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Model Forecast

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Published: 12 May 2015
Fig. 3 Model fit for mortality by age to 2009 data for females (top row), forecasts for 2024 (second row), model fit and forecasts of life expectancy based on the full data set (third row), and 1975–2000 truncated data set (fourth row) More
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 261–283.
Published: 10 October 2012
... components models of simple and interpretable functions of rates. The product-ratio functional forecasting method models and forecasts the geometric mean of subpopulation rates and the ratio of subpopulation rates to product rates. Coherence is imposed by constraining the forecast ratio function through...
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Journal Article
Demography (1988) 25 (2): 315.
Published: 01 May 1988
...Joel E. Cohen 30 12 2010 © Population Association of America 1988 1988 An Erratum for this chapter can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2061412 Correction Cohen, Joel E. 1986. Population Forecasts and Confidence Intervals for Sweden: A Comparison of Model-Based...
Journal Article
Demography (1986) 23 (1): 105–126.
Published: 01 February 1986
...Joel E. Cohen Abstract This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population...
Journal Article
Demography (2017) 54 (5): 1921–1946.
Published: 25 September 2017
... that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model. 31 7 2017 25 9 2017 © Population Association...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (1974) 11 (3): 483–492.
Published: 01 August 1974
...Joao L. M. Saboia Abstract Time series analysis techniques are used to model and to forecast populations. An autoregressive (AR) and a moving average (MA) model, which seem to fit the population of Sweden very well, are found. Forecasts are calculated using both models and are compared...
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (1): 237–260.
Published: 27 October 2012
...Mikko Myrskylä; Joshua R. Goldstein Abstract In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory...
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Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (2): 673–697.
Published: 27 October 2012
... health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an extension of the stochastic extrapolative models developed for forecasting total life expectancy could be applied, but instead of projecting total mortality...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2024) 61 (2): 439–462.
Published: 01 April 2024
... heterogeneity. Information is pooled across neighboring regions and smoothed over time and age. To make predictions more robust and address the issue of model selection, a Bayesian version of stacking is considered using leave-future-out validation. I apply this method to forecast mortality rates for 96 regions...
FIGURES
Includes: Supplementary data
Image
Published: 10 October 2012
Fig. 6 (Color figure online) Forecast accuracy of coherent and independent models for different forecast horizons, showing out-of-sample RMSFE of log death rates More
Journal Article
Demography (1989) 26 (4): 645–660.
Published: 01 November 1989
...Robert McNown; Andrei Rogers Abstract This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age...
Image
Published: 12 May 2015
Fig. 4 Model fit for fertility by age to 2009 data (top row), forecasts for 2024 (second row), model fit and forecasts of TFR based on the full data set (third row), and 1975–2000 truncated data set (fourth row) More
Journal Article
Demography (1979) 16 (4): 575–601.
Published: 01 November 1979
...John McDonald Abstract The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed...
Image
Published: 05 July 2017
Fig. 2 Life expectancy at birth (left panels) and life years lost at birth (right panels) for women in Italy, Japan, and Denmark: Observed data, forecasted data using the Lee-Carter model, the Lee-Carter rotating variant (proposed by Li et al. 2013 ), and the Bohk and Rau model. Forecast years More
Journal Article
Demography (1972) 9 (4): 625–633.
Published: 01 November 1972
...Ruth Fabricant; Janice Weinman Abstract The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative method to the traditional cohort survival technique for long-run forecasting of public school enrollment by small area. In the model presented, the difference between first grade enrollment and resident...
Journal Article
Demography (2005) 42 (3): 575–594.
Published: 01 August 2005
... into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while...
Journal Article
Demography (2015) 52 (3): 1035–1059.
Published: 12 May 2015
...Fig. 3 Model fit for mortality by age to 2009 data for females (top row), forecasts for 2024 (second row), model fit and forecasts of life expectancy based on the full data set (third row), and 1975–2000 truncated data set (fourth row) ...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2019) 56 (3): 1131–1159.
Published: 28 May 2019
...Samuel J. Clark Abstract The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one-third of all countries require mortality models to infer the complete age schedules of mortality that are required to conduct population estimates, projections/forecasts, and other tasks in demography and epidemiology...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2014) 51 (5): 1755–1773.
Published: 03 October 2014
... model that includes both latent and observable factors, with the aim of better interpreting and predicting mortality dynamics. Forecasting mortality rates is a natural application of our model. Our mortality forecasting method can be seen as a combination of the explanation and extrapolation methods...
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Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Article
Demography (2013) 50 (3): 777–801.
Published: 15 March 2013
...Adrian E. Raftery; Jennifer L. Chunn; Patrick Gerland; Hana Ševčíková Abstract We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production...
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Includes: Supplementary data