... not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts’ uncertainty. 7 1 2011 © Population Association of America 1986 1986 Forecast Error Population Projection Vital Rate Percent Confidence Interval Total Population Size An erratum...

... of America 1985 1985 Maximum Likelihood Estimator Percent Confidence Interval Fertility Transition Marital Fertility Natural Fertility References Borgan, Ø. 1984. Maximum likelihood estimation in parametric counting process models, with applications to censored failure time data...

... caused confusion. On page 630, the first sentence in the first full paragraph should read, "Approximate 95 percent confidence intervals for m and M are obtained exactly as when Glim is used". Page Charge. The Population Association of America urgently requests that a page charge of $20 per printed page...

.... This paper develops and applies meth- odology for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals for own-children estimates of age-specific birth rates and total fertility rates. It also solves for the sample size required to achieve a 95 per- cent confidence interval of ± 10 percent of the value...

...’ knowledge, the S -based measure appears preferable in actual application. 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1984 1984 Intrinsic Rate Percent Confidence Interval Young Sister Fertility Schedule Mortality Schedule References Ewbank Douglas C ( 1981 ). Age...

... - :0 :I c: a lf .. ~ I - :! Posteensal State Population Estimates rately depicted the movements of birth eohorts, which is significant since the method is not a cohort method, but they are eonsistent with the Census Bureau's estimates. Table 5 contains 95 percent confidence intervals for estimates...

... in the migrant's decision with the passage of time. The results of estimating (7) are shown in table 3. With the exception of that on the naturalization variable, all parameters are of the expected sign and significant, at least at the 10 percent confidence interval. The nonlinear specification, as adjudged...

.... The 90th percentile errors for each target year are shown in the second column of Table 6. We followed three different approaches in using these errors to construct 90 percent confidence limits: Stability in Distribution of Population Forecast Errors 471 Table 6. Actual and Predicted 90th Percentile Errors...

... of these intervals were initiated more than 10 years before the survey year; 6 percent, more than 15 years before. It would clearly be a mistake to base estimates of current breastfeeding or contraception on data for an births for which they were collected under the WFS restrictions to last closed and open intervals...

... age 20) and 16 percent were classified as "older" (age 30 or over). Parity and birth interval were combined into a single variable, with categories of "first birth," "short-inter- val subsequent birth," and "longer-in- terval subsequent birth." A short birth interval was taken as any interval less...

.... The order of magnitude of the standard de- viations for both models is the same. It is interesting to notice that for the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model Z38 and Z39 lie outside the 50 percent limits but inside the 95 percent limits. For the ARIMA (0,2, 1) model, Z38 lies inside the 50 per- cent limits, and Z39 lies...

..., although the 95 percent confidence intervals cover the value of 1.0. In these cases the models were reestimated with the upper limit of p set to I. 0 and the lower limit set to O. This rescales estimates of p to be consistent with the assumptions of the diagonal model. Acknowledgments An earlier version...

... birth and except in the highest parity, where fertility higher for the intermediate intervals exceeds intention by 40.4 percent (pre- (Table 2, third panel). Because of the lack Ta bl e 3. -A gg re ga te a n d In di vi du al In co ns is te nc y fo r Se le ct ed Li fe Cy cl e an d So ci oe co no m ic C...

... Fertility Dynamics in China: Results from the 1987 One Percent Population Survey . Population and Development Review , 15 , 297 – 322 . 10.2307/1973706 Goldman N. , Pebley A. , & Lord G. ( 1984 ). Calculation of Life Tables from Survey Data: A Technical Note . Demography , 21...

... going to use the sampling vari- ance to compute rough measures of a 95- percent confidence interval for the "true" percentage of people whose mother tongue was Italian, he would get an inter- val of (2.2, 5.2). If he used the mean- square error, the interval would be (.7, 6.7), which is considerably...

... steadily approached the expected -2/3 value, coming within the 95 percent confidence interval of that value with the earliest 567 568 DEMOGRAPHY, volume 19, number 4, November 1982 census in 1801 (slope = -0.60). They also found that when counties were dras- tically reconstituted for the first time...

... with N (ad- 21 Harald Cramer, The Elements of Probability Theory and Some of Its Applications (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1955), p. 230. justed for bias) in this interval gives us the 95 percent (at least) confidence interval estimate of the true net migration. In formulating a one-tailed test...

... between forecasted and actual mortality schedules are close across all ages, Forecasting Mortality: A Time Series Approach 655 again showing a looser correspondence as the forecast horizon widens. The MAPE statistic calculated for the 18 observed age intervals grows from 3.9 percent in 1976 to 13.6...

... for characteristics that may relate to reports of past sexual activity. Although the NLSY suffered only 5 percent attrition between 1979 and 1983, selectivity may have biased the results. In addition, the regular reinterviewing of panel respondents may influence data quality, though the direction of the effect...

...] figures are based on the event-history file for all 9,439 youths. The middle curve in each set of three is the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the proportion single; the higher and lower curves are the upper and lower bounds of the 95 percent confidence interval.9 As these plots show, the pattern of entry...