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Replacement Fertility

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Journal Article
Demography (1992) 29 (4): 595–612.
Published: 01 November 1992
...Carl P. Schmertmann Abstract A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (1): 121–129.
Published: 01 February 1990
...S. Mitra Abstract The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes...
Journal Article
Demography (1984) 21 (4): 519–536.
Published: 01 November 1984
... of schooling increase. 9 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1984 1984 Child Mortality Child Death Fertility Control Replacement Birth Parity Progression Ratio References Becker G. S. ( 1981 ). A Treatise on the Family . Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 513–519.
Published: 01 November 1976
... * = be 0 0 (1 - rμ /2), where μ is the average age at childbearing of the initial stable population. 26 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1976 1976 Stationary Population Stable Population Fertility Decline Ultimate Population Bare Replacement References Keyfitz...
Image
Published: 01 April 2024
Fig. 1 Births are about equal when fertility is at replacement level (time t 0 ) and a generation earlier (time t 0  − µ). Births peak at an intermediate time, approximately equal to t 0  − µ  /  2. More
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (6): 2003–2012.
Published: 01 December 2022
... declining fertility rates, which may eventually fall below replacement (and in some populations already are). Therefore, although different models of fertility transmission across generations reach different conclusions, depopulation is likely under any model if, in the future, even higher fertility...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 939–963.
Published: 01 June 2023
... fertility. We evaluate this possibility by focusing on Japan, a society characterized by half a century of below-replacement fertility and widely shared family norms that associate eldest (male) children with specific family obligations. Harmonic mean models allow us to quantify the contribution of changes...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (1): 65–73.
Published: 01 February 2002
...Joshua R. Goldstein Abstract In this article, I derive a simple formula for approximating the ultimate size of a population that undergoes a gradual transition to replacement fertility. I model the fertility transition by specifying a linear frontier on the Lexis surface across which a change...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (6): 2085–2111.
Published: 29 October 2020
... remains unknown, even though more developing countries are expected to reach below-replacement fertility levels. Set in China between 2010 and 2016, this study examines whether an increase in family size reduces parental investment received by the firstborn child. Using data from the China Family Panel...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1982) 19 (1): 125–133.
Published: 01 February 1982
...Thomas J. Espenshade; Leon F. Bouvier; W. Brian Arthur Abstract This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed...
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 467–479.
Published: 01 August 1991
.... Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility...
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (3): 641–650.
Published: 01 August 2008
...Juha M. Alho Abstract Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2008) 45 (2): 271–281.
Published: 01 May 2008
..., the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement. 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2008 2008 Birth Interval Fertility Level Survival Ratio Large Birth Cohort Rowth Rate References Anderson B. ( 2004 ). Undercount...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (4): 1581–1599.
Published: 27 September 2011
... is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate...
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Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 419–438.
Published: 01 April 2024
...Fig. 1 Births are about equal when fertility is at replacement level (time t 0 ) and a generation earlier (time t 0  − µ). Births peak at an intermediate time, approximately equal to t 0  − µ  /  2. ...
FIGURES
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (6): 1721–1746.
Published: 01 December 2023
... generally not found evidence of a consistent relationship between fertility changes and preceding child mortality trends, thus failing to support the hypotheses that insurance or replacement motivations affect society-level reproductive patterns ( Kuate Defo 1998 ). Researchers have speculated that findings...
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Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (1): 159–173.
Published: 01 February 1991
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen; P. Sankara Sarma Abstract In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (3): 421–427.
Published: 01 August 1997
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen Abstract Population momentum and population aging occur when an initially growing population experiences a reduction in fertility to replacement level. Conceptually and empirically, momentum and aging express the same change, albeit on different scales. Fundamentally...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 589–603.
Published: 01 November 2003
...S. Philip Morgan Abstract Nearly half of the world’s population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement...