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Model selection

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Published: 19 May 2011
Fig. 2 Decision tree of model of sex selection. The two-child model consists of three decisions. The completed fertility outcomes are in boxes and the intermediate outcomes are in ovals More
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (1): 51–71.
Published: 03 January 2014
... of the cohort is frail; (2) multiple decelerations are possible; and (3) mortality selection can produce acceleration as well as deceleration. Simulations show that these patterns are plausible in model cohorts that in the aggregate resemble cohorts in the Human Mortality Database. I argue that these results...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (2): 783–811.
Published: 19 May 2011
...Fig. 2 Decision tree of model of sex selection. The two-child model consists of three decisions. The completed fertility outcomes are in boxes and the intermediate outcomes are in ovals ...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (6): 2025–2044.
Published: 02 November 2018
... this challenge by using principled model selection techniques to empirically evaluate theoretical mortality models. I test nine models of old-age death rates by fitting them to 360 high-quality data sets on cohort mortality after age 80. Models that allow for the possibility of decelerating death rates tend...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 439–462.
Published: 01 April 2024
... heterogeneity. Information is pooled across neighboring regions and smoothed over time and age. To make predictions more robust and address the issue of model selection, a Bayesian version of stacking is considered using leave-future-out validation. I apply this method to forecast mortality rates for 96 regions...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 881–902.
Published: 21 February 2013
... be used to describe state transitions and durations conditional on covariates and conditional on having observed an initial segment of the trajectory. Fitting ofthe proposed model and the corresponding model selection process are based on the observed data likelihood. We discuss the application...
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Journal Article
Demography (1983) 20 (4): 541–568.
Published: 01 November 1983
...Kenneth C. Land; David Cantor Abstract This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some...
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Published: 01 October 2022
Fig. 1 The effect of respondent Black (vs. White) race on z -score-standardized nonhome exposure outcomes across models. The first bar corresponds to the full sample of AHDC youth, the second bar corresponds to models selecting on the “fixed effects” sample, and the third bar corresponds More
Journal Article
Demography (1981) 18 (3): 389–410.
Published: 01 August 1981
... of standard assumptions about the age trajectory of the force of mortality to the analysis of a broad range of cohort mortality data for the U.S. and Swedish populations. The estimates of the degree of heterogeneity, produced under all of the selected force of mortality models, consistently indicated...
Journal Article
Demography (2022) 59 (6): 2161–2186.
Published: 01 December 2022
... ). Class inequality and political order: Social stratification in capitalist and communist societies . Berkeley : University of California Press . Raftery A. E . ( 1995 ). Bayesian model selection in social research . Sociological Methodology , 25 , 111 – 163 . Rauscher E . ( 2015...
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Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (3): 553–574.
Published: 01 August 2009
... and, using a simultaneous equation model, pay particular attention to selection bias in the effect of divorce. We also allow for the possibility that disruption may have different effects at different stages of a child’s educational career. Our results suggest that selection on time-invariant maternal...
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Published: 25 March 2020
Fig. 5 Three roles of residual frailty on aggregate mortality in the two-dimensional mortality selection model More
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (1): 189–207.
Published: 01 February 2024
... Longitudinal Study and apply a simultaneous-equations hazard model to control for observed and unobserved selection into partnerships. We develop a novel approach to identify frailty based on self-rated health. Our analysis shows that partnered individuals have significantly lower mortality than nonpartnered...
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2009) 46 (1): 103–125.
Published: 01 February 2009
....27.1.415 Moody J. ( 2001 ). “Race, School Integration, and Friendship Segregation in America.” . American Journal of Sociology , 107 , 679 – 716 . 10.1086/338954 Morris M. ( 1991 ). “A Log-Linear Modeling Framework for Selective Mixing.” . Mathematical Biosciences , 107 , 349...
Journal Article
Demography (2018) 55 (3): 1069–1090.
Published: 09 May 2018
... neighborhood deprivation and earnings. We model neighborhood selection using a conditional logit model, from which we derive correction terms. Driven by the recognition that most households prefer certain types of neighborhoods rather than specific areas, we employ a principle components analysis to reduce...
Journal Article
Demography (2020) 57 (2): 747–777.
Published: 25 March 2020
...Fig. 5 Three roles of residual frailty on aggregate mortality in the two-dimensional mortality selection model ...
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Includes: Supplementary data
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Published: 01 February 2021
Fig. 3 Out-of-sample error rate, with 95% confidence intervals calculated from bootstrapping with 100 repetitions. Testing samples are used for prediction. IBS = integrated Brier score. Cox-PH 2way = Cox proportional hazard two-way interaction model. Cox-PH 2way select = Cox proportional hazard More
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (2): 337–364.
Published: 02 March 2016
... for the influence of covariates and selective attrition. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were consistently associated with initial cognitive and physical health but had few relations with change in these measures. Fig. 1 Parallel process model development. Model A includes covariance estimates...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2011) 48 (1): 127–152.
Published: 23 February 2011
... explanatory model applies to all multiracial combinations. We also find that placing multiracial groups into a single “best race” category likely obscures the pattern of health disparities for selected groups because some multiracial adults (e.g., American Indians) tend to identify with single-race groups...
Journal Article
Demography (2016) 53 (5): 1261–1281.
Published: 16 September 2016
...Ridhi Kashyap; Francisco Villavicencio Abstract We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the “ready, willing, and able” framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB...
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Includes: Supplementary data