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Replacement Level

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Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 513–519.
Published: 01 November 1976
... ). Nuptiality, Fertility and Reproductivity . Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift , 14 , 125 – 157 . DEMOGRAPHV@ Volume 13, Number 4 November 1976 INFLUENCE OF INSTANTANEOUS FERTILITY DECLINE TO REPLACEMENT LEVEL ON POPULATION GROWTH: AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL s. Mitra Department of Sociology and Anthropology...
Image
Published: 01 April 2024
Fig. 1 Births are about equal when fertility is at replacement level (time t 0 ) and a generation earlier (time t 0  − µ). Births peak at an intermediate time, approximately equal to t 0  − µ  /  2. More
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country’s TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated...
FIGURES | View All (6)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 419–438.
Published: 01 April 2024
...Fig. 1 Births are about equal when fertility is at replacement level (time t 0 ) and a generation earlier (time t 0  − µ). Births peak at an intermediate time, approximately equal to t 0  − µ  /  2. ...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 657–672.
Published: 01 June 1967
... below replacement level in the last thirty years. In the South, where the decline started in the late 1920’s and early 1930’s, a large family system still prevails, and the spreading of voluntary control faces barriers setup by a long historyof cultural isolation,attachment to tradition and religion...
Journal Article
Demography (1975) 12 (3): 447–454.
Published: 01 August 1975
... for the resulting birth trajectory. Exact expressions are also found for the long-time asymptotic behavior of both the birth trajectory and the total population size when the shift in reproductive behavior is to bare replacement level. Accurate approximations to these asymptotic results are then derived and used...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 589–603.
Published: 01 November 2003
...S. Philip Morgan Abstract Nearly half of the world’s population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 467–479.
Published: 01 August 1991
.... Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility...
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (3): 431–438.
Published: 01 August 1987
... of the parameters explicitly. It is shown that under a constant stream of immigration, the population will asymptotically tend toward a constant, linear, or exponential behavior, depending on whether the fertility behavior is below, equal to, or above replacement level. All of the parameters are determined in terms...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 1059–1080.
Published: 22 June 2011
... of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent...
FIGURES | View All (7)
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 497–514.
Published: 01 June 1967
... to indicate that the changing structure of dependency and the increase in its total volume may be expected to create problems, particularly in the developing regions. Third, working life tends to become longer as a result of declining mortality, and this, combined with rising labor-force replacement levels...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (3): 641–650.
Published: 01 August 2008
...Juha M. Alho Abstract Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (3): 421–427.
Published: 01 August 1997
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen Abstract Population momentum and population aging occur when an initially growing population experiences a reduction in fertility to replacement level. Conceptually and empirically, momentum and aging express the same change, albeit on different scales. Fundamentally...
Journal Article
Demography (1992) 29 (4): 595–612.
Published: 01 November 1992
...Carl P. Schmertmann Abstract A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (1): 159–173.
Published: 01 February 1991
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen; P. Sankara Sarma Abstract In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 621–635.
Published: 01 November 2003
...Robert Schoen; Stefan Hrafn Jonsson Abstract The analysis of population momentum following a gradual decline in fertility to replacement level provides valuable insights into prospects for future population growth. Here, we extend recent work in the area by applying a new form of the quadratic...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (2): 271–281.
Published: 01 May 2008
..., the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement. 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2008 2008 Birth Interval Fertility Level Survival Ratio Large Birth Cohort Rowth Rate References Anderson B. ( 2004 ). Undercount...
Image
Published: 01 April 2024
Fig. 2 Empirical examples of peak population from United Nations projections. The top row shows projected net reproduction rate (NRR) trajectories according to the 2022 “medium” projection, with the timing t 0 when replacement-level fertility is reached. The fitted red curve is the quadratic More
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (1): 71–80.
Published: 01 February 1971
...Nathan Keyfitz Abstract If age-specific birth rates drop immediately to the level of bare replacement the ultimate stationary number of a population will be given by (9): multiplied by the present number, where b is the birth rate, r the rate of increase, the expectation of life, and R 0 the Net...
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 125–133.
Published: 01 February 1982
... comparative importance of net immigration. The U.S. total fertility rate crossed below the replacement level in 1972, for the first time since the Depres- sion, and it has fluctuated around 1.8 or 1.9 ever since. Annual births still exceed annual deaths, but that is due to a tempo- rary phenomenon of large...