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Population momentum
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Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (3): 421–427.
Published: 01 August 1997
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen Abstract Population momentum and population aging occur when an initially growing population experiences a reduction in fertility to replacement level. Conceptually and empirically, momentum and aging express the same change, albeit on different scales. Fundamentally...
Journal Article
Demography (2002) 39 (1): 65–73.
Published: 01 February 2002
... in fertility is instantaneous. Gradual transitions result from variations in the slope of this frontier. This framework can be used to reproduce and understand previous studies of population momentum and gradual transitions. 12 1 2011 © Population Association of America 2002 2002 Demographic...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (4): 1581–1599.
Published: 27 September 2011
...Thomas J. Espenshade; Analia S. Olgiati; Simon A. Levin Abstract This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution...
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Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (1): 159–173.
Published: 01 February 1991
...Young J. Kim; Robert Schoen; P. Sankara Sarma Abstract In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (1): 131–134.
Published: 01 February 1978
...P. Cerone; A. Keane Abstract The momentum of population growth problem of Keyfitz is generalized to contain a gradual change of the age-specific birth rate to the level of bare replacement. Assuming a time dependence for the net maternity function of the form , R being the net reproductive rate, we...
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (1): 71–80.
Published: 01 February 1971
... Statistical Association , 31 , 457 – 473 10.2307/2278370 . DEMOGRAPHY Volume 8, Number 1 February 1971 ON THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH Nathan Keyfitz Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley 94720 Abstract-If age-specific birth rates drop immediately to the level of bare...
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 621–635.
Published: 01 November 2003
...Robert Schoen; Stefan Hrafn Jonsson Abstract The analysis of population momentum following a gradual decline in fertility to replacement level provides valuable insights into prospects for future population growth. Here, we extend recent work in the area by applying a new form of the quadratic...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (4): 1375–1400.
Published: 31 July 2017
... to the one-child program itself. I project that these estimates will double by 2060, largely because of population momentum in the counterfactual projection. Then I build on these findings to challenge the core consensus in recent literature: namely, that the fall in China’s fertility to very low levels...
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Published: 27 September 2011
Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (3): 455–466.
Published: 01 August 1991
.... but it is a meaningful demographic quantity. It reflects a population’s log momentum, or the amount of growth built into a population’s nonstable age distribution. The rate at which the Kullback distance moves toward 0 is neither constant nor monotonic. At any point in time, however, it decreases by the covariance...
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in If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments)
> Demography
Published: 05 April 2018
Fig. 4 From Figure 3 of the original article (Goodkind 2017a ), which shows population momentum. The original figure caption read as follows: “Averted births in China based on the 16-country comparator, 1970–2060: Averted births to existing mothers versus averted mothers. Averted births
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Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 419–438.
Published: 01 April 2024
... Mathematical demography Nonstable population dynamics Population decline Fertility decline Population momentum Even though much of the world has had below-replacement fertility for decades, few countries are actually declining in size. Those populations that are declining are doing so only many...
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Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (4): 977–1003.
Published: 01 August 2023
... prevalence of delinquency among youth ( Baumer et al. 2021 ). Taken together, these trends suggest population momentum toward accelerating declines in the overall incarceration rate as the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration ages out of criminal justice control and the current generation...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (2): 743–768.
Published: 05 April 2018
...Fig. 4 From Figure 3 of the original article (Goodkind 2017a ), which shows population momentum. The original figure caption read as follows: “Averted births in China based on the 16-country comparator, 1970–2060: Averted births to existing mothers versus averted mothers. Averted births...
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Journal Article
Demography (1977) 14 (1): 77–86.
Published: 01 February 1977
... ( 1969 ). Age Distribution and the Stable Equivalent . Demography , 6 , 261 – 269 . 10.2307/2060395 Keyfitz , Nathan ( 1971 ). On the Momentum of Population Growth . Demography , 8 , 71 – 80 . 10.2307/2060339 Keyfitz , Nathan , & Flieger , W. ( 1968 ). World...
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (4): 1619–1624.
Published: 15 November 2011
...., Analia S. Olgiati, and Simon A. Levin. On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum.........................................1581–1599 Everett, Bethany. See Randall Kuhn .....................................................................183–209 Favreault, Melissa M. See Michael S. Rendall...
Journal Article
Demography (1978) 15 (1): 135–137.
Published: 01 February 1978
.... , & Keane , A. ( 1978 ). The Momentum of Population Growth with Time Dependent Net Maternity Function . Demography , 15 , 131 – 134 . 10.2307/2060495 Frauenthal , J. C. ( 1975 ). Birth Trajectory Under Changing Fertility Conditions . Demography , 12 , 447 – 454 . 10.2307/2060827...
Journal Article
Demography (1976) 13 (4): 507–512.
Published: 01 November 1976
... ). The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection . New York : Dover . Keyfitz , Nathan ( 1968 ). Introduction to the Mathematics of Population . Reading, Mass. : Addison-Wesley . Keyfitz , Nathan ( 1971 ). On the Momentum of Population Growth . Demography , 8 , 71 – 80 . 10.2307/2060339...
Journal Article
Demography (1975) 12 (3): 447–454.
Published: 01 August 1975
... Fisher R. A. ( 1958 ). The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection . 2nd, rev. ed. New York : Dover Publications . Keyfitz Nathan ( 1968 ). Introduction to the Mathematics of Population . Reading : Addison-Wesley . Keyfitz Nathan ( 1971 ). On the Momentum of Population...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1797–1819.
Published: 19 September 2014
... with population momentum, we can consider “fertility momentum,” defining it within the cohort model as the trajectory of period fertility if postponement were to come to an instant halt. More specifically, freeze cohort postponement by letting S ( c )= S ( c 0 ) for all cohorts born after c 0 , the youngest...
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