.... We introduce the concept of stochastic diffusion, which both expands the theoretical coverage of the models to include period effects and allows evaluation of the probabilistic forecast uncertainty. Applications to marriage and fertility rates illustrate the usefulness of these new methods and extend...

... age the age-specific fertility rates of that period. In this article, we propose a new methodology for probabilistic projections of the TFR that could be applied to all countries of the world. The goal is to produce probabilistic projections that would ultimately be part of the population...

...Jan M. Hoem 13 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1975 1975 Markov Chain Life Table Fertility Model Probabilistic Fertility Finite State Space References Du Pasquier L. Gustav ( 1912 ). Mathematische Theorie der Invaliditatsversicherung . Mitteil...

... Biology 6:376-381. Goldman, Noreen. 1977. The Demography of Kin. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. Cambridge: Harvard University. Heer, D. M., and D. O. Smith. 1968. Mortality Level, Desired Family Size, and Population In- crease. Demography 5:104-121. Hoern, J. M. 1970. Probabilistic Fertility Models...

... Stephanie J. , & Godley Frank H ( 1970 ). Natality Statistics Analysis, United States, 1965–1967 . Washington, D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Office . Hoom J. M. ( 1970 ). Probabilistic Fertility Models of the Life Table Type . Theoretical Population Biology , I , 12 – 38...

... projections have been probabilistic, based on Bayesian hierarchical models for fertility and mortality ( Raftery, Alkema et al. 2014 ; Raftery et al. 2012 ; United Nations 2022b ). While these methods have been extended to include probabilistic migration ( Azose and Raftery 2015 ; Azose et al. 2016...

... of Mortality . Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , 107 , 449 – 80 . Hoem Jan M. ( 1970 ). Probabilistic Fertility Models of the Life Table Type . Theoretical Population Biology , 1 , 12 – 38 . 10.1016/0040-5809(70)90040-7 Keyfitz Nathan ( 1982 ). Choice of Function...

... for all the world’s countries, one needs probabilistic projections of the main demographic processes affecting national populations: fertility, mortality, and international migration. This article is part of a research program aiming to do this. The UN produces many of its current (deterministic...

... follow directly from the probabilistic model applied. The approach also allows the inclusion of expert judgments, together with their uncertainty, in the model framework. The second aim of this article is to provide a flexible and consistent method for forecasting the age patterns of fertility...

.... , Gerland , P. , Clark , S. J. , Pelletier , F. , Buettner , T. , & Heilig , G. K. ( 2011 ). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries . Demography, , 48, , 815 – 839 . 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 . Bijak , J. ( 2006 ). Forecasting...

... the same expert-based probabilistic approach we propose: that is, experts could be called to express opinions on the baseline population as well. Moreover, we did not explicitly consider the uncertainty that arises by moving from summary indicators of fertility, mortality, and migration to the full age...

... 15 , ..., W 45 ). Because they are probabilistic, bTFR estimators automatically produce uncertainty measures as well as point estimates. We describe this method in detail elsewhere (Schmertmann and Hauer 2019 ). We briefly summarize here. The proportion of lifetime fertility experienced...

... , 1642 – 1652 . 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)62204-1 Alkema L. , Raftery A. E. , Gerland P. , Clark S. J. , Pelletier F. , Buettner T. , & Heilig G. K. ( 2011 ). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries . Demography , 48 , 815 – 839...

.... , Buettner T. , & Heilig G. K. ( 2011 ). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries . Demography , 48 , 815 – 839 . Angus J. E. ( 1994 ). The probability integral transform and related results . SIAM Review , 36 , 652 – 654 . Bijak J...

... P. , Clark S. J. , Pelletier F. , Buettner T. , & Heilig G. K. ( 2012 ). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries . Demography , 48 , 815 – 839 . 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 Barbieri M. ( 2013 ). Mortality in France...

... a multiple birth. We weighted all results to obtain accurate statistics. Before probabilistically assigning a birthdate to deceased and absent children, the imputation program first uses the ages of coresident children to notch the age-specific fertility schedule for each mother by setting the birth...

... ..............................................................................................1845–1871 Morgan, S. Philip. See Jennifer B. Kane ......................................................2129–2150 Myrskylä, Mikko, and Joshua R. Goldstein. Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility...

...Jan M. Hoem; Randi Selmer Abstract This paper studies the influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility by applying life table methods to data for cohorts of Danish women born in 1926–1955, collected in retrospective interviews made in 1975. For each five-year cohort, the data have been...

.... , & Raftery , A. E. ( 2016 ). Age-specific mortality and fertility rates for probabilistic population projections . In R. Schoen (Ed.), The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis: Vol. 39. Dynamic demographic analysis (pp. 285 – 310 ). Cham, Switzerland : Springer...