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Published: 15 March 2013
Fig. 6 Life expectancy projections for Japan. The plots include the UN projections and BHM median projections, with 80 % and 95 % prediction intervals. The life expectancy values used to estimate our model are shown by grey circles. Panel a shows projections for 2005–2010 with a sample
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Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (4): 441–450.
Published: 01 November 1971
...Tore Schweder Abstract A population projection is a prediction of a random vector variable X T . which represents the size and age/sex distribution of the population in year T . The population is assumed to be closed and to develop according to fixed and known schedules of birth and death...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (1): 51–68.
Published: 01 February 1972
...Jacob S. Siegel Abstract The history of the official U. S. projections of population and house-holds in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to methodology and the relation of the methodology to the accuracy of the projections. The introduction of the cohort-component...
View articletitled, Development and accuracy of <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of population and households in the united states
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for article titled, Development and accuracy of <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of population and households in the united states
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (4): 639–652.
Published: 01 November 1990
...Dennis A. Ahlburg; James W. Vaupel Abstract The U. S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality...
Journal Article
Demography (1987) 24 (4): 649–661.
Published: 01 November 1987
... Projections . Washington. D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Office . Pittenger , D. B. ( 1976 ). Projecting State and Local Populations . Cambridge, Mass. : Ballinger . Schroeder , E. C. ( 1985 ). Report B: 1986 Projected Population, Labor Force, and Unemployment . Berkeley...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 127–135.
Published: 01 February 1986
... on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration...
View articletitled, Accounting for migration in cohort-component <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of state and local populations
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for article titled, Accounting for migration in cohort-component <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of state and local populations
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (2): 101–115.
Published: 01 May 1969
...Jacob S. Siegel; Donald S. Akers Abstract The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau...
View articletitled, Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span>
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for article titled, Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span>
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 185–197.
Published: 01 March 1968
... mortalidad, e invesamente con edad de fertilidad media programada en proyecciones de mediano termino. Summary The significance in patterns of mortality for projections of population have been examined by projecting test stable populations classified by sex and age with constant fertility and declining...
Journal Article
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 593–599.
Published: 01 March 1965
... (January, 1963). BIRTH PROJECTIONS WITH COHORT MODELS* JAMES M. BESHERS Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Center for Urban Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Harvard University RESUMEN El proposiio del estudio es exponer un modelo de proyecciones de la natalidad con...
Journal Article
Demography (1967) 4 (2): 442–452.
Published: 01 June 1967
... no “casado, esposa presenie” puede, aumentar a tal nivel que a largo plazo, cuanto menor sea el número de personas que se casen, mayor será el número de viviendas. Summary This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued...
Journal Article
Demography (1993) 30 (4): 593–606.
Published: 01 November 1993
... of Chicago Chronicle , 12 ( 9 ), 4 – 4 . World Bank. Forthcoming. Health Sector Priorities in Developing Countries . Washington, DC: World Bank. Demography, Vol. 30, No.4, November 1993 The Contours of Demography: Estimates and Projections* Samuel H. Preston Population Studies Center University...
Journal Article
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 134–139.
Published: 01 March 1965
... división se mantendrá sin cambios . La teoria de las cadenas de Markov es útil en el estudio de la movilidad geográfica a largo plazo; sin embargo, se hacen necesarias algunas modijicaciones específicas. White Population Population Projection South Central Geographic Mobility Census Division...
View articletitled, A Stochastic analysis of geographic mobility and population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of the census divisions in the United States
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for article titled, A Stochastic analysis of geographic mobility and population <span class="search-highlight">projections</span> of the census divisions in the United States
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 741–757.
Published: 01 November 2003
...Stanley K. Smith; Jeff Tayman Abstract A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
...Leontine Alkema; Adrian E. Raftery; Patrick Gerland; Samuel J. Clark; François Pelletier; Thomas Buettner; Gerhard K. Heilig Abstract We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes...
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View articletitled, Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries
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for article titled, Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (4): 1341–1362.
Published: 17 January 2013
...Fanny Janssen; Leo J. G. van Wissen; Anton E. Kunst Abstract We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 827–852.
Published: 04 December 2012
...Yi Zeng; Kenneth C. Land; Zhenglian Wang; Danan Gu Abstract This article presents the core methodological ideas and empirical assessments of an extended cohort-component approach (known as the “ProFamy model”), and applications to simultaneously project household composition, living arrangements...
FIGURES
View articletitled, Household and Living Arrangement <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach
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for article titled, Household and Living Arrangement <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
...Fig. 6 Life expectancy projections for Japan. The plots include the UN projections and BHM median projections, with 80 % and 95 % prediction intervals. The life expectancy values used to estimate our model are shown by grey circles. Panel a shows projections for 2005–2010 with a sample...
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View articletitled, Bayesian Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of Life Expectancy for All Countries
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for article titled, Bayesian Probabilistic <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span> of Life Expectancy for All Countries
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2037–2051.
Published: 01 August 2013
.... But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0...
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View articletitled, Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
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for article titled, Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 915–937.
Published: 01 June 2023
...Crystal CY Yu; Hana Ševčíková; Adrian E. Raftery; Sara R. Curran Abstract Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed...
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View articletitled, Probabilistic County-Level Population <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
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for article titled, Probabilistic County-Level Population <span class="search-highlight">Projections</span>
Includes: Supplementary data
Image
Published: 01 April 2024
Fig. 2 Empirical examples of peak population from United Nations projections. The top row shows projected net reproduction rate (NRR) trajectories according to the 2022 “medium” projection, with the timing t 0 when replacement-level fertility is reached. The fitted red curve is the quadratic
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