly universal decline of seasonality in developed countries over the last century suggests that a broad...
Journal Article
Demography (1980) 17 (3): 323–339.
Published: 01 August 1980
... to measure such changes is with sample surveys which are generally too expensive to be feasible. Fortunately most places have very few seasonal units, and for those that do, the seasonal component often remains fairly stable over time. The development of inexpensive, effective indicators of sea- sonal usage...
Journal Article
Demography (1996) 33 (3): 291–305.
Published: 01 August 1996
... births per day on average, with any effects of temperature held constant. Our estimates of the effects of temperature are based on regressions that also include monthly dummies. This means that we identify the effects of temperature entirely on the ba- sis of its nonseasonal component. The seasonal...
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (3): 425–437.
Published: 01 August 1989
...Kathleen Ford; Sandra L. Huffman; A. K. M. A. Chowdhury; Stan Becker; Hubert Allen; Jane Menken Abstract This article reports on the results of a study conducted in rural Bangladesh on the influence of maternal weight on the components of birth intervals, including gestation and intrauterine...
Journal Article
Demography (1979) 16 (1): 103–119.
Published: 01 February 1979
.... On this basis, one would expect to find that, as m increased, the reduction pro- duced by absence for x months of the year would decrease, since time to conception would be a smaller component, relatively, of the birth interval. However, this notion is not always borne out when fecundabil- ity is seasonal...
Journal Article
Demography (2007) 44 (4): 705–728.
Published: 01 November 2007
... the various components affecting the seasonality of conception or births. In the last few years, knowledge about the seasonality of conception has been widely developed through individual data obtained by noninvasive techniques, which can deter- mine whether a woman is fecund or subfecund (see Ellison 1997...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (3): 407–413.
Published: 01 August 1983
... geographic area is equal to the number of permanently occupied hous- ing units (households) times the average number of persons per household (PPH), plus the number of persons living in group quarters (e.g., college dormitories, military barracks, penal institutions). If these three components were known ex...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (5): 1723–1746.
Published: 09 September 2019
... components of the Serfling regression model (time trend, seasonality, and population at risk), the Surveillance-Serfling model can also take into account influenza morbidity indicators—such as ILI and other viral surveillance data—which may considerably improve the accuracy of the estimates (Lemaitre et al...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (4): 1217–1241.
Published: 15 January 2013
... agricultural crops and pastures, and reduces household reliance on seasonal rainfall. The measure of land quality was derived by using polychoric principal components analysis (Kolenikov and Angeles 2009 ) to combine 10 dichotomous and positively correlated time-varying land-quality measures collected...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (1993) 30 (3): 405–423.
Published: 01 August 1993
... 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1993 1993 Measle Eighteenth Century Smallpox Cyclic Component Filter Window References Alter George , & Riley James C. ( 1989 ). Frailty, Sickness and Death: Models of Morbidity and Mortality in Historical...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 79–95.
Published: 01 February 1982
... separation, let us assume for the moment that sepa- ration is both seasonal and complete. We wish to partition the months entering into the average birth interval P-44* under cyclic separation into four components according to whether they are months of separation or nonseparation and, simul- taneously...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (2): 507–530.
Published: 21 April 2011
... index series of Johansen ( 1985 ) and Mitchell ( 2003 ). 5 Next, we perform a trend/cycle decomposition of log annual real per capita GDP, using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. We use smoothing parameter 100, which ensures that the time series of the cyclical component (or deviation) of GDP does...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (2): 171–187.
Published: 01 May 1997
... of the components of the data set used here and in assisting in the analyses for a set of papers preceding this paper; David Guilkey for the statistical modeling and substantive analysis in the set of papers preceding this paper; Phil Page for the management of the Geographic Information System (GIS), parts...
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 891–913.
Published: 01 June 2023
..., the EFP researchers developed a set of standard measures to detect fertility control: the Coale‒Trussell model ( Coale and Trussel 1974 , 1978 ). They separated age-specific marital fertility rates into two components: the level of marital fertility relative to the natural fertility standard ( M...
FIGURES | View All (4)
Includes: Supplementary data