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Probabilistic forecasting

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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
... Probabilistic forecasting Diffusion models Cohort models Fertility Marriage Forecasting uncompleted cohort experience is a key task in demography. Diffusion models—which describe how a population adopts a new innovation, technology, or behavior—are potentially useful in this respect. We analyze...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
...Adrian E. Raftery; Jennifer L. Chunn; Patrick Gerland; Hana Ševčíková Abstract We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
... follow directly from the probabilistic model applied. The approach also allows the inclusion of expert judgments, together with their uncertainty, in the model framework. The second aim of this article is to provide a flexible and consistent method for forecasting the age patterns of fertility...
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Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (5): 1627–1650.
Published: 10 September 2015
... would require probabilistic projections of net international migration for all countries. Lutz and Goldstein ( 2004 ), in answering the question of how to deal with uncertainty in population forecasting, pointed to the need for simple approaches to probabilistic forecasting of migration. Our article...
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Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (2): 405–427.
Published: 01 May 2009
... ( Suppl. ), 88 – 117 . 10.2307/2808052 Sanderson W.C. , Scherbov S. , O’Neill B.C. , & Lutz W. ( 2004 ). Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting . International Statistical Review , 72 , 157 – 66 . 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00230.x Schmitt R.C...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1559–1577.
Published: 05 July 2017
... approaches provide probabilistic mortality forecasts, we focus not only on the evaluation of median point estimates but also on the calibration of prediction intervals. We use empirical frequencies to evaluate the uncertainty estimates of probabilistic forecasts; empirical frequencies give the proportion...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2287–2296.
Published: 27 November 2013
... ..............................................................................................1845–1871 Morgan, S. Philip. See Jennifer B. Kane ......................................................2129–2150 Myrskylä, Mikko, and Joshua R. Goldstein. Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility...
Journal Article
Demography (2001) 38 (4): 537–549.
Published: 01 November 2001
... of judgment is reduced by using extrapo- lation to forecast mortality. Recently Lee and Carter (1992; henceforth LC) devel- oped a new extrapolative method for modeling and forecast- ing mortality based on the analysis of long-term trends, and used it to make probabilistic forecasts of U.S. mortality to 2065...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1933–1954.
Published: 15 August 2014
.... More recently, stochastic (or probabilistic) population forecasting has received growing attention by researchers and, to a lesser extent, by forecasting agencies (see Land 1986 ). Three main approaches to stochastic population forecasting can be roughly distinguished in the literature (Keilman et al...
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Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (3): 815–839.
Published: 12 July 2011
... chain Monte Carlo United Nations World Population Prospects Based on projections of fertility, mortality and migration, population forecasts predict the future size and composition of populations. These forecasts are used for many purposes, including predicting the demand for food, water...
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Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (6): 2025–2041.
Published: 10 October 2017
.... ( 2012 ). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA , 109 , 13915 – 13921 . Schmertmann C. , Zagheni E. , Goldstein J. , & Myrskyla M. ( 2014 ). Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (6): 2037–2051.
Published: 01 August 2013
... forecasting Extrapolation In this article, we address a practical problem faced by the United Nations Population Division: how to modify the Lee-Carter method to project mortality over a long time horizon to the year 2100 for 196 countries and areas. The Lee-Carter method is based on extrapolating...
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Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (4): 1147–1166.
Published: 04 August 2015
...–1939 birth cohort to 22 % for the 1965–1969 birth cohort, the latest for which childlessness can be calculated without forecasting (Kreyenfeld and Konietzka forthcoming ). 4 Thus, approximately four-fifths of the German population will be represented by our data. This number would likely be higher...
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Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (1): 23–49.
Published: 01 February 2005
..., Belgium : Ordina Editions . Keyfitz , N. ( 1991 ). Experiments in the Projection of Mortality . Canadian Studies in Population , 18 ( 2 ), 1 – 17 . Lee, R. 1998. “Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting.” In Frontiers of Population Forecasting , edited by W. Lutz, J.W...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 127–135.
Published: 01 February 1986
...Stanley K. Smith Abstract Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based...
Journal Article
Demography (2021) 58 (4): 1373–1399.
Published: 01 August 2021
..., without interruption, over a period of time. If the trends change, the freeze rate method may be preferable. Using age-specific fertility rates from the HFD countries before 1960 as prior data, the Bayesian forecasting method ( Schmertmann et al. 2014 ) produces a probabilistic forecast that includes...
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Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 67–81.
Published: 01 February 1997
.... Ogawa (Eds.), The Family, the Market and the State in Ageing Societies (pp. 135 – 57 ). Cambridge : Oxford University Press . Lee, R. 1996. “Probabilistic Population Forecasting.” Paper presented at meeting at IIASA on population forecasting, Laxenburg, Austria. Lee R.D...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (2): 673–699.
Published: 09 March 2017
...Adeline Delavande; Jinkook Lee; Seetha Menon Abstract We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able...
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Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 741–757.
Published: 01 November 2003
... of America 2003 2003 Forecast Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error Population Projection Current Population Report Census Count References Alho J.M. ( 1990 ). Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting . International Journal of Forecasting , 6 , 521 – 30 . 10.1016/0169-2070...
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (3): 835–862.
Published: 21 March 2019
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Includes: Supplementary data