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Population Projection

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Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 382–409.
Published: 01 March 1968
... demografiá y a la teoría matemática del desarrollo de la población. Summary This article presents an elementary approach to the study of the population projection-matrix, the reverse (or inverse) projection-matrix, the process of population growth generated by the projection-matrix, the “prior” process...
Journal Article
Demography (1964) 1 (1): 56–73.
Published: 01 March 1964
... de poblicaón. Latent Root Matrix Operator Intrinsic Rate Population Projection Ordinary Method References 1. Leslie, P. H. “On the Use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics,” Biometrika , Vol. 33, pp. 184 ff. 2. Bernardelli, Harro. “Population Waves,” Journal...
Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (1): 259–275.
Published: 01 March 1966
... Demography” (draft, mimeographed); “Matrix Multiplication as a Technique of Population Analysis,” The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly , XLII (October, 1964), 68–84; “The Population Projection as a Matrix Operator,” Demography , I (1964), 56–73. 3 E. M. Murphy, “A Generalization of Stable Population...
Image
Published: 01 June 2023
Fig. 1 The process of generating a probabilistic population projection for each county in Washington State. The processes of generating probabilistic trajectories of the various components are shown in rectangular boxes: TFR (total fertility rate) in pink, sex-specific e 0 (life expectancy More
Journal Article
Demography (2003) 40 (4): 741–757.
Published: 01 November 2003
...Stanley K. Smith; Jeff Tayman Abstract A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group...
Journal Article
Demography (1971) 8 (4): 441–450.
Published: 01 November 1971
...Tore Schweder Abstract A population projection is a prediction of a random vector variable X T . which represents the size and age/sex distribution of the population in year T . The population is assumed to be closed and to develop according to fixed and known schedules of birth and death...
Journal Article
Demography (1969) 6 (2): 101–115.
Published: 01 May 1969
... of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections. 8 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1969 1969 Family Size Total Fertility Rate Current Population Survey Population Projection Spacing Pattern References Akers Donald S. ( 1965...
Journal Article
Demography (1968) 5 (1): 185–197.
Published: 01 March 1968
... mortalidad, e invesamente con edad de fertilidad media programada en proyecciones de mediano termino. Summary The significance in patterns of mortality for projections of population have been examined by projecting test stable populations classified by sex and age with constant fertility and declining...
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 915–937.
Published: 01 June 2023
...Fig. 1 The process of generating a probabilistic population projection for each county in Washington State. The processes of generating probabilistic trajectories of the various components are shown in rectangular boxes: TFR (total fertility rate) in pink, sex-specific e 0 (life expectancy...
FIGURES | View All (7)
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1965) 2 (1): 134–139.
Published: 01 March 1965
... división se mantendrá sin cambios . La teoria de las cadenas de Markov es útil en el estudio de la movilidad geográfica a largo plazo; sin embargo, se hacen necesarias algunas modijicaciones específicas. White Population Population Projection South Central Geographic Mobility Census Division...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 127–135.
Published: 01 February 1986
... on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration...
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (1): 51–68.
Published: 01 February 1972
...Jacob S. Siegel Abstract The history of the official U. S. projections of population and house-holds in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to methodology and the relation of the methodology to the accuracy of the projections. The introduction of the cohort-component...
Journal Article
Demography (1990) 27 (4): 639–652.
Published: 01 November 1990
...Dennis A. Ahlburg; James W. Vaupel Abstract The U. S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality...
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Published: 31 July 2017
Fig. 2 Population projected for China based on its own fertility and counterfactual fertility scenarios: 1970, 2015, and 2060 (numbers in millions). Data are projections from Table 2 . The nightmare scenario was projected by Song and Li ( 1980 ) More
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Published: 01 August 2022
Fig. 4 Population projections by age for the 285 coastal U.S. counties. Panel a shows the population age distribution (in millions) in 2020 with the lollipop lines and the projected population in 2100 in the hollow boxes. Panel b shows the change in three demographic age-groups between 2020 More
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Published: 01 June 2023
Fig. 2 Projected total population for select geographies. Aggregated projected population numbers for Washington State are shown in the top left panel. Projected population totals for King, Whitman, and Ferry Counties are shown in the other panels. To accommodate the differences in population More
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
... of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950–1995 and using the estimated model to forecast for the subsequent 10 years...
FIGURES | View All (8)
Includes: Supplementary data
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Published: 01 December 2023
Fig. 2 Scatterplot comparing projected population totals with population totals from the 2020 Census for 173 sampled blocks in California More
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Published: 31 July 2017
Fig. 4 Projected population by age and sex for China and for the averted populations (under the 16-country comparator) due to “later, longer, fewer” (1970–1979) and one-child restrictions (1980–2015): 1980, 2020, and 2060 More
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Published: 01 August 2022
Fig. 6 Projections of the percentage of non-Hispanic White population and the median age in U.S. coastal counties in 2100, stratified by the risk to 3 feet of sea-level rise. Risk projections are from Hauer et al. (2016) . The riskiest counties are likely to have more racial/ethnic diversity More