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Population Forecast
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Journal Article
Demography (1991) 28 (2): 261–274.
Published: 01 May 1991
...Stanley K. Smith; Terry Sincich Abstract Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (3): 461–474.
Published: 01 August 1988
...Stanley K. Smith; Terry Sincich Abstract A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable...
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (2): 405–427.
Published: 01 May 2009
...Guangqing Chi Abstract Recent developments in urban and regional planning require more accurate population forecasts at subcounty levels, as well as a consideration of interactions among population growth, traffic flow, land use, and environmental impacts. However, the extrapolation methods...
Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (2): 315.
Published: 01 May 1988
...Joel E. Cohen 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1988 1988 An Erratum for this chapter can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2061412 Correction Cohen, Joel E. 1986. Population Forecasts and Confidence Intervals for Sweden: A Comparison of Model-Based...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
...Joel E. Cohen Abstract This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population...
Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (2): 235–248.
Published: 01 May 1983
...Esther C. Schroeder; Donald B. Pittenger Abstract Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net...
Journal Article
Demography (1977) 14 (3): 363–368.
Published: 01 August 1977
...Donald B. Pittenger Abstract This paper discusses the nature of population forecasting and provides guidelines for standards that are in line with good professional practice yet do not stifle creativity or technical advances. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1977 1977...
Journal Article
Demography (1996) 33 (4): 523–528.
Published: 01 November 1996
...Jeff Tayman; David A. Swanson Abstract Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation...
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1933–1954.
Published: 15 August 2014
...Francesco C. Billari; Rebecca Graziani; Eugenio Melilli Abstract This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. ( 2012 ), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional...
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Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
...Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Peter W. F. Smith; Jakub Bijak; James Raymer; Jonathan J. Forster Abstract In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns...
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Includes: Supplementary data
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in Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm
> Demography
Published: 15 August 2014
Journal Article
Demography (1974) 11 (3): 483–492.
Published: 01 August 1974
...Joao L. M. Saboia Abstract Time series analysis techniques are used to model and to forecast populations. An autoregressive (AR) and a moving average (MA) model, which seem to fit the population of Sweden very well, are found. Forecasts are calculated using both models and are compared...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (3): 575–594.
Published: 01 August 2005
...Nan Li; Ronald Lee Abstract Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 49–66.
Published: 01 February 1997
...%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs. 9 1 2011 ©...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (2): n1.
Published: 01 May 1997
... FOR FORECASTING POPULATION, HEALTH CARE COSTS, AND PENSION COSTS" ROBERT W. FOGEL AND DORA L COSTA In Table 2, page 53, X for England should be 2,700. "DEATH AND TAXES: LONGER LIFE, CONSUMPTION, AND SOCIAL SECURITY" RONALD LEE AND SHRIPAD TULJAPURKAR In Table 2, page 77, the heading for the first column should...
Journal Article
Demography (1966) 3 (2): 537–544.
Published: 01 June 1966
...Andrei Rogers Summary Current population-forecasting efforts generally adopt minor variants of the cohort-survival projection method. This technique focuses on a population disaggregated into cohorts, a group of people having one or more common characteristics at a point in time and, by subjecting...
Journal Article
Demography (1997) 34 (1): 67–81.
Published: 01 February 1997
..., but is negligible in low mortality populations. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United States and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline faster than foreseen by the Social Security Administration s forecasts. Third, we combine the work...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 827–852.
Published: 04 December 2012
... the forecast errors based on comparisons of the total number of households; average household size; percentage of households with one, two to three, and four or more persons and couple-households; total population size; percentages of children, elderly (aged 65 and older), and oldest-old (aged 80 and older...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2023) 60 (3): 915–937.
Published: 01 June 2023
... recently, population projections have mostly been produced using deterministic methods, notably the cohort-component method ( Preston et al. 2001 ). Such methods do not organically produce statements of uncertainty. Uncertainty estimates are often desired to get a general idea of how precise a forecast...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
... and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linearized versions of each process. We derive both Monte Carlo and analytic methods for estimating forecast...
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