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Replacement Fertility

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Journal Article
Demography (1992) 29 (4): 595–612.
Published: 01 November 1992
...Carl P. Schmertmann Abstract A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (1): 121–129.
Published: 01 February 1990
...S. Mitra Abstract The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (4): 519–536.
Published: 01 November 1984
... of schooling increase. 9 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1984 1984 Child Mortality Child Death Fertility Control Replacement Birth Parity Progression Ratio References Becker G. S. ( 1981 ). A Treatise on the Family . Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 513–519.
Published: 01 November 1976
... * = be 0 0 (1 - rμ /2), where μ is the average age at childbearing of the initial stable population. 26 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1976 1976 Stationary Population Stable Population Fertility Decline Ultimate Population Bare Replacement References Keyfitz...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (1): 65–73.
Published: 01 February 2002
...Joshua R. Goldstein Abstract In this article, I derive a simple formula for approximating the ultimate size of a population that undergoes a gradual transition to replacement fertility. I model the fertility transition by specifying a linear frontier on the Lexis surface across which a change...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (6): 2085–2111.
Published: 29 October 2020
... remains unknown, even though more developing countries are expected to reach below-replacement fertility levels. Set in China between 2010 and 2016, this study examines whether an increase in family size reduces parental investment received by the firstborn child. Using data from the China Family Panel...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 125–133.
Published: 01 February 1982
...Thomas J. Espenshade; Leon F. Bouvier; W. Brian Arthur Abstract This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 467–479.
Published: 01 August 1991
.... Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (3): 641–650.
Published: 01 August 2008
...Juha M. Alho Abstract Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (2): 271–281.
Published: 01 May 2008
..., the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement. 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2008 2008 Birth Interval Fertility Level Survival Ratio Large Birth Cohort Rowth Rate References Anderson B. ( 2004 ). Undercount...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (4): 1581–1599.
Published: 27 September 2011
... is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate...
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Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (1): 159–173.
Published: 01 February 1991
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen; P. Sankara Sarma Abstract In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (3): 421–427.
Published: 01 August 1997
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen Abstract Population momentum and population aging occur when an initially growing population experiences a reduction in fertility to replacement level. Conceptually and empirically, momentum and aging express the same change, albeit on different scales. Fundamentally...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 589–603.
Published: 01 November 2003
...S. Philip Morgan Abstract Nearly half of the world’s population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (3): 431–432.
Published: 01 August 1984
...Thomas J. Espenshade 12 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1984 1984 Stationary Population Crude Birth Rate Fertility Schedule Annual Birth Replacement Fertility References Coale A. J. ( 1972 ). Alternative Paths to a Stationary Population . In C...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 1059–1080.
Published: 22 June 2011
... of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent...
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Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (2): 693–719.
Published: 05 April 2018
... conducted in 2000 and multiple other sources had all but confirmed that fertility in China had dropped to well below the replacement level in the preceding decade (Feeney and Yuan 1994 ; Guo 2004a , b ; Retherford et al. 2005 ; Zhang and Zhao 2006 ). Even those who were skeptical of data quality...
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Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 226–248.
Published: 01 March 1968
... enrollment rates, (b) constant fertility—improving educational enrollment rates, (c) declining fertility—constant educational enrollment rates, and (d) declining fertility—improving educational enrollment rates. The growth, age structure, replacement, and educational attainment rates of the labor force...
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (1): 71–80.
Published: 01 February 1971
... of bare replacement the ultimate stationary number of a population will be given by (9): multiplied by the present number, where b is the birth rate, r the rate of increase, eo the expectation of life, and Ro the Net Reproduction Rate, all before the drop in fertility, and p. the mean age of childbearing...